Tennis Betting Advice - June 2022
Wimbledon: Day 3 – going for the upsets at 150/1…
Wednesday 29th June 2022
Good morning. Welcome to Day 3 of your Wimbledon 2022 Daily Service. Play starts from 11am…
Tim to serve it up…
There are two men’s matches in particular that stand out as potential serve-dominated contests today. Andy Murray holds an intimidating 9-0 head-to-head record v John Isner – but they’ve never met on grass. The 6’10” American has been a longstanding name at the top of the annual Most Aces charts. With 54 in his five-set 1st round win this week, Isner is top of the early week one Most Aces standings here at Wimbledon, too. The bookies are expecting at least one tiebreak (7-6 score) set in the match. At Bet365, ‘Over 0.5 Tiebreaks’ is short odds-on, at 1/6 (1.17).
That Tiebreak price is even shorter for my feature match of the day. With odds of just 1/9 (1.11) for Tim Van Rijthoven and Reilly Opelka to serve up at least one 7-6 set…
Van Rijthoven has been one of the breakthrough players of this grass court season, and he might only just be getting started…
Age 25, the Dutchman made a name for himself with a dream debut run to an ATP title this month. Tim made a mockery of his 250/1 rank outsider price at the ‘s-Hertogenbosch event, going all the way and lifting the trophy in front of a home Netherlands crowd. That may have only been a 250-grade event, but the quality of opponent that Van Rijthoven beat cannot be overlooked: first taking out our friend Taylor Fritz, who is currently ranked no.14 in the world, then no.9 Felix Auger-Aliassime, and then – in the final – wiping the floor with world no.1 Daniil Medvedev in straight sets.
Add in a very convincing 3-0 when playing his first ever match at Wimbledon on Monday. And the world no.104 has some intriguing credentials as a dark horse here at SW19. Not least because of his serving ability. In that 7-6, 6-1, 6-2, 1st round win over Federico Delbonis, Van Rijthoven won a scintillating 91% of his 1st Serve Points. It’s early days at Wimbledon 2022, of course. But with round one completed, the only man with a better 1st Serve Win rate than Tim is our 100/1 pick, Taylor Fritz (92%)…
Dark horses for the men’s title…
We targeted the bottom half of the men’s draw when backing Fritz at big prices, along with Stefanos Tsitsipas at 25/1+. Both our players won their openers yesterday. And with three fancied contenders now already gone from this side of the men’s drawsheet: Auger-Aliassime (lost in 1st round), and Matteo Berrettini & Marin Cilic both having to pull out with coronavirus. This section of the draw, despite containing Rafael Nadal, is now looking pretty open for an outsider to come through and challenge for a semi final place or better.
In this morning’s revised men’s Outright Winner market, the bookies have reacted accordingly. Fritz is now trading at 40/1 at best, with Tsitsipas at 14/1. Having got on those two at 80/1+ and 25/1+ respectively, it could turn out to have been a good move to back Taylor and Stef before a ball was hit. Whether or not the bookies decide to pull a trick and impose a horse-racing ‘Rule 4’ on the market remains to be seen. But seeing as the clear pre-tournament, outright favourite Novak Djokovic hasn’t gone anywhere, and Wimbledon had already started before second-favourite Berrettini withdrew, it would be a harsh move by the bookmaking fraternity. Anyway, that’s not something to worry about right now. There’s a long way to go before anyone makes the final…
Back to TIM VAN RIJTHOVEN. He’s still available at triple-figure prices, and that’s because he’s in Djokovic’s part of the draw. With the top seed and reigning three-time Wimbledon champion odds-on at 4/6 (1.67) to defend his crown. In the realm of the dark horses, I’m very interested in the Dutchman here. Some of the earlier 200/1+ quotes have gone, but as I write this morning, Van Rijthoven can be backed at the favourable 1/2 odds Each Way terms at 100/1 or bigger with every firm listed on Oddschecker (barring the aforementioned Bet365), including a handful at 150/1. At these prices, I’m adding him to the book as genuine outsider with the chance to spring a surprise this fortnight.
If he beats Reilly Opelka today, Tim’s triple-figure outright price will likely evaporate. Working to 100/1 odds for example, and the Match Winner price of 4/5 (1.8) to beat Opelka. A win for Van Rijthoven today would see a 100/1 quote hacked down to more like 50/1.
As we discussed last week when successfully opposing Opelka at Eastbourne with another breakthrough underdog on the grass, Maxime Cressy. The 15th seed has a poor career record on grass courts, with 24-year-old Opelka yet to get past the 3rd round at Wimbledon (1st round last year). And holding a career match win-loss record on the turf of just 7-13 (35%). In comparison, the debutant Van Rijthoven is 6-1 on grass this month, winning five matches in a row to take that maiden ATP title in the Netherlands, then impressing on his first Wimbledon outing on Monday.
I’m with Tim here. If he wins today – and I fancy him to – I’ll also be looking to back him to win in the next round, too. As well as playing right now at the 100/1+ outright prices.
Women’s contenders – all about timing…
In the women’s Outright Winner market, we’ve lost two of our big outsiders, early on. While it’s never enjoyable to see a tournament pick go out in the very 1st round, it’s also worth remembering the bigger picture: with 100/1+ Ones to Watch youngsters like 22-year-old Dayana Yastremska and 19-year-old Clara Tauson, we’re getting them in the book at massive prices, as we look to anticipate their first big breakthrough run at a Grand Slam. There’s no crystal ball to tell us when that will come – but we’re aiming to be on at the best early-bird, ahead-of-the-curve price when and if it does. In the case of Yastremska, we’re already on her at big odds for this year’s US Open. While we’ll wait and see on Tauson’s fitness over the rest of the summer.
For the three outstanding picks that we have running ‘live’ for us at Wimbledon right now, it could be that their time to shine is right now…
Ons Jabeur plays in the 2nd round today. From 40/1 & 33/1 when we got on in April, Jabeur started this week at 9/1 at best. And with a few seeds sent packing already, as well as Serena Williams going out in the 1st round, the Tunisian is now just 5/1 to go all the way.
Angelique Kerber has been there and done it before. Last year’s semi-finalist and the 2018 Wimbledon winner, the German is on our side at a best-price 33/1 this week. That price is still available with Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook as I write this morning.
Anhelina Kalinina is our 200/1+ dark horse in the women’s field. There’s an argument that her time is now, too, with the 25-year-old up to a career-best ranking coming in to this week, and winning her first ever main draw match at Wimbledon. If she beats fellow Ukrainian Lesia Tsurenko today, Kalinina will reach the 3rd round of a Major for the first time. Anhelina has said she’s playing for her country, and spoke this week about how important the prize money is, for her to help not only her family back home, but also her fellow Ukrainians. Kalinina told the BBC that her parents’ home was bombed recently. It all makes hitting yellow fluffy balls around on the grass feel like something we should all be grateful for. I think the phrase is, that story puts things in perspective. Something to remember next time I’m kicking myself after a losing day. Read more here.
Going for the upsets on Day 3…
We’ve seen some carnage in the draws already. Today could be the day we start to see some more of the women’s seeds fall…
I make these three vulnerable to a potential upset today – Alison Riske (28th seed), Jelena Ostapenko (12th seed), Maria Sakkari (5th seed). With some nice prices around for the underdogs:
Maja Chwalinska @ 9/2 (5.5) to beat Alison Riske. The 20-year-old Pole pulled off a 2/1+ shock in the 1st round, beating Katerina Siniakova in straight sets. A friend of compatriot Iga Swiatek from their Junior days for Poland, Chwalinska could ride a wave here, having spoken recently about going from battling depression and not wanting to play tennis, to being here at Wimbledon living the dream. Riske is good on grass – but can get very nervous at times.
Yanina Wickmayer @ 4/1 (5.0) to beat Jelena Ostapenko. The head-to-head is 1-1, but from several years back now. More recently, Ostapenko made the final at Eastbourne last week, but remains hit and miss on any given day. Wickmayer is back at a Grand Slam after becoming a mother, and after blazing through the qualifiers, is on a run of four straight 2-0 wins on the grass for Wimbledon 2022.
Viktoriya Tomova @ 9/2 (5.5) to beat Maria Sakkari. I underestimated Tomova in the last round. I won’t make that mistake again. Again, the head-to-head is a long time ago, but for what it’s worth, it’s 1-0 to the underdog. Sakkari is a class act, but does have previous for flopping when expected to do well at a Grand Slam.
I like those three as singles, and also splitting a stake four ways across a Trixie (three doubles and a 150/1 treble)…
----------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:
Women’s Match Winner:
Men’s Match Winner:
Men’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
----------------------------------------------------
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Wimbledon Day 4 email.
You can get in touch with me during the tournament by emailing me at:
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson