Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022
French Open Day 11: Two trebles…
Wednesday 1st June 2022
Welcome to Day 11 of your French Open 2022 daily service…
Another classic…
There have been some great matches at Roland Garros this year. But last night’s bruising encounter between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic will take some beating.
A contest that showed just why both men have been at the top of the sport for so long. Incredible, skilful, athletic tennis – producing mesmerising, edge of the seat rallies. Not just in bursts, but for hour after hour. It was wonderful to see.
I really thought we were ‘on’ for the Djokovic 3-2 win at 6/1. Novak served for the 4th set, and had two sets points to make it 2-2. But Rafa broke at a crucial juncture, and the 13-time French Open champion pulled off a famous 3-1 victory, 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6.
The match lasted over four hours, and well past 1am local time. I knew I’d be tired this morning. But I couldn’t miss this one. As John McEnroe said in the commentary box, we don’t know how many more times we’ll get to see Nadal v Djokovic in a big Grand Slam battle like this. Episode 59 of their rivalry was another classic.
Earlier in the day on Tuesday, Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz also put on a show in front of an enthralled Philippe-Chatrier crowd – showing that men’s tennis will be in good hands in the future, too.
Zverev won that one, also by three sets to one, and also saving a set point that would’ve made it two-all and taken the match to a fifth set.
In yesterday’s Match Winner markets, Nadal and Zverev were both underdogs, at 2/1 and 3/1 respectively. Add in Martina Trevisan’s 7/4 victory over Leylah Fernandez in the women’s, and three of Tuesday’s four quarter finals saw the outsider in the betting prevail. With the three-timer worth over 30/1.
Martina keeps the 100/1 dream alive…
In terms of our own big-odds quest, it only takes one of our Ones to Watch selections to give us an exciting tournament…
Martina Trevisan is delivering on that front. We got the Italian in the book after the 2nd round, at top prices of 150/1, 125/1 and 100/1. After taking out Fernandez yesterday, the Italian is through to a first Grand Slam semi final – and now down to 14/1 in general to go all the way.
Age 28, Martina could be called something of a late bloomer on the big stage. Now that she’s in a Grand Slam semi final, we might hear more about her story. After a promising Junior career, Trevisan was out of the sport for around four years from 2010. Having battled an eating disorder, her comeback on the tour is nothing short of inspirational. You can read more here, in an article posted on a mental health blog in 2021, the year after Martina reached the French Open quarter finals for the first time.
Back to the 2022 action, and having won a maiden WTA title at Rabat in the build-up to Paris, Trevisan is on a 10-match winning streak on clay. Win number 11 would take her into a Major final – and book us in for a large Each Way payout, or more. Easier said than done, of course. But certainly not out of the question. Teenager Coco Gauff will start as the favourite. Trevisan won their only previous encounter… which came on clay in 2020, right here at the French Open.
Pegula up for the challenge…
In the opposite side of the women’s draw, we have one more Ones to Watch outsider running for us. Jessica Pegula is through to a first Roland Garros quarter final, and will be guaranteed a new career-high, Top 10 ranking when the new list is published on Monday. From odds of 66/1 and 50/1 before a ball was hit, the American is now around 20/1. That price would be completely obliterated should she win today…
Pegula takes on the form horse, the former champion, the current world no.1, the 21-year-old superstar riding a phenomenal 32-match winning streak: Iga Swiatek.
The bookies make Jess 5/1 and 11/2 for the upset today. That that Match Winner price isn’t more like 10/1+ is down to two factors. One being Pegula’s own form here in Paris, and the other being the small chinks of armour shown in Swiatek’s last two matches. Most notably, 19-year-old Qinwen Zheng pushed the top seed to three sets in the last round. And if it wasn’t for a leg injury, and menstrual pain (which she spoke openly about in an interview after the match), then the teenager might just have pulled off a 12/1 shock on the day.
Pegula fans can also point to the head-to-head v Swiatek, which is tied at 1-1. This will be their first meeting on clay.
Given Swiatek’s world-class status in the sporting world right now, I think the French Open organisers might come in for a bit of criticism for not putting this match in the headline Night Session. Instead, that primetime honour goes to Casper Ruud and teenager Holger Rune. That means that all four of the women’s quarter finals have been first on court, which unfortunately tends to mean smaller crowds in the stadium.
Two trebles for today…
Quarter finals today – play starts 11am UK time:
Veronika Kudermetova v Daria Kasatkina
Iga Swiatek v Jessica Pegula
Followed by:
Andrey Rublev v Marin Cilic
Casper Ruud v Holger Rune
I’m going for a pair of trebles in today’s matches. See below for the picks and prices. With three underdog wins catching the eye, and also my take on how many sets will be played.
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Ones to Watch picks:
French Open 2022
Here are my selections for today:
Match Winners:
Kudermetova
Cilic
Rune
Total Sets:
Kudermetova v Kasatkina – 3 Sets
Rublev v Cilic – 4 Sets
Ruud v Rune – 4 Sets
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I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 12 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson