Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022

French Open Day 15: Tiebreak chances in the Men’s Final…

Sunday 5th June 2022

Welcome to Day 15 of your French Open 2022 daily service

Men’s Final – Rafael Nadal v Casper Ruud

It’s the master against the pupil today. Quite literally, as Casper Ruud honed his craft at the Rafael Nadal Academy in Mallorca.

This will the first competitive meeting between the 23-year-old Ruud and the 36-year-old Nadal. Make no mistake though, these two men know all about each other’s game.

On day one of the tournament, Nadal was 4/1 for the trophy. Ruud was 22/1. Fast-forward to today, and the Spanish legend is now odds-on to break his own record, and win Roland Garros title number 14. Norwegian newcomer Casper goes in very much as the underdog here, for all his clay-court credentials away from the Grand Slam stage.

Match Winner odds:

Rafael Nadal         Casper Ruud
2/11 (1.18)              4/1 (5.0)

As with yesterday’s women’s final, having a dominant match favourite can make it hard to find value in the betting markets. Unless of course you’re sweet on the chances of the upset. I certainly think the 23-year-old is capable of beating Rafa. But at this venue and in this environment, Nadal has proved time and time again that you can never, ever write him off.

I was interested to see the price for Ruud ‘To Win a Set,’ but odds-on quotes for that option don’t really excite me. The challenger is 8/11 (1.73) in that market with the likes of Bet365, Skybet and William Hill.

Tiebreak chances…

One angle that I have been more intrigued by is for the match to produce a Tiebreak set.

Both sets in Nadal’s semi-final went to a tiebreak, before opponent Alexander Zverev unfortunately fell badly on his ankle and had to retire injured (the score was at 7-6, 6-6).

Rafa’s quarter final v Novak Djokovic also featured a tiebreak, with the Spaniard clinching the match in the fourth set, 7-6.

Half of Ruud’s six matches this fortnight have produced a tiebreak set. And in the build-up to Paris in May, six of Casper’s nine matches (all on clay) contained a 7-6 set.

The key here is that the 23-year-old’s serve is somewhat underrated. People don’t talk about Ruud as a big server in the way that they would for other players with his kind of serving stats. For example, in both the quarter final and semi final, Casper got into double figures for Aces. I reckon he can hold his own serve enough to get at least one of today’s sets to 6-6 on the scoreboard, and give himself a shot at a tiebreak.

A Tiebreak in the Match is available at odds-against prices. Some bookies such as Bet365 call this market ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks.’

For bigger odds, a Tiebreak in the 1st Set is around 4/1 (5.0). With Bet365 going 11/2 (6.5) via their Total 1st Set Games market, with Over 12.5 Games the option.

The 7-6 Set Correct Score is worth looking out for in-play, especially if the match shapes up to be a close one…

In general, it’s hard to back against the 13-time champion today. But no-one is unbeatable and nothing is impossible…

Rafa has been known to have some nerves and/ or make slow starts to big matches before. It could be Casper’s best chance, then, to get a grip on his serving as early as he can. That being the case, I’ve got one underdog price that I’m going after today, and that’s Ruud to nab the opening set on a tiebreak, 7-6, with odds of 14/1 and 12/1 catching the eye.

And finally…

Betway have got an interesting market up this morning. In their Price Boosts section for this match, they’re offering 4/1 for ‘Rafael Nadal to Win the Final & Announce His Retirement During Winner’s Speech.’ That is a scenario that had crossed my mind this weekend, well before I saw that special. Put it this way – with Rafa’s recent injury battles, I wouldn’t be surprised if he made that announcement with the trophy in his hands today.


Ones to Watch picks:

French Open 2022

Rafael Nadal v Casper Ruud

  • Tiebreak in the Match: Yes @ 5/4 (2.25) Bet365, 11/10 (2.1) Skybet, William Hill, Betway, Evens (2.0) Boylesports
  • 1st Set Correct Score: Ruud 7-6 @ 14/1 Bet365, 12/1 BetVictor, 11/1 Skybet, Betfred, Sporting Index Fixed Odds, William Hill, Betway, 10/1 Ladbrokes, Coral


Play starts at 2pm.

I’ll be back in the coming week, as we move into the start of the grass court season, with four tournaments taking place…

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch