Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022
French Open Day 13: It could be a day for the 30-somethings…
Friday 3rd June 2022
Welcome to Day 13 of your French Open 2022 daily service
It wasn’t to be for our 100/1 shot Martina Trevisan. The Italian gave us a great underdog run. But sometimes you just have to say, too good. And that was the case with Coco Gauff in yesterday’s women’s semi final. The 18-year-old advances to a first Grand Slam final, and is still yet to drop a set in the tournament.
On day one of the French Open last week, Gauff was 28/1 for the trophy. Coco will take on the long-standing favourite, Iga Swiatek, in Saturday’s championship match.
This afternoon it’s the men’s semi finals. Play starts from 1.45pm, and this time, Rafa gets his preferred daytime slot. Not that playing late at night did much to his amazing performance last time out…
Here’s the Friday line-up, and the Match Winner odds:
Rafael Nadal v Alexander Zverev
3/10 (1.3) 11/4 (3.75)
Followed by:
Casper Ruud v Marin Cilic
4/9 (1.44) 2/1 (3.0)
There’s some great context to these semi finals, too. After a pair of ultimately one-sided women’s last four matches yesterday, Friday’s encounters promise to be much more competitive…
Rafael Nadal v Alexander Zverev
This is the world no.5 v the world no.3, but don’t be fooled by the rankings. Nadal is of course the confirmed King of Clay, and going after what would be an incredible 14th French Open title. It’s his 36th birthday today.
The career head-to-head is 6-3 to Rafa, although Zverev has won three of their last four meetings. On clay, Nadal leads the German, 3-1. They’ve only met once before at a Grand Slam, and that one went the distance to five sets, 3-2 to Nadal at the Australian Open 2017.
Zverev brings extra motivation today, as if playing for a place in a first Roland Garros final wasn’t enough. The 25-year-old will move to a new career-high of no.2 in the world if he wins today – and can go to no.1 if he wins the whole tournament.
It’s hard to back against Rafa in a best-of-five-set match here in Paris, on clay, on Court Philippe-Chatrier. But as we’ve seen throughout week two so far, opponents can take sets off Nadal right now (something that was barely the case in his heyday, such was Nadal’s dominance at this venue). In the quarters, Novak Djokovic had set points to take the match to a final set. And in the Last 16, Felix Auger-Aliassime took Rafa to the full five sets.
On the other side of the net, let’s not forget that Zverev knocked out one of the tournament favourites in the last round, teenage sensation Carlos Alcaraz. Sascha managed to close that victory out in four sets, but as with Nadal’s 3-1 win over Djokovic, Zverev’s opponent had set point to take it to five.
Total Sets = 5 can be backed at 3/1 today (4.0). I can see Nadal digging deep to prove that bit too good for one of the young guns at a Major, once again. In the Set Betting market, Nadal 3-2 is my pick, at a top price of 6/1 (7.0).
Casper Ruud v Marin Cilic
Another intriguing storyline here. With Ones to Watch regular Ruud looking to reach a debut Grand Slam final – and this match being his first semi final at this level. The 23-year-old Norwegian is already a top 10 player, ranked no.8 coming into this event.
On the other side of the net, 33-year-old Cilic is looking to complete what would be a remarkable late-career surge. The Croatian has made the final at each of the other three Grand Slams. Winning the US Open in 2014 (as a 100/1 outsider), and runner-up at the Australian Open 2018 when we were on him at big odds. In-between, Cilic also got to the Wimbledon final in 2017. I was in the stands at Centre Court that day, and while it was wonderful to see Roger Federer in full flight, the match didn’t get the chance to fully blossom, as Marin had bad blisters on his feet – and ended the match in tears. Currently ranked no.23, but a former no.3, Cilic started last week at odds of well over 100/1.
While Ruud is the justified favourite on any recent form prior to Roland Garros 2022, and leads the head-to-head 2-0 (1-0 on clay). I can’t rule out the upset here, with the Grand Slam semi-final stage something of a leveller, considering Cilic’s experience.
I’ve talked a few times about Cilic’s nerves. So far, I have to say he’s proved me largely wrong on that count. Both players will give each other chances today. Only one of Ruud’s five matches this fortnight have been settled in three sets. While Cilic’s quarter final win over Andrey Rublev went the complete distance, to a tiebreak in the fifth set. Bet365 make that ‘Go the Distance’ outcome (eg. 7-6 to either player in the final set) a 14/1 shot for this match, and 16/1 for Nadal v Zverev. Total Sets = 5 for this one is around 13/5 (3.6).
I’m doing my business in the Set Betting markets today, and my pick is for a Cilic 3-2 win at an appealing 7/1.
While the women’s final will see a 21-year-old playing an 18-year-old, the men’s French Open 2022 trophy match might just end up being contested by a pair of 30-somethings…
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Ones to Watch picks:
French Open 2022
Rafael Nadal v Alexander Zverev
Casper Ruud v Marin Cilic
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I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 14 email.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson