Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
French Open - Day 7: Teenage dreams - and 100/1 chances...
Saturday 3rd June 2023
Good morning and welcome to Day 7 of your French Open 2023 Daily Service. Play starts at 10am…
Every day of the tournament, I’ll be hitting your inbox with my analysis, picks & advice for the second Grand Slam of the season…
The long matches continue…
Long matches continue to be a theme of this French Open. The new, slower balls probably have something to do with that. Along with the strength in depth in the sport right now - coupled with the wide-open/ anything can happen feel of a Grand Slam, once the shocks start coming…
For example, in the last couple of days we’ve seen fancied names such as Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev both knocked out by significant pre-match underdogs in the men’s, both in epic five-set battles.
While the three-set score-lines continue to roll in the women’s. We had a 2-1 Set Betting score winner at odds of 4/1 the other day - and I’ve got three on the list for this afternoon (see below).
On Friday, we lost Clara Tauson from our tournament Outright Winner book - in a match that went to 7-5 in the third & final set. But another three-setter went our way, with 100/1+ Ones to Watch pick Sloane Stephens winning her match, 2-1, and booking a place in the last 16.
Our current open, Each Way bets in the French Open Outright Winner markets:
Men’s - Taylor Fritz @ 100/1, 80/1
Women’s - Sloane Stephens @ 150/1, 100/1
Teenage dreams - and 100/1 chances…
Today is going to be a big day for our French Open 2023 selections. I’m adding three names to the Outright book at underdog prices. Meaning that in total, we will have so far backed nine players Each Way, across the men’s & women’s events combined. A number which equates to 3.51% of the entire field of 256 competitors that lined up at the start of the tournament. I’m happy with that number. And at the big prices we play at - it only takes one…
With 100/1 Taylor Fritz already in the book, I want to also cover his 3rd-round opponent, FRANCISCO CERUNDOLO. The 24-year-old Argentinean is up to a career-high of no.23 in the world, having reached the final at ATP Lyon the week before Roland Garros. And put in noteworthy performances on bigger stages this clay season, making quarter finals at the Rome Masters, and in Barcelona. Beating the likes of Top 10 names Jannik Sinner, and 2022 French Open runner-up Casper Ruud.
I’ve spoken before about a 70%+ win-rate on a given playing surface being a ‘golden rule’ indicator that can alert us to a dangerous outsider lurking in the draw of a big tournament. Cerundolo has a 70.57% career match win-rate on clay…
What’s more, I expect the French crowd to be cheering for Francisco in today’s match. Fritz was getting the bird from the Roland Garros patrons last time out, and if that happens again today, it’s either going to fire the American up in a good way, or cause him to lose his focus. Let’s back Cerundolo in the Outright market, therefore ensuring we have a 100/1 shot going into week two of the men’s event.
And sticking with that clay-court formbook theme. One more man to add at huge prices from the bottom half this men’s draw - which remember has already seen title contenders Daniil Medvedev and Sinner knocked out, and is the opposite side to the favourites, world no.1 Carlos Alcaraz and no.3 Djokovic. NICOLAS JARRY has the big serve and powerful forehand to deliver some knockout blows of his own on these 2023 Roland Garros courts…
The 27-year-old Chilean is also rocking a career-best ranking, up to no.35. Jarry won ATP Geneva on the eve of Paris. Adding to his Santiago title on clay this season, along with a runner-up showing in Rio de Janeiro - where it took Alcaraz to stop him, 2-1 in the final. This year, Jarry is played 26 won 19 on clay: a 73% win-rate. Beating the likes of Ruud, and two-time French Open semi-finalist Alexander Zverev. Jarry can take advantage of a favourable looking draw today, with odds of 125/1 and 100/1 on the table.
In the women’s event, the ‘youthful match-up’ that I mentioned yesterday will have plenty of eyeballs on it today. Last year’s beaten finalist, 19-year-old Coco Gauff, takes on a new name for us to follow as a genuine, exciting Ones to Watch player: 16-year-old MIRRA ANDREEVA…
The world no.143 from Russia is on a sensational run of form in 2023. And it could be about to become even more spectacular. The teenager has burst onto the scene with a 22-2 overall match win-rate for the year. That’s a remarkable 91.67% win-rate - with every single one of those matches played on clay. Granted, those wins were hardly all against Top 10 names like Gauff. But this 16-year-old is learning fast, and is beating most opponents that are put in front of her…
The pressure is going to be largely on Coco today. Andreeva caught my eye with a fantastically simple quote earlier this week - the kind of statement you only hear from a new, young, fearless player: “I just play as I feel”...
Odds of 33/1 and 25/1 are available for the young Russian to go all the way. In 2021, a teenage Emma Raducanu won the US Open as a debutant, winning 10 matches in a row without dropping a set, coming through three rounds of qualifying and then seven out of seven in the main draw. So far here at the French Open 2023, Andreeva has won five out of five, all in straight sets. That is some serious form and momentum, and we should take note and act accordingly by getting behind Mirra today.
Set Betting picks…
Last but not least this self-proclaimed Big Saturday, here are my three women’s picks for a big-odds 2-1 Set Betting combo:
Three singles, and then splitting a stake four ways across a Trixie (four doubles and the 102/1 treble). The Set Betting markets are widely available with bookies - with these best prices at Ladbrokes & Coral…
Beatriz Haddad Maia to win 2-1 v Ekaterina Alexandrova @ 7/2 (4.5)
Lesia Tsurenko to win 2-1 v Bianca Andreescu @ 19/5 (4.8)
Bernarda Pera to win 2-1 v Elisabetta Cocciaretto @ 19/5 (4.8)
I’m going with the head-to-head formbook there, with those three women all boasting winning records against today’s respective opponents. With the biggest potential rewards coming via the three-set route.
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Ones to Watch picks - French Open
See above for full details
Men’s Outright Winner - Each Way:
Francisco Cerundolo @ 100/1 Bet365, Boylesports (Each Way: 1/2 odds 1-2 places), 100/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook (EW: 1/3 odds 1-2)
Nicolas Jarry @ 125/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook (EW: 1/3 odds 1-2), 100/1 Betfred, Boylesports (EW: 1/2 odds 1-2)
Women’s Outright Winner - Each Way:
Set Betting picks - best prices Ladbrokes & Coral:
Beatriz Haddad Maia to win 2-1 v Ekaterina Alexandrova @ 7/2 (4.5)
Lesia Tsurenko to win 2-1 v Bianca Andreescu @ 19/5 (4.8)
Bernarda Pera to win 2-1 v Elisabetta Cocciaretto @ 19/5 (4.8)
Trixie: Haddad Maia 2-1, Tsurenko 2-1, Pera 2-1 @ 102/1
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You can watch the French Open live on Eurosport.
I’ll be back at 8am tomorrow with your Day 8 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone