Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

Wimbledon – Day 1: Sheer talent at 40/1…

Monday 28th June 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon – Day 1…
  • Play starts 11am…
  • Outright Winner picks…

Good morning and welcome to your daily Wimbledon 2021 service. It’s been two years since players last set foot on the hallowed turf of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. Two long years, a global pandemic, and with it a whole world of changes.

But some things are still the same…

We’ll still be talking about the weather (the first couple of days are looking more wet than sunny). And active legends of the game are still resident at the top of the rankings and betting…

World no.1 Novak Djokovic is odds-on for the men’s title, at 4/5 (1.8). The man he saved match points to beat in the 2019 final, the now 39-year-old Roger Federer is a top price 12/1.

And in the women’s, another 39-year-old Grand Slam megastar, Serena Williams, is the 6/1 favourite. Serena has been denied in the last two Wimbledon finals, 2019 & 2018.

My plan of attack…

As ever, if you choose to follow me with my Ones to Watch selections. We’ll be looking to hunt out the betting value. The exciting young players, the lively outsiders: the big-odds, Each Way chances.

With the women’s game being particularly open at the moment. And star players such as Rafael Nadal, Naomi Osaka, and Simona Halep all missing from this year’s SW19 draws. We have all the incentive we need to set out our stall in search of upsets over the next two weeks…

Earlier this month at the last Major, the French Open in Paris, three of the four finalists across the men’s & women’s competitions were making their debuts in Grand Slam finals. Including two triple-figure outsiders in the women’s event, with 175/1 Barbora Krejcikova taking the Roland Garros trophy, and 150/1 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova the runner-up.

Prior to Paris this year, the last four women’s Gram Slams produced big-odds finalists at 33/1 (runner-up), 100/1 (winner), 50/1 (runner-up), 22/1 (runner-up), 50/1 (winner), and 40/1 (runner-up).

I’ll say it again. I will be going after the big prices, backing youngsters and outsiders to spring the latest Grand Slam surprise.

And in that quest, the women’s game is an especially exciting area to bet at the big odds:

  • The last 17 women’s Grand Slams have produced 12 different winners
  • 10 of those last 17 – and 4 of the last 6 – were first-time Grand Slam winners
  • The last 3 women’s Majors have produced three 100/1+ finalists

Day 1 – Outright Winner picks…

The 1st round starts today, with the opening matches due on court from 11am, weather permitting. There are 32 men’s matches on the Monday schedule, 32 in the women’s – and the same again on Tuesday.

Over the opening couple of days, and indeed throughout the tournament when opportunities to strike present themselves, I’ll be putting up my Each Way picks for outsider contenders in the Outright Winner markets. We’ll also be getting involved in plenty of the daily match markets, too – whenever there’s a player, proposition & price worthy of our attention.

The players in the top half of the men’s draw start today. In the women’s, the bottom side of the drawsheet are in action on Day 1. With that in mind, see below for my initial selections in the Outright Winner betting.

  • We’re already on Karolina Muchova for the Wimbledon Women’s title – backed at 50/1 Each Way back in February. If you’re not on her yet, odds of 33/1 across the board are still very much worth taking for the talented Czech player
  • Looking for extra clues and young players to follow? Check out my pre-season Ones to Watch in 2021 list here

The model professional at 100/1…

In terms of a 100/1+ outsider in the top section of the men’s draw, Roberto Bautista-Agut feels like a safe pair of hands – although he often slips through tournament draws without getting much of the limelight. The 33-year-old has proven time and time again that he can punch above his weight…

Bautista-Agut is ranked no.10 in the world. Yet every other Top 10 player is trading at half his odds – with most of them much shorter.

A casual or lazy observer might pigeon-hole the Spaniard as a clay-court player. But only one of Roberto’s nine career ATP titles have come on clay – with seven on hard courts, and one on grass. And here at Wimbledon, his form line has been notable, if not much noted upon in the mainstream:

2015 – Last 16 – lost to Federer
2016 – 3rd Round
2017 – Last 16
[2018 – didn’t play]
2019 – Semi Final – lost to Djokovic

Bautista-Agut is seeded 8th here. He’s in the 2nd Quarter of the draw, meaning the biggest name of them all, Djokovic, can’t be faced until the semi finals. Interestingly, the Spaniard has a decent record against the Serbian star: Bautista-Agut has won two of their last four meetings.

In more pressing matters, Roberto has a 5-1 career head-to-head against his 1st round opponent today, Australia’s John Millman. The bookies make the world no.10 an odds-on favourite to win that match, at 1/5 (1.2).

One thing I really like about backing Bautista-Agut at outsider odds is that this guy is a supreme professional; his attitude and commitment to the cause is right up there with the best. He won’t be a pushover for anybody. Odds of 100/1+ outright appeal for Each Way underdog potential. And I’m also putting him in the book at 10/1 to repeat his feat from 2019 and win his Quarter of the draw.

Well worth the Riske at 200/1…

There are two players in the women’s market at single-figure prices – Serena Williams at 6/1, and world no.1 Ashleigh Barty at 7/1. They are both in the top half of the draw. Which makes the bottom section of the field even more promising for big-odds hunters like us…

Alison Riske has been a Ones to Watch runner for us on grass before. What with the pandemic, and injuries, the American hasn’t got much tennis in the formbook since her career-best quarter-final here at Wimbledon in 2019.

But Alison’s overall grass-court record is very good indeed: a 79-34 career match win-loss record, which makes for an eye-catching 70% win-rate on the turf.

At the French Open earlier this month, we saw 29-year-old Pavlyuchenkova make the big breakthrough and reach a first Grand Slam final. Age 30, Riske could be the next lady to make a late-career surge. And if she’s ever going to do it, Wimbledon is the stage. The American’s last four titles at all levels (WTA and lower-tied ITF) have all come on grass.

There are a few players in this 3rd Quarter of the draw that can blow hot-and-cold. Women’s 8th seed Karolina Pliskova has been more cold than hot for some time now, failing to get any further than the 3rd round in each of her last five Grand Slams. Odds of 50/1 to win a maiden Grand Slam are bigger than in previous years, but these days I’m afraid I have the 29-year-old Czech filed under hard-to-trust.

Petra Kvitova’s two Majors have both come here at SW19. Compared to Pliskova, the 31-year-old world no.10 is a Czech player that’s much easier to trust. Petra gets involved in a lot of narrow three-set tussles though, and has a tough 1st round against the ever-unpredictable Sloane Stephens. Kvitova is 15/1 – 10/1 to win Wimbledon this year. I’d want to see what kind of form she’s in before contemplating those odds. They’ve never met on grass, but Riske has a 2-1 head-to-head record v Kvitova on hard courts.

Injury is always a possibility, but my outsider radar is bleeping for Riske in this section of the field, with a massive 200/1 and 150/1 available. And odds of 25/1 and 22/1 to win the 3rd Quarter.

Sheer talent at 40/1…

In the 4th Quarter, there’s a 40/1 shot that catches the eye, with form and momentum on her side…

Earlier this year, I highlighted Ons Jabeur as the one of the best players on the women’s tour yet to have won a WTA title. Well, that monkey is off her back now. Age 26, Ons lifted a maiden trophy on grass at Birmingham this month.

The Tunisian dropped just one set at that WTA 250-grade event. The Tunisian was 13/2 (7.5) to win that tournament. With that massive confidence boost, I reckon Jabeur can now settle down and make a serious run at a Grand Slam. Odds of 40/1 appeal to me here - I was expecting to see her a little shorter, given the wide-open nature of the sport right now.

Jabeur is up to a career-high ranking of no.24 in the world, and is seeded 21st here at Wimbledon 2021. She reminds me a bit of Marion Bartoli – long-time readers will remember the Frenchwoman winning Wimbledon at rank outsider odds back in 2013. Jabeur possesses a similar blend of power and grace, craft and class.

If that recent maiden title win helps takes the edge off her nerves, then Ons can mount a serious challenge this fortnight. She certainly has the serve and the skills to do so. The 40/1 is going in the book for me, along with 8/1+ to win the 4th Quarter.

I’m also backing all three of those Outright picks to win their 1st round matches today. The Match Winner treble pays Evens+ (2.0+):

Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat John Millman
Alsion Riske to beat Tereza Martincova
Ons Jabeur to beat Rebecca Peterson

Play starts from 11am.

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Roberto Bautista-Agut @ 150/1 Boylesports, 125/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 100/1 Bet365, William Hill, and in general

Men’s 2nd Quarter Winner:

  • Roberto Bautista-Agut @ 10/1 Boylesports, Bet365, Skybet, Betfred, 10Bet, Ladbrokes, Coral

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Alison Riske @ 200/1 Bet365, 888 Sport, 150/1 Skybet, William Hill, BetVictor, 125/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 100/1 general
  • Ons Jabeur @ 40/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, 888 Sport

Women’s 3rd Quarter Winner:

  • Alison Riske @ 25/1 Unibet, MansionBet, 10Bet, 22/1 Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Boylesports, BetVictor, Betway

Women’s 4th Quarter Winner:

  • Ons Jabeur @ 17/2 (9.5) Bet365, 8/1 (9.0) Skybet, William Hill, Boylesports, MansionBet, 10Bet, BetVictor, Betway, Betfred

Match Winner:

  • Treble: Bautista-Agut, Riske & Jabeur to win today (matches listed above) @ 11/10 (2.1) Bet365, Boylesports, Evens+ (2.0+) William Hill, BetVictor

Lookout for your Wimbledon Day 2 email on Tuesday at 8.30am.

You can email me during the tournament at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch