Wimbledon: One to Watch at 66/1...

Thursday 27th June 2024

Wimbledon – Email #1

Good afternoon. First of all, thanks so much for all the emails and comments sent my way after last week’s ‘asking for a favour’ email regarding our 150/1 French Open runner-up, Jasmine Paolini. Sounds like several of you landed some large Each Way place payouts. Great stuff.

You and I have been targeting ‘wide-open’ women’s Grand Slams for a decade and counting now…

We’ve managed to latch onto a Ones to Watch outsider getting all the way to the final in three of the last four ladies Majors:

• Wimbledon 2023: Marketa Vondrousova @ 40/1 – Won (backed halfway through last summer’s tournament, having gone off at 150/1)

• Australian Open 2024: Qinwen Zheng @ 33/1 Each Way, Runner-Up

• French Open 2024: Jasmine Paolini @ 150/1 Each Way, Runner-Up

That’s pretty good going, by any standards. Especially considering that with our Ones to Watch selections, we deal almost exclusively in backing underdogs and/ or youngsters…

Those recent women’s Grand Slam results contribute to these overall stats, which give us plenty of continued encouragement to go after the big prices at the big events:

• 100/1 champs… 5 of the last 15 women's Grand Slams have produced a 100/1+ champion

• Maiden winners… 18 of the last 34 women's Grand Slams have been won by players lifting a Major trophy for the first time

• Different names on the trophy… Since the Australian Open 2017 – when Serena Williams won her last Major – the last 29 women's Grand Slams have produced 18 different winning players

• Big prices… 12 of the last 17 women's Grand Slams have produced at least one finalist at Day One odds of 33/1+

• Huge Each Way potential… And 10 of the last 30 women’s Grand Slam finalists started the tournament as 100/1+ outsiders

Wimbledon: One to Watch at 66/1…

For our first Wimbledon pick of 2024, we’re returning to one of the names listed above…

Our 33/1 Aussie Open breakthrough star, Qinwen Zheng. I’ve deliberately held back on recommending many bets on the Chinese player since that big Melbourne moment, as it’s very common to see a post-debut-Grand-Slam-final ‘slump’ from a newcomer on the big stage. Also, the bookies can tend to overreact to success, and install a player at shorter prices for tournaments immediately after they ‘burst onto the scene’…

A few months have passed since Australia, though. And with Wimbledon starting next Monday, now is the time for us to get behind Qinwen Zheng once again – with some appealing 66/1 Each Way odds on the table…

Since appearing in my pre-season Ones to Watch in 2024 report, the 21-year-old has become a Top 10 player. Currently residing at no.8 in the world rankings, a position that gives Zheng a high seeding in the Women’s Singles draw for Wimbledon.

The draw itself takes place tomorrow, but I’m otherwise engaged this Friday. And besides, I like Qinwen Zheng’s 66/1 price today. It could go up or down between now and when she plays her 1st Round match next week. But we’ll take 66s in the account right now…

On her Wimbledon debut in 2022, the clean-hitting Chinese youngster made the 3rd Round. A result made notable by the fact that the player who stopped Zheng at the All England Club that July, via a close 7-6, 7-5 score-line, was none other than Elena Rybakina… who then went on to go all the way, and win her first career Grand Slam title.

Serve could prove key on the grass at SW19…

Qinwen Zheng’s serving stats mark her out as one to watch on the zippy Wimbledon playing surfaces. Big servers traditionally do well on grass. And the recent hot weather may only help to firm up the SW19 courts, ready for some speedy serves to blaze off the chalk…

• Zheng won her first full-level WTA Tour title in 2022. That year, she finished inside the Top 10 for Most Aces (8th)

• In 2023, the upcoming Chinese talent continued to showcase her serving abilities. Ending the season ranked 4th for Most Aces in the women’s game, and joint-1st for % of 1st Serve Points Won (73.7%)

• So far in 2024, the powerful right-hander sits joint-5th on the Official WTA Stats Leaderboard for Most Aces, and 5th for % of 1st Serve Points Won (74.8%)

Any number above 70% is impressive when it comes to percentage of 1st Serve Points Won. And those consistently high Aces tallies can also help drive Qinwen Zheng deep into the Wimbledon draw…

In her first grass-court match of this season, Zheng beat former world no.1 Naomi Osaka in Berlin – firing down 23 Aces, the highest tally of any female player all year, and the most in a single match by any woman since 2022.

Of course, you need more than a serve. And you don’t get to be a steady Top 10 player on serve alone. Zheng has a classy all-round game, operating at a very high level when she hits form and is ‘in the zone.’ If the 21-year-old clicks into gear again at Wimbledon, then odds of 66/1 will look very interesting for us…

As I’ve said before, Qinwen Zheng likes the big occasion, and is fiercely ambitious to reach the top of the sport. You can’t teach those attributes. This is a youngster with genuine Ones to Watch credentials for landing a Grand Slam title.

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Ones to Watch picks – Wimbledon:

See above for full details

Wimbledon 2024

Women’s Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):

• Qinwen Zheng @ 66/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Coral, 888 Sport

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Wimbledon starts on Monday. I’ll be back then with Email #2, including our first look at the Men’s Outright Winner market.

You can watch the tournament live on the BBC, with multi-court coverage on the Red Button and iPlayer.

P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:

oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Ones to Watch