Tennis Betting Advice - June 2021

Wimbledon – Day 3: The Polish Connection at 100/1…

Thursday 30th June 2021

In Ones to Watch today:

  • Wimbledon – Day 3…
  • Play starts 11am…
  • Outright Winner and Match picks…

Good morning and welcome to Day 3 of your Wimbledon 2021 service. We’ve had drama already. The latest instalment of the Serena Williams Grand Slam #24 saga ended after just six games. The 39-year-old American slipped on the baseline of Centre Court – not the only player to do so yesterday. Injury sees Serena exit SW19 before Round One has even been completed.

For the second day running the, our Outright Winner picks have benefitted from a softening of the draw – on paper, if nothing else. Our 50/1 Wimbledon 2021 early-bird pick Karolina Muchova (now 33/1) is in this 2nd Quarter of the women’s draw – the section that Serena was in. As I’d done with my other Outright picks this week, I’m also flagging up Muchova to win her Quarter, at 7/1+.

In the top part of that side of the draw (1st Quarter), our 100/1+ teenager Marta Kostyuk made a strong start, beating the retirement-bound Kiki Bertens in straight sets. The bookies have now adjusted the Ukrainian youngster’s Outright price to 80/1 & 66/1. And 16/1 to win the Quarter, from top prices of 25/1 & 22/1 when we backed her yesterday.

At the large and ambitious tournament prices that we go for, we’re always going to lose players along the way. And sometimes they fall at the very first hurdle. It’s part and parcel of outsider-betting. That was the case with 200/1 Alison Riske on Tuesday. In that 3rd Quarter of the draw, I have another triple-figure threat lined up today…

There are so many possibilities in these open-looking draws, and so much potential to be tapped from any number of young players looking to make their mark at a Grand Slam. I want to make sure we have a good spread of these mouth-watering 100/1+ shots in the bag…

Collins a dark horse at 100/1…

Danielle Collins is a player we’ve backed before at massive prices. She hasn’t won one yet – but the 27-year-old American has the air of a contender on the big stage. Primed and tuned from her formative years on the college circuit, Collins is one of the fiercest competitors on the tour. She plays to win. And that drive can see her make great strides at a Grand Slam. She’s made promising attempts before, reaching the semi finals at the Australian Open in 2019, and the quarter finals at the French Open last year.

Another fierce American stands as a potential upcoming opponent here – our 2020 Grand Slam friend, Sofia Kenin. While ‘Sonya’ has shown signs of a return to form since having her appendix out and splitting with her father as coach (4th round at French Open at the start of June). Odds of 40/1 for Kenin here pale in comparison to 150/1, 125/1 and 100/1 for Collins – who has a potentially significant 3-1 career head-to-head v her 23-year-old compatriot.

Add in the fact that Collins is now playing ‘pain-free’ after having surgery for endometriosis earlier this year – information that led us to back Danielle at 100/1+ during the French Open – and the world no.48 looks ready to fulfil her role as dark horse at a Major. Whether that comes this fortnight at Wimbledon, we can’t know. But the odds are there to be taken.

  • As well as backing her as a 100/1+ Outright outsider, I’m ging to play Collins match-by-match, when the prices suit. As is the case today, with Evens (2.0) on offer to beat world no.66 Viktorija Golubic, who had a long and tough 3-6, 6-1, 11-9 battle in the 1st round

The Polish Connection at 100/1…

In the men’s, I was watching and waiting for one result in particular yesterday. Over 18 months ago, Hubert Hurkacz was on our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2020 list. Of course, 2020 didn’t pan out as a normal year for anyone. But fast-forward to spring 2021, and Hurkacz made history by becoming the first Polish man to win an ATP Masters 1000 title, taking the Miami Open crown at 100/1

He blasted through the Miami field that fortnight with a combination of ruthless serving and clean, laser-accurate ground-strokes. Now a Top 20 player, Hubert went off the boil a bit after that big breakthrough, which is understandable. In the run-up to Wimbledon, he was on a six-match losing streak (four on clay, two on grass).

A straight-sets, 3-0 victory over the super-talented youngster Lorenzo Musetti yesterday halted that form dip in fine style. Hurkacz won 86% of 1st Serve Points in the match, and saved all four break points that he faced. With 6/1 tournament second-favourite Daniil Medvedev in this segment of the draw, that 1st-round result hasn’t caused Hubert’s 100/1+ price to flicker at all. Which is good news for us…

The last time Wimbledon took place, in 2019, Hurkacz took a set off Novak Djokovic in the 3rd round. The world no.1 went on to win the tournament. Now 24 years old and ranked no.18, Hurkacz has improved significantly since then.

If you’ve been a Ones to Watch follower for some time, then you will recall our 90/1 Wimbledon friend from back in 2013, Jerzy Janowicz. The big-serving Pole reached the semi finals, only beaten by a certain Andy Murray, with the Scot lifting the title for the first time that year…

Prior to that Grand Slam breakthrough in summer 2013, Janowicz had announced himself on the tour with a surprise, huge-odds run to the final of the ATP Masters in Paris, autumn 2012. I can’t help but draw comparisons between these two big-serving Polish men. Janowicz had a standout streak to a Masters final – followed by a big run to a first Grand Slam semi final, on the grass at Wimbledon. I’m backing Hurkacz to do the same.

While Jerzy was known as a bit of a loud and unpredictable character on the court, Hubert is regarded as one of the friendliest chaps on the tour, and has a calm and assured head on his shoulders. Injury cruelly cut Janowicz’s career short. A fit and ready Hurkacz can make his mark as an outsider this summer.

  • Along with standout odds of 200/1, 150/1 and 100/1 Each Way, Hurkacz is 16/1 & 14/1 to win the 4th Quarter of the draw

Day 3 – Match picks…

As well as Collins to beat Golubic at Evens, there are a few other matches on the busy Day 3 schedule where we can look to scoop up some value…

Lloyd Harris to beat Andrey Rublev @ 5/1

This one has underdog potential for me, with the big-serving South African, Lloyd Harris looking a bit underrated at 5/1. Rublev is one of the bigger names in the men’s game these days, but is also still learning his trade at the top level. Harris can keep the scoreboard very close if he serves well, as he did in the 1st round. And he’ll back himself to get a result here.

Set Betting – Olga Govortsova to win 2-1 v Coco Vandeweghe @ 13/2

The 2-1 Set Betting score has been a good women’s pick for us in recent times. Odds of 13/2 (7.5) here look big and catch my eye. We spoke about Vandeweghe in the build-up to the grass-court season. A former two-time Wimbledon quarter-finalist before injuries struck, there’s a danger that Coco might want this too much today. Govortsova herself has a positive career grass record (won 33 lost 25), and came through the Wimbledon Qualifying rounds with three wins last week. A long one could be in store today, and that make the 2-1 underdog option appeal.

Rybakina & Stephens to both win 2-0 – Double @ 13/10

Elena Rybakina and Sloane Stephens both had good 2-0 wins in round one, and both are capable of moving into steamroller form when on song. The straight-sets route looks the smart play in their respective matches today, with the 2-0 double coming out a healthy odds-against in the Set Betting markets. Those matches being:

Rybakina v Claire Liu
Stephens v Kristie Ahn

Ones to Watch – Wimbledon

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Hubert Hurkacz @ 200/1 Unibet, 150/1 Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, 100/1 Bet365 and in general

Men’s 4th Quarter Winner:

  • Hubert Hurkacz @ 16/1 William Hill, 14/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet, BetVictor, Betway

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Danielle Collins @ 150/1 Boylesports, 125/1 Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, 100/1 Bet365 and in general

Women’s 2nd Quarter Winner:

  • Karolina Muchova @ 17/2 (9.5) Skybet, 15/2 (8.5) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 7/1 (8.0) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, BetVictor, Betway

Match picks:

  • Danielle Collins to beat Viktorija Golubic @ Evens (2.0) Boylesports, Skybet, Betway
  • Lloyd Harris to beat Andrey Rublev @ 5/1 Bet365, Betway, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
  • Set Betting – Olga Govortsova to win 2-1 v Coco Vandeweghe @ 13/2 Bet365, Unibet, 6/1 in general
  • Set Betting – DOUBLE: Rybakina & Stephens to both win 2-0 (matches listed above) @ 13/10 (2.30) Bet365, BetVictor, Betway, Unibet

Play starts from 11am.

Lookout for your Wimbledon Day 4 email on Thursday at 8.30am.

You can email me during the tournament at:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch