Tennis Betting Advice - June 2020

9/1 angle for Andy Murray today...

Wednesday 24th June 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Battle of the Brits…
  • Kyle Edmund v Andy Murray…
  • Tiebreak prices worth taking…

Good morning. The Battle of the Brits continues at the National Tennis Centre in Roehampton today. Before we get started with a look at the headline match on day two, a couple of points from day one…

Draper withdraws, Norrie plays today…

Our 33/1 pick Jack Draper pulled out yesterday evening, due to an abdominal injury. The 18-year-old will be replaced in the draw by 24-year-old standby – and another left-hander – Ryan Peniston.

That leaves us with 12/1 Cameron Norrie as our sole outsider pick in the Outright Winner market (Each Way). Bet365 have actually nudged Norrie up to 14/1 this morning.

Peniston slots in right at the bottom of the betting, as a 100/1 rank outsider in this eight-man event.

Norrie starts his group campaign this afternoon, priced as a big favourite to beat Peniston, at 1/6 (1.17) at best. There’s no previous head-to-head form between these two, but on the rankings it’s the world No.77 v No.387.

The second point is to note that the Battle of the Brits organisers have decided to play the tournament indoors (hard court).

The original intention when the event was first announced was to play on the outside hard courts at this venue, but I guess they couldn’t risk any delays.

And of course, as is the way with these things, it looks like that would’ve been more than fine, with heatwave conditions expected in England today and tomorrow. Let’s hope there’s some decent air conditioning at the National Tennis Centre…

Kyle Edmund v Andy Murray…

The first Singles match up today is Liam Broady v James Ward (1pm). The bookies make that one a pick ‘em, with Broady around 4/5 (1.80) and Ward at Evens (2.00). According to Oddschecker, 100% of Match Winner bets have gone the way of Broady. Maybe somebody thinks they know something – but I don’t.

After that, it’s Norrie v Peniston (4pm).

Then comes the feature match of the day, Kyle Edmund v Andy Murray (5.30pm)…

The career head-to-head is 3-1 to Murray, but the bookmakers have the younger man as the clear favourite today. Edmund is 1/2 (1.50) to win, and just Evens (2.00) to win in straight sets, 2-0. I’m not sure it will be that comfortable…

As I said yesterday – and there was nothing original in that statement – Murray is a fighter, and plays to win. Expect a competitive match here. All the day one matches were strongly contested; nobody looked like they were just turning up to play for fun.

9/1 for Andy on the tiebreaks…

Murray is a top price 13/8 (2.63) to win today. I prefer to snaffle around a couple of much bigger prices in the Set Betting Correct Score markets…

With a potentially close match in store, and the indoor conditions looking like they were playing pretty fast yesterday, serve could dominate for large periods in this match. Along with both men going for two-strike tennis, to try and finish the point early or get on top in the rally.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tiebreak or two today. And if that happens, the value side of the prices would be Murray to take one of them, by the 7-6 score in the aforementioned market.

Here are some stats to back up my thinking here:

  • In their day one matches on Tuesday, Edmund won 8 of his 9 service games, and Murray won 7 out of 8
  • 8 of Murray’s last 16 indoor hard courts matches have seen one or more tiebreak sets (50%)
  • 2 of the 4 previous meetings between Edmund & Murray have gone to a tiebreak in the 1st set

The 1st Set Score and 2nd Set Score markets are where we can go for a couple of speculative price picks today. With standout odds of 9/1 for Murray to win those respective sets on a tiebreak, 7-6.

Alternatively, a market such as 1st Set Total Games with Bet365 offers 7/2 (4.50) for Over 12.5 Games in the set, which is basically a bet on the set going to a tiebreak (to either player). Eg. a 7-6 score = 13 Total Games.

As ever, I’m taking the biggest-price route, and following my opinion that Murray will make this one a close tussle…

Battle of the Brits:

Kyle Edmund v Andy Murray

  • 1st Set Correct Score – Murray 7-6 is 9/1 (10.00) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, 31/4 (8.75) Sportingbet, Bwin, 7/1 (8.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor

Latest odds here

  • 2nd Set Correct Score – Murray 7-6 is 9/1 (10.00) with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 13/2 (7.50) NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

Note: the 2nd Set score market is not available with many firms as I write. You’ll be likely to see it in-play on plenty of bookies’ sites, though.

Every match is being shown live on Amazon Prime Video.

I’ll be back tomorrow with more from this week’s events, with the Battle of the Brits our main focus.

Enjoy the tennis,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch