Tennis Betting Advice - June 2023
Andy Murray is not messing about...
Thursday 15th June 2023
Andy Murray is not messing about.
Age 36 and with a metal hip. The three-time Grand Slam champion and double Olympic gold-medal winner doesn't have anything to prove in the world of tennis.
But as with all the sporting greats - Andy's will to win comes from within...
Some former world no.1's would turn their nose up at plying their trade in lower-tier ATP Challenger events. Not so, Sir Andy Murray...
The determined Scotsman has won two Challenger titles since the start of May. The first, in France, as he attempted to get his clay game in order ahead of the French Open. Murray ultimately decided to skip Roland Garros, and give himself the very best chance of competing to the highest level possible at Wimbledon next month. Possibly for one last tilt at the trophy...
Already a two-time Wimbledon champion, Andy's legendary status is confirmed. But ever since his near-retirement and comeback from surgery a couple of years ago, Murray has been talking about having another big Grand Slam run in him. It's not media talk. It's not hype. I genuinely believe that Andy genuinely believes he can do this...
Murray's Wimbledon 2023 prep has so far made the perfect start. Andy won the Surbiton Challenger last week. His first title on these shores since his second Wimbledon triumph in 2016. And his first singles trophy on grass since that second success at the All England Club, too.
Back in 2013, in my first ever Wimbledon Daily Service. We were on Murray for his first SW19 title. That year, he was a 4/1 shot at best.
If we act now - we can get odds of 50/1 for Murray to win Wimbledon 2023. And like the man himself - I'm not messing around...
Murray's career match win-loss record on grass stands at 125-36. That equates to a 77.64% win-rate. If you're a regular Ones to Watch reader, then you will know how much I value a 70%+ win-rate on any given playing surface.
While the likes of fellow multiple Wimbledon champs Roger Federer (8 titles), Novak Djokovic (7), and Pete Sampras (7) all boast 80%+ win records on grass. And Rafael Nadal's two titles contribute to his 76% career stat on the green stuff.
Murray's 77% figure - which is still growing by the way, having won two out of two matches at the Nottingham Challenger so far this week - is significantly better than that of many of the men ahead of him in the betting for next month's trip to Wimbledon...
Taking on a field of favourites...
For example, world no.3 Daniil Medvedev holds a 68% match win-rate on the turf. And has never reached the quarter finals at SW19 in five attempts. Although to be fair to the Russian, the tournament was cancelled in 2020, and he was banned from entering in 2022. The fact remains, Daniil's price is not too enticing...
Right now, Medvedev is 7/1 for the trophy. Four-time defending champ and world no.1 Djokovic is odds-on at 8/11 (1.73). New star of the sport Carlos Alcaraz is between those two, at 5/1.
And after that trio of favourites - along with Alcaraz, many of the other 'Next Gen' names have fitness question marks hanging over them as we head towards the Wimbledon start date of 3rd July...
Including the likes of Jannik Sinner (12/1 in general), Nick Kyrgios (25/1 at best), Alexander Zverev (12/1 to 33/1), Holger Rune (14/1 - 35/1), Matteo Berrettini (8/1 - 35/1), and Stefanos Tsitsipas (20/1 - 40/1).
Some of those differences in price suggest the bookies aren't sure what to expect from the likes of Zverev, Rune, Berrettini, and Tsitsipas. Or perhaps how strongly to weight the contenders beyond the odds-on favourite Djokovic, a couple of weeks before play begins and the seedings and the draw are made.
None of those seven next-generation names have lifted the Wimbledon trophy yet. Managing two finals between them: Kyrgios was runner-up last year, and Berrettini in 2021.
And on the fitness issue, those guys might have a good few years on Murray - but they don't yet have his level of five-set, grinding, dig-deep Grand Slam nous...
Andy is well-versed in epic encounters at the Majors. And with the 'home' crowd behind him at Wimbledon, that noise and adrenaline can count for a few extra sprints and serves, too...
Murray sits no.44 in the rankings as I write. He's got his eye on clocking-up some more points on the tour on grass this month, as he aims to land a Top 32 spot to get himself seeded for SW19.
After the names mentioned above - Djokovic, Alcaraz, Medvedev, and the Next Gen lads. Taylor Fritz sits in the Wimbledon 2023 Outright Winner betting at 33/1 & 28/1. And we're already on Taylor at 50/1 or 40/1.
Murray at 50/1 stands out today as a real-deal, Wimbledon outsider for us. That Each Way price is with Skybet and Betfred. While Paddy Power & Betfair Sportsbook stand out at 55/1 as I type this evening. With 40/1 and 33/1 available elsewhere. All of which are likely to drop shorter should Murray win another title and/ or continue to perform well and look healthy on the grass in the SW19 build-up this month.
If he stays fit, this is a bet that could gather some serious momentum come July. That's always a concern for a 36-year-old with injury history. But you can take one thing to the bank for sure: Andy will give absolutely everything he has to compete well and compete hard at Wimbledon next month...
As the man himself said today, after winning his seventh grass-court match in a row this season:
"I'm an old boy now so it takes me a bit longer to recover [between matches] but I'm feeling good"
The two-week format of a Grand Slam affords a day off between matches for that all-important recovery time. And you can bet your bottom dollar the All England Club will do all within their powers to grant Andy a favourable schedule in terms of court times and preferred conditions.
Let's go, Andy...
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See above for full details
Wimbledon 2023 - Men's
Outright Winner - Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
Andy Murray @ 55/1 Paddy Power, Betfair Sportbook, 50/1 Skybet, Betfred, 40/1 Unibet, Betway, 33/1 Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports
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I'll be back soon with more grass-court info and analysis for you...
Note: Coverage from me may be a bit intermittent over the next few weeks, with the baby due this month. I'll keep you posted, of course. But when the moment comes, I'll be offline for a bit!
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at: oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone