Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022

Saturday 4th June 2022

Welcome to Day 14 of your French Open 2022 daily service

Women’s Final – Iga Swiatek v Coco Gauff

The stage is set for the women’s final this afternoon. It’s an exciting one for the headline writers, with 21-year-old Iga Swiatek taking on 18-year-old Coco Gauff…

On one side of the net, the Polish winning machine Swiatek, 2020 champion here, and currently on a mind-boggling streak of 34 wins and zero defeats since 22nd February.

At the other end of the court, the American teenager Gauff, making her debut in a Grand Slam final – with many in the tennis world expecting this to be the first of many such championship finals for the prodigious youngster.

On day one of the tournament, when there were 128 women in the field, the Outright Winner betting had Swiatek as the odds-on favourite for the trophy at 4/5 (1.8). Gauff was a 28/1 shot. Now we’re down to two, and the Match Winner betting shows the bookies haven’t changed their mind as to who they expect to win:

Iga Swiatek v Coco Gauff
2/13 (1.15)       5/1 (6.0)

The upset at 5/1 will have plenty of backers today, I’m sure. Unlike some of Swiatek’s recent opponents – including Daria Kasatkina in the semi finals, who was dismissed 6-2, 6-1 – Gauff possesses the hitting power to at least try and get the menacing Pole on the back foot.

As long-term readers will know, I love an underdog. But I’d be a bit wary of getting on the bandwagon for the teenage headline story here. Swiatek’s formbook is just so strong, and Iga appears to be able to deal with the mental pressure of a big-match situation like this, too.

These two talented young women have met twice before on the tour:

Swiatek v Gauff – Head-to-Head:

28th March 2022, WTA Miami: Swiatek 6-3, 6-1

15th May 2021, WTA Rome: Swiatek 7-6, 6-3

Last year’s Rome semi final on clay does give some weight to the case for Gauff to make some kind of dent in the world no.1’s scoreboard domination this afternoon. As does the fact that – unlike Swiatek – Coco has yet to drop a set on her way to today’s final.

However, it must be said that throughout her six matches here at the French Open 2022, the teenager has yet to face a single player ranked inside the world’s top 30. Taking on the world no.1 today is a big step up in quality of opposition.

How to get 4/1 for the favourite…

The key piece of form for me today comes in the record-in-finals stats. Swiatek’s 2020 Roland Garros win was, remarkably, the first senior title of her career. Iga won that one in straight sets, 2-0, and ran away with it in set two, 6-1. An impressive pattern of scoreboard domination that has continued throughout her seven subsequent finals…

Since announcing herself on the big stage with that French Open triumph, Swiatek is played eight won eight in finals. And no-one’s been able to get close to her on the day…

Iga Swiatek in Finals since 2020:

15th May 2022, WTA Rome: defeated Ons Jabeur, 6-2, 6-2

24th May 2022, WTA Stuttgart: def. Aryna Sabalenka, 6-2, 6-2

2nd April 2022, WTA Miami: def. Naomi Osaka, 6-4, 6-0

20th March 2022, WTA Indian Wells: def. Maria Sakkari, 6-4, 6-1

26th Feb 2022, WTA Doha: def. Anett Kontaveit, 6-2, 6-0

16th May 2021, WTA Rome: def. Karolina Pliskova, 6-0, 6-0

27th Feb 2021, WTA Adelaide: def. Belinda Bencic, 6-2, 6-2

10th Oct 2020, French Open: def. Sofia Kenin, 6-4, 6-1

  • Average Set Score: 6 – 1.75
  • Average 1st Set Score: 6 – 2.5
  • Average 2nd Set Score: 6 - 1

Across her six wins posted so far in this year’s French Open run, Swiatek’s average set score-line has been 6.08 – 2.23. It follows, then, that Iga’s most common Set Score this fortnight has been 6-2 – with five of the 12 sets that she’s won paying out on that score-line.

In a match where it’s hard to find value when it comes to backing the favourite, the Swiatek 6-2 Set Score is an angle that could pay off at some worthwhile prices today.

Swiatek the win the 1st Set by the 6-2 score is available at 4/1 with several firms (see below).

And as demonstrated by the record-in-finals stats above, Iga has a seriously good track record for accelerating away from opponents in the 2nd Set. The 2nd Set market is harder to come across pre-match, but a trio of firms have that option as I write (listed below). And most bookies will have Set Score markets available, in-play.

  • Also available: Skybet have a market called ‘Match Dominance,’ with ‘Swiatek to win every set 6-0, 6-1 or 6-2’ priced at 5/1

Underdog for the Aces…

Coco is averaging about twice as many Aces per match as Iga this season (4 – 2). The American is known as the bigger server – but Gauff is also prone to wobbles in this department…

This being her first ever appearance in a Grand Slam final, nerves could show up for Coco at some stage. And that could result in the teenager either going for too much on her serve, and missing – or taking a bit of pace off in order to make sure it just goes in. Both scenarios will likely take down the Aces total.

And when we consider that Gauff hit just one ace in the semi final (and zero in the 4th round). Short odds-on prices for the math outsider to win the Most Aces battle today look a bit vulnerable to me.

In comparison, Swiatek can be backed at 9/2 (5.5) for the Most Aces, and that looks a sneaky way to obtain a nice price about the world no.1 today. That bet goes against the form of their previous two meetings – but neither of those were Grand Slam finals…


Ones to Watch picks:

French Open 2022

Iga Swiatek v Coco Gauff

  • 1st Set Score: Swiatek 6-2 @ 4/1 Bet365, Skybet, BetVictor, Boylesports, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, Betfred, 888 Sport. Markets also available with Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, Betway Ladbrokes, Coral
  • 2nd Set Score: Swiatek 6-2 @ 4/1 Boylesports, 888 Sport, 15/4 (4.75) Betway


Play starts at 2pm.

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with your Day 15 email.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch