Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021
French Open: Day 13 – semi-final theatre at 40/1…
Friday 11th June 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day 13 of your French Open 2021 daily service.
A tale of two tournaments…
We talked about a ‘wild ride’ in the women’s semi finals, and the second match of the day certainly delivered all the thrills & spills you could ask for…
Barbora Krejcikova saved a match point, and Maria Sakkari saved four (with one later shown by Hawk-Eye to have gone out). Before Krejcikova eventually came through this epic, lung-busting match, 7-5, 4-6, 9-7.
The 25-year-old Czech goes on to face 29-year-old Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in Saturday’s final.
Once again, for the sixth year running, there will be a new name on the Suzanne-Lenglen trophy. And one of these two women will land a maiden Grand Slam title.
What’s more, for the third time in six years, the champion will pay out at triple-figure odds:
Amazing stuff. Prices like that make me excited for what’s to come. The women’s Grand Slams are a source of huge-odds finalists these days. That’s a fact. Roll on Wimbledon this summer. Then bring on the US Open!
Compared to the seed-slaying mayhem in the women’s draw, the men’s French Open field has panned out pretty much how the seedings & rankings mapped it out before a ball was hit…
Men’s Semi Finals…
In the top half of the draw, the semi final is the world no.1 v the world no.3, Novak Djokovic v Rafael Nadal. Incredibly, this afternoon’s match will be their 58th career encounter. The head-to-head is 29-28 to Novak. But Rafa has won the last five on clay, including a straight-sets triumph in last year’s Roland Garros final.
Nadal is 4/11 (1.36) to beat Djokovic again today. The world no.1 is a 2/1+ (3.0+) underdog – and you don’t say that very often.
In the bottom half, the two most-fancied Next Gen names in this event have both made it through to the semi final. Ensuring an ‘old v new’ final this Sunday. The odds are similar in this one. World no.5 Stefanos Tsitsipas is the 2/5 (1.4) match favourite, with world no.6 Alexander Zverev at 2/1. The head-to-head is 5-2 to Tsitsipas, and 1-0 on clay.
In the day-one Outright Winner market, those four were the tournament favourites – which as we’ve discussed, is in stark contrast to the women’s event.
Serving prices…
As with Coco Gauff, the number of double faults being racked up is a good way to measure Zverev’s form. He’s landed the Most Double Faults in five out of seven previous meetings with Tsitsipas (with the other two Ties). Here at the French Open 2021, the German leads the Greek on total double faults, 27-12…
The problem today is the odds. The bookies are all over Zverev’s double-fault habit: he’s just 1/6 (1.16) with Bet365 for the Most Double Faults.
Nadal has been unusually high on his double faults this fortnight, with 20 in total. Djokovic has hit 11. The head-to-head reverses that though, with the Serbian landing the Most Double Faults in four of their last five clashes on clay.
Paddy Power’s market sums up the close-call aspect for this one: Rafa is 4/5 (1.8) for the Most Double Faults, and Novak is 9/10 (1.9).
Set Betting scenarios – at 15/1 and 40/1…
Going back to the Match Winner markets, a double on the two favourites today pays 10/11 (1.91). Not for the first time, I believe the Set Betting market provides the better value. With Nadal and Tsitsipas the men to get the job done eventually – but it won’t be easy…
Nadal dropped a set in the last round, and such is his dominance at this tournament over the years, that’s newsworthy in itself. Judging by how pumped-up Djokovic looked after his quarter final win, the world no.1 clearly has his eyes on the prize here, too. And with such a massive moment here for Zverev and Tsitsipas, I could see that one taking some serious effort to get decided in less than four sets…
There are plenty of ways to play the Set Betting scenarios, should you wish. I’m going after the big prices for two matching score-lines to play out today: Tsitsipas & Nadal to both win 3-1 pays 15/1 or 14/1 as a double. And those two men to both win 3-2 delivers 40/1. Ambitious? Yes. But the rewards are there, and I’m expecting two highly-competitive matches today.
Ones to Watch
French Open – Men’s Semi Finals
Play starts from 2pm, live on ITV4 and Eurosport.
I’ll be back on Saturday morning with a preview for the Women’s Final.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson