Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018
ATP Indian Wells - 6/1, 25/1 and 66/1 picks...
Thursday 8th March 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
ATP Indian Wells – Outright Winner betting...
Event: ATP Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Date: 8th - 18th March
Yesterday we got our Women’s Indian Wells bets down. Today it’s the Men’s turn and having gone through the draw and the prices, three players catch my eye – see below.
First things first, here’s the top of the Outright Winner market:
Roger Federer is 6/5 (2.20) and the clear favourite. The World No.1 is the reigning Indian Wells champion, current Australian Open and Wimbledon champion and has won 9 out of 12 tournaments in the last 12 months.
At 6/5 he is a ‘must win’ price so it’s not for me. But Federer gets the utmost respect and with that in mind it makes sense to look to sections of the draw that avoid Roger until the final…
Marin Cilic @ 25/1
There’s no Andy Murray or Rafael Nadal here – as has been the case in several recent big tournaments. One name that jumps out for me right away is Marin Cilic at 25/1…
Cilic is the World No.3 and has made the final in two of the last three Grand Slams (Wimbledon 2017 and Australian Open this year). Considering those impressive results, it’s surprising to see the Croatian as big as 25/1 here. He was a similar price for Wimbledon and the Australian Open, and we got Each Way payouts from him on both occasions.
Djokovic and Del Potro are both in the bottom half with Cilic, but those two are both yet to prove they can go all the way in a big (long) tournament like this after injury layoffs.
Djokovic is the most recent and high profile – not seen since losing at the Aussie Open when clearly under par. Del Potro won Acapulco last week but I still believe he struggles to back up one tournament run with another.
At the very bottom of the draw, Cilic is seeded to make the semi finals – that would require getting past Djokovic, something he did for the very first time in his career in their most recent meeting in 2016. And that’s if the returning Djokovic gets that far of course.
Lucas Pouille @ 66/1, 50/1 or 40/1
My other pick in the bottom half is Lucas Pouille at 40/1+ and as big as 66/1 with Skybet. The Frenchman is a player I’ve mentioned several times before as one on the up – he’s been a 10/1 and 25/1 winner for us in recent seasons, and features on our current Ones to Watch in 2018 list.
Pouille has already made three ATP finals this season – winning one – and aged 24 he looks ready to make that extra step up to the business end of the really big tournaments. He seems a more steady player these days (I’ve previously had him in the ‘erratic Frenchman’ bracket), while still possessing the flare to hit winners and Hollywood shots too, especially on his forehand.
In the 3rd Quarter of the draw, Pouille can’t meet Cilic until a potential semi final. But looking at the more immediate challenges, Lucas is capable of getting past the likes of Alexander Zverev, Sam Querrey and Jack Sock who have all made pretty poor starts to their seasons compared to their 2017 successes.
The new & improved Pouille is up to a career high of No.12 in the world and could be a breakthrough player here. I like him at 40/1+ Each Way for a small stake, and also at 11/2 or 5/1 to win his Quarter.
Kevin Anderson @ 6/1 for his Quarter
Finally, back to the top of the draw and Kevin Anderson is the form man for me…
Anderson is 33/1 for the title but that would likely require taking out Federer to get an Each Way reward – something he’s never done. However the 2nd Quarter Winner market allows us to take Federer out of the equation, and at 6/1 Anderson looks the value to get through to the semi final.
Dimitrov and Kyrgios are the favourites above him in the betting, but the formbook suggests Anderson is being underrated a little here. The 6’8” South African is another player to hit a career high ranking this year, breaking into the Top 10.
Anderson has made two finals on hard courts already this season – one trophy win, one runner-up – and has in fact reached the final in three of his last four tournament appearances on hard courts.
Big Kevin was runner-up at the US Open last summer, so like fellow big server Cilic he has recent Grand Slam level credentials to his name, too.
Here at Indian Wells, Anderson has twice made the quarter finals before – most recently in 2016 where he lost to Federer. He can’t meet Fed until the semi finals this time.
Those three players are my pre-tournament picks in the Men’s Indian Wells betting. Play starts (and the markets will temporarily go down) from 7pm this evening.
ATP Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
BET: Marin Cilic @ 25/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 25/1 (26.00) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, BetVictor
STAKE: 0.5 pt – Each Way (total stake 1 pt)
BET: Lucas Pouille @ 66/1, 50/1 or 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 66/1 (67.00) Skybet, 50/1 (51.00) BetVictor, 40/1 (41.00) general
STAKE: 0.25 pt – Each Way (total stake 0.5 pt)
BET: 2nd Quarter Winner – Kevin Anderson @ 6/1
BOOKIES: 6/1 (7.00) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/2 (6.50) NetBet, 10Bet
STAKE: 1 pt
BET: 3rd Quarter Winner – Lucas Pouille @ 11/2 or 5/1
BOOKIES: 11/2 (6.50) Skybet, 5/1 (6.00) Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, NetBet, 10Bet
STAKE: 0.5 pt
I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the match betting opportunities in the early rounds. Indian Wells runs all the way through to next weekend – the Men’s event is live on Sky Sports and the Women’s is on BT Sport.
Enjoy the tennis...
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