Tennis Betting Advice - June 2020
Challenge the host at 3/1…
Sunday 14th June 2020
In your Ones to Watch email today:
I always like to work on the brightest side of the odds. It means less winners, but greater returns in the long run…
It was a case of losing the battle but not the war yesterday, then. I named Peter Torebko as my match pick in Germany on Saturday afternoon. He was 5/6 (1.83) to beat Yannick Maden. I went for the 2-0 Set Betting score at the larger price of 2/1 (3.00).
That bigger-price pick was ultimately decided by a second-set tiebreak, which fell the way of Maden. Torebko dug in to win 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 in the end.
Directly after the match, it felt a bit like I’d talked myself out of a winner. But the bigger picture says we’re well up for the year – and on our new, ‘lockdown’ picks since May, too – by sticking resolutely to the quest for value.
On that note, two of this weekend’s new events will be worth keeping an eye on, both today, and as they continue in the weeks to come…
Short formats can produce shocks…
Day one of the Ultimate Tennis Showdown (UTS) in France was postponed, due to rain. They try again today with the Sunday schedule. It will be interesting to see how Patrick Mouratoglou’s experimental new format pans out…
With details of the scoring system being used now available, I have to say I’m a little dubious. This article sums it up quite well, with the UTS pitched as the tennis equivalent of T20 cricket.
UTS matches will be in four quarters, lasting 10 minutes each (with a timer), and played in a tiebreak format. I feel like we’ve been here before, with the short-lived ‘Turbo Tennis’ (I think it was called) at London’s O2 Arena, and ‘Tiebreak Tens’ events (again, don’t hold me to the name) both popping up and then disappearing in recent years.
I’m not sure if this need to speed tennis up is going to do much for the quality of the sport. But then again, who I am to stand in the way of progress… and with the main tours called off until August, some tennis on our screens is better than none, right?
That doesn’t mean we need to bet on it, though. Especially not from scratch without seeing this format in action.
There all sorts of innovations/ gimmicks lined up in the UTS, including the use of a ‘card’ that players can use in play to get an extra serve, for example.
This all makes for a rather unpredictable and even jumbled-looking game of tennis. Let’s see how it goes.
From a betting point of view, this short and frenzied playing format might lend itself to shocks & upsets…
The cream won’t always have time to rise to the top. As we sometimes see with short-format matches in darts and snooker, for example, the underdog can get ahead on the scoreboard, and the opponent & favourite might not have time to sort themselves out in time to turn it around.
From that respect today, the always tricky Dustin Brown at 2/1 (3.00) could be an upset contender against Matteo Berrettini. Although if the Italian is serving as big as he can (and finds his rhythm quick enough), a tiebreak situation can play into the hands of the stronger server.
Veteran left-hander Feliciano Lopez has been very reliable on serve over the years. He’s priced as the slight 6/5 outsider to get past French favourite Lucas Pouille today.
Not many bookies are dipping their toe in and pricing up UTS markets yet, it seems.
No picks for me there without a ball being hit at the new UTS event so far. But in Belgrade, Serbia, a short-format match does catch the eye at Novak Djokovic’s Adria Tour event…
Challenge the host at 3/1…
The Adria Tour is closer to ‘normal’ tennis, with the matches played best-of-three sets – although the sets are first-to-four games, with a tiebreak at 3-3, and there are no Advantages played at Deuce.
Still with me? Good. This format can also lend itself to shocks…
Novak Djokovic v Alexander Zverev
Djokovic lost 2-1 to a 5/1 underdog yesterday. That means he’s now in danger of going out of his own event in the group stage. Winning the group takes you through to the final later in the day.
Opponent Alexander Zverev won both his matches yesterday, and looking at the stats, it was encouraging to see him only racking up a total of four Double Faults. In the last couple of seasons, that serving stat has been a good measure of the young German’s form and confidence.
The head-to-head between Djokovic and Zverev is 3-3. This is the World No.1 v the World No.7. And there are 4,000 fans at this event, too. The stage is set for a decent encounter.
Zverev at 3/1 just looks too big to me. Yes, the argument is Novak will want the win and want to get to the final at the tournament that he created, on his own patch. But this is two Top 10 players going at it, and I don’t expect the 23-year-old to roll over here. Especially on clay, the surface on which Zverev has actually won his most career matches to date on.
Djokovic is just 1/5 (1.20) to win. But this one could be closer than the odds suggest.
Oddschecker aren’t playing ball again, but I’ve shopped around and listed the best prices for you below.
3pm UK time
Live on Eurosport
I’ll be back in the week. There are stacks more matches and events coming up for us.
Enjoy the tennis,