Tennis Betting Advice - June 2020

Pegula the pick at 4/1…

Saturday 6th June 2020

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • GST Tours Matchplay 120, USA…
  • Pegula v Fernandez…
  • Play starts 3pm…

Jeffrey John Wolf was a strong 6-3, 6-2 winner last night. That’s a fourth straight 2-0 win over opponent Mikael Torpegaard.

At 21 years old, and having signed his first professional contract last year, I’d say JJ Wolf is the most impressive young player that I’ve come across during our foray into the new ‘exhibition’ events over the last month or so.

JJ is also worth looking out for when serving. He has an eye-catching quirk before starting his service motion, bouncing the ball between his legs, almost basketball-skill style – with the hand speed of a juggler. I like to notice these little details…

Pegula the pick at 4/1…

We didn’t get the 2-1 score-line we were after in Spain yesterday. Roberto Bautista-Agut beat his compatriot, Pablo Carreno-Busta, 6-4, 6-4.

Call me bloody-minded, but I firmly believe there is juice in these Set Betting markets right now…

Jessica Pegula v Leylah Fernandez

In a Saturday schedule that is largely dominated by short-price favourites, there’s a women’s match in Boca Raton, Florida that gets my antenna twitching.

There’s three-set potential here. The bookies can’t make their mind up on the match odds. It’s basically 50-50 in the betting. This morning, the trend has gone slightly in favour of Fernandez, at around 8/11 (1.73). Pegula is about Evens (2.00).

I’m drawn to the ‘underdog’ option in the shape of Pegula to win 2-1. The 26-year-old American had shown some form earlier this year, beating Caroline Wozniacki on the way to reaching the final at WTA Auckland. There was no shame in losing to Serena Williams in the final.

Pegula is ranked No.80 in the world. Still very much a teenager, Fernandez is at No.118, which is fantastic for a 17-year-old.

By the time Leylah is Jessica’s age, I’d expect the Canadian to be doing some good things at the top end of the tour. For now, though, the left-handed youngster often plays out matches in a familiar style for one still learning their trade in pro-level competitive matches – with consistency the Achilles heel.

Two cases in point here. On Monday, Fernandez lost 7-6, 4-6, 7-6 against 27-year-old American, Shelby Rogers (ranked No.113). They were on court for three hours and 13 minutes. For any best-of-three-set match, men or women, that’s entering ‘epic’ territory.

Fernandez had another topsy-turvy one in the WTA Acapulco final at the start of March. Losing a two-hour, 49-minute battle with Heather Watson, 6-4, 6-7, 6-1. Of course, a 17-year-old getting to a WTA final is mighty impressive in its own right. But there is still work to be done in terms of consistency, as is be expected at this age.

This is something of a speculative pick, but that’s where we get the big odds, and 4/1 looks a decent price for Pegula to come out on the right side of a long & winding score-line here…

GST Tours Matchplay 120 – Women:

3pm UK time

  • Set Betting – Jessica Pegula to win 2-1 v Leylah Fernandez is 9/2 (5.50) with Bet365, 4/1 (5.00) Sportingbet, Bwin, 19/5 (4.80) Ladbrokes, Coral, 15/4 (4.75) BetVictor

Latest odds here

It would’ve been French Open finals weekend right now. We’re not in Paris. But I’m continuing my daily tennis analysis for you in that Roland Garros time-slot. See you tomorrow morning.

Enjoy the tennis,

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch