Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022
Ones to Watch in Berlin and Birmingham…
Monday 13th June 2022
Good morning. The grass court season continues this week and next with a nice symmetry to it. Last week there were four tournaments across the men’s & women’s tours; this week there are four again. And then there are four more next week – before we set up camp at Wimbledon.
This week’s schedule:
ATP 500 Halle, Germany – starts 11am (UK time)
ATP 500 Queen’s, London – starts 12 noon
WTA 500 Berlin, Germany – starts 10am
WTA 250 Birmingham – starts 11am
A genuine surprise…
We were right to go after a 250/1 shot in the Netherlands last week… we just didn’t pick the right one (!). Our rank outsider on the odds, Hugo Gaston, made the quarter finals. But Hugo was taken out in straight sets by a genuinely out-of-nowhere run from home wildcard Tim Van Rijthoven…
The 25-year-old was appearing in just his second ever main-draw ATP event. To reach the final – and then win it, beating world no.2 Daniil Medvedev in the championship match, also in straight sets – is pretty incredible. In Monday’s new world rankings, the Dutchman leaps from no.205 to no.106.
Van Rijthoven was 250/1 and 200/1 on day one last week. And if you roll up the individual Match Winner prices for his five-match streak to the Libema Open title, in which he was the underdog in the betting in every round, the odds multiply to a staggering 600/1+.
A big reminder then, as if outsider bettors like you & I need it, that anything can happen in sport. And that going after the big prices in the tennis Outright Winner markets can be a source of some extremely exciting opportunities.
It’s day one of this week’s tournaments. I’m up bright and early. Let’s get a couple of grass-court picks down, before play starts this morning…
Ones to Watch on the grass this week…
WTA Berlin has a loaded top half of the draw. With recognisable and respected names such as top seed (and our early-bird Wimbledon pick) Ons Jabeur. The Tunisian is 7/1 here. We’re on her at top prices of 40/1 and 33/1 for Wimbledon – a bet that’s now trading at 20/1 at best.
Also in this top half of the Bett1 Open in Berlin, the likes of former Wimbledon champion Garbine Muguruza, teenage French Open runner-up Coco Gauff, and last year’s beaten Wimbledon finalist Karolina Pliskova. Gauff is the favourite at 13/2 (7.5) at best, as I write early this morning, with William Hill. Muguruza and Pliskova are no better than 10/1 apiece, and both are hard to trust at such prices.
The opposite side of the draw looks the place to go for an Each Way pick. The reigning champion Liudmila Samsonova can be backed at 20/1. And despite losing her opening 2022 grass match last week, the 23-year-old is one to look out for here. Samsonova loves fast playing surfaces, making two semi finals on indoor hard courts towards the end of last season. On grass, she went played 11 won 10 last summer.
In terms of the outsider prices at WTA Birmingham this week, two players I’m interested in are both playing today (11am onwards)…
The ‘other’ American Coco, Coco Vandeweghe, has a 70% career match win-rate on grass. Injuries have plagued the 30-year-old since 2017 and 2018, when she was regularly reaching quarter finals at Grand Slams. When fit and serving well, Coco is very dangerous on grass. Here at Birmingham, Vandeweghe reached the semi final last year, and also in 2016.
Already this June, the current world no.122 has reached the semi at the annual ITF grass event at Surbiton, and then won two rounds in qualifying for Birmingham, both in straight sets. Today’s 1st round clash with Donna Vekic could well be very close, but the American leads the head-to-head, and Vekic went out in round one at Nottingham last week. Odds of 33/1, 28/1 and 25/1 are available for Vandeweghe in the tournament markets this morning. I also like Coco at Evens or better to beat Vekic this morning.
In the opposite side of the Birmingham draw, a youngster I’m keen to follow this season and beyond is Slovenia’s Kaja Juvan. The 21-year-old is best known on clay, but I’ve watched her play a few times now, and young Kaja has the pace in her shots and potential in her game to do well on skiddy grass courts, too, in my opinion. Having reached a maiden WTA final (on clay) in Strasbourg last month, Juvan looks like threatening at 250-grade events like this one right now. Odds of 50/1 and 40/1 have a nice Ones to Watch ring about them.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Note: not all bookies are up as I write (7am). Check also for Outright Winner markets with firms including Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Betfred – as well as those listed below.
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
WTA Berlin – Bett1 Open
WTA Birmingham – Rothesay Classic
Match Winner:
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Play starts from 10am at WTA Berlin, and 11am in Birmingham. Bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets during play.
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a look at this week’s men’s tournaments.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson