Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

French Open – Men’s Final: 20/1 for a close encounter…

Sunday 13th June 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • French Open – Day 15…
  • Men’s Final…
  • Djokovic v Tsitsipas…

Good morning and welcome to Day 15 of your French Open 2021 daily service.

The biggest challenge…

It’s the men’s final today. Stefanos Tsitsipas is bidding to become the first ‘Next Gen’ player to make the big breakthrough, and beat one of the Big Three in a Grand Slam final

Dominic Thiem beat Alexander Zverev, 3-2, in last year’s US Open final. But when it comes to the young guns taking on the living legends – Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer – it’s not yet been done in a final on the very biggest stage.

Next Gen v Big Three in Grand Slam finals – the story so far:

Australian Open 2021 – N.Djokovic beat D.Medvedev, 3-0

Australian Open 2020 – N.Djokovic beat D.Thiem, 3-2

US Open 2019 – R.Nadal beat D.Medvedev, 3-2

French Open 2019 – R.Nadal beat D.Thiem, 3-1

French Open 2018 – R.Nadal beat D.Thiem, 3-0

They’re getting closer…

Two of the last three such finals have seen the young challenger take the Grand Slam legend to a final set, before succumbing, 3-2. Thiem (v Djokovic) in Melbourne last year, and Medvedev (v Nadal) the year before in New York.

Djokovic and Tsitsipas met in last year’s French Open semi final – and that one was also a five-setter. With the world no.1 beating the Greek youngster, 6-3, 6-2, 5-7, 4-6, 6-1.

  • Djokovic in Major finals: 2 of his last 4 Grand Slam finals have gone to 5 Sets, and Novak has come out on top each time. Coming from 1-2 down to beat Thiem, 3-2 at the Australian Open last year. And saving match points to beat Federer, 3-2 at in the Wimbledon final in 2019

Men’s Final – Djokovic v Tsitsipas…

Match head-to-head: Djokovic 5-2

Match Winner odds: Djokovic 1/3 (1.33), Tsitsipas 13/5 (3.6)

The world no.1 is the clear odds-on favourite to win today. Djokovic has all the experience, and his game reached stratospheric levels in the semi final classic against Nadal.

Tsitsipas is a newcomer in a Grand Slam final, but make no mistake, this 22-year-old does not lack confidence; he believes this is the stage he should be performing on.

This could be a very close match – take age & previous Grand Slam final experience out of it, and this is no.1 v no.5 in the world. Their only previous meeting at a Major came at this venue and on this court, and went to five sets. Since then, they’ve met once more, again on clay, at the Rome Masters in May – and Djokovic came from a set down to beat Tsitsipas, 2-1.

With Novak chasing down the Grand Slam titles hauls of Federer & Nadal, I feel there’s an internal drive to Djokovic that can – somehow – get him over the line here. I respect Tsitsipas’ chances greatly today, but the Next Generation might just have to wait a little bit longer yet.

In the Set Betting market, Djokovic to win 3-2 is 5/1 in general, with Tsitsipas 8/1 at best to take in the fifth.

In the Total Sets betting, 5 Set is 11/4 (3.75).

Novak’s semi-final epic with Rafa last over four hours, but was actually ‘only’ four sets. Rather than pin everything on this going to five sets today, I’m covering a couple of early Set Scores, with a tight scoreboard in mind…

  • 3 of the last 6 sets played between Djokovic & Tsitsipas have ended 7-5
  • In the last three rounds this week, Djokovic has been involved in 5 sets that were settled 7-6 or 7-5
  • In the last four rounds, Tsitsipas has played out 5 sets ending 7-6 or 7-5

You might want to cover a few of those 7-6 (tiebreak) and 7-5 options today. On the side of the underdog and the very biggest prices available, I’m covering 7-5 Tsitsipas in the first two sets, at 20/1 apiece.

Whoever gets in front early on could prove absolutely crucial – and it could be close. A 7-5 score means someone cracks or ups their game, right at the end of the set, with the pressure on…

Ones to Watch

Men’s Final – Djokovic v Tsitsipas

  • 1st Set Score: Tsitsipas 7-5 is 20/1 with Bet365, Skybet, Unibet, Boylesports
  • 2nd Set Score: Tsitsipas 7-5 is 20/1 with Boylesports, 18/1 William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook

The final is at 2pm, live on ITV and Eurosport.

The grass-court season steps up a gear next week, with four tournaments. Followed by four more the week after – before we head to Wimbledon at the end of the month. Check out the updated Calendar here. I’ll be in touch in the week with more on those events – and any early prices to go in the book for SW19.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch