Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

French Open: Day 11 – Tiebreak tennis at 12/1…

Wednesday 9th June 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • French Open – Day 11…
  • Quarter Finals…
  • Gauff v Krejcikova – 10am…

Good morning and welcome to Day 11 of your French Open 2021 daily service.

On the right path…

In yesterday’s email, I reiterated two of my Ones to Watch mantras. You can’t back them all. And it only takes one…

This morning, I’m reminding myself of another. You can’t get it right every time.

After landing the 100/1 women’s French Open winner in 2020. And finding the 40/1 Each Way runner-up in 2019. It would’ve been a somewhat remarkable achievement to make it three big-price outsiders in a row. From my picks, that is. Because in terms of the women’s French Open 2021, there will be a massive-odds name in the final. And we were right to go looking for it. It’s what my Ones to Watch service is all about.

For the first time in the Open era, six of the women in the Last 8 were making their first appearance in a Grand Slam quarter final. And the bottom half of the draw will see one of these two semi-final debutants make their first-ever Grand Slam final:

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova v Tamara Zidansek

On day one of the tournament, Pavyluchenkova was 150/1 in the Outright Winner market. Zidansek was literally at the bottom of the betting list, at 1,000/1 and 500/1.

Losing the battle, winning the war…

It’s fair to say my inbox this week has been a mixed bag. A new member has gone straight for the jugular. I’ve had to take comments like this on the chin over the years:

“What a disaster – so far NO winners at all! I think I could do better with a pin! Is this your usual standard?”

On the other hand, this email from Steve confirms that our quest for value, and for finding the promising new players at big odds, is a valid one:

“I’ve just watched Kostyuk v Swiatek and it’s the first time after I’ve lost that I’ve thought that I was on the right person. There was no way that was odds on v 100/1”

I’m happy to hold my hands up and acknowledge that this tournament won’t be going on our showreel. But I do not apologise. There is no crystal ball. And I don’t go picking odds-on favourites, or backing the obvious players at the top of the betting…

At the start of the tournament, I presented the case. In the men’s, Rafael Nadal has won 13 of the last 16 French Opens, and is odds-on to win again. In the women’s, the last 13 Roland Garros titles have been claimed by 11 different players. And two of the last five were 100/1 shots (both of which, I might add, featured in our Ones to Watch reports that season).

If you want to join the conversation in the mailbag, you can email me direct. Please keep it clean. I’m on:

Quarter Finals…

Moving on to today’s French Open schedule. The quarter finals will be concluded today, and there are some great-looking match-ups…

Yesterday we saw both women’s Last 8 clashes go the absolute distance, finishing 8-6 and 9-7 in the final set (no tiebreaks in the decider at the French Open). These two have potential to go to the wire, too:

  • Coco Gauff v Barbora Krejcikova – Gauff is yet to drop a set, and is unbeaten in 9 matches on clay. Krejcikova is also on a 9-match winning streak. This is a debut Grand Slam quarter final appearance for both
  • Maria Sakkari v Iga Swiatek – Sakkari is having the best Grand Slam of her career. Swiatek is the reigning champ, and has won 11 French Open matches in a row, all in straight sets. The Greek will be looking to snap that streak

Tiebreak tennis at 12/1…

Counting the double faults is an interesting way to monitor Coco Gauff’s form. In the 1st round, the 17-year-old dumped 8 second serves long or into the net. But in her last match, the teenager didn’t cough up a single double fault. Today’s opponent Barbora Krejcikova has served just 8 double faults in total this tournament…

In the Most Double Faults market for this morning’s match (10am start), the bookies have Gauff as the favourite to take that unwanted honour. With the American at 4/5 (1.8). Krejcikova is 7/4 (2.75). The Double Faults ‘Tie’ is 5/1 (6.0).

When it comes to getting the first serve in, both women have also been performing well. In the last round, both won over 80% of their 1st Serve Points.

The oddsmakers have this match as pretty much 50-50 in the Match Winner market. It could be very close. One angle I like for a tight scoreboard is the Tiebreak and 7-6 Set Scores

  • 13 out of 86 sets played by Gauff this season have gone to a Tiebreak (15%). The teenager has won 9 of those 13 tiebreaks
  • Krecikova has won just 2 of her 7 tiebreak sets in 2021

Those figures mark Gauff out a Tiebreak contender. It’s 11/4 (3.75) for a Tiebreak in the Match. And a standout 12/1 in the Set Score markets for the two Gauff 7-6 score-lines.

In comparison to those odds…

This men’s match on grass in Stuttgart today is much shorter in the Tiebreak-related markets…

Feliciano Lopez v Alexei Popyrin

This is a 39-year-old taking on a 21-year-old. But the current world rankings have these two neck and neck. With the veteran Lopez at no.62, and the young Australian, Popyrin, at no.63.

  • Feliciano Lopez – last 3 matches have featured a Tiebreak (7-6) set. On grass, 7 of his last 10 assignments have ticked that box. Lopez has a strong career record on turf, including two Queen’s Club titles, and a pair of Eastbourne trophies
  • Alexei Popyrin – 8 of his last 10 matches have seen at least one Tiebreak played. On grass, where the 21-year-old’s pro-career form on this surface all comes from summer 2019, 5 out of 9 matches have produced a 7-6 set

Their one previous meeting on the ATP Tour came on hard courts in Miami earlier this season, with the score 6-4, 7-6 to Popyrin. The betting here has a Tiebreak in the Match as an odds-on chance, at just 8/13 (1.62). With the 7-6 Set Scores around 5/1.

I’m going for the bigger prices in the Gauff v Krejcikova quarter final.

  • There’s another big server that I’ve got my eye on in Stuttgart this week. I’ll report back with more on him soon

Ones to Watch

Coca Gauff v Barbora Krejcikova

  • Tiebreak in the Match – Yes is 11/4 with Bet365 (Over 0.5 Tiebreaks), Skybet, Betway
  • 1st Set Score: Gauff 7-6 is 12/1 with William Hill, 11/1 Bet365, Skybet
  • 2nd Set Score: Gauff 7-6 is 12/1 with William Hill, Boylesports

Play starts at 10am, live on ITV4 and Eurosport.

I’ll be back with your Day 12 email on Thursday morning.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch