Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018

Every cloud has a Silva lining...

Friday 2nd March 2018

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Snow, sun – and treading water…
  • Right to avoid the favourites…
  • 7/2 Set Betting the value in Sao Paulo…

Snow, sun – and treading water…

We’re treading water a bit lately, with another ‘won one lost one’ night on our match picks yesterday.

I love following the tennis, but it’s a strange life sometimes – late at night, I can be sat with snow falling outside my window, watching players toiling in the heat & sunshine on the other side of the world…

Feliciano Lopez certainly didn’t seem to be having much fun in the Acapulco sun yesterday, losing rather limply to Jared Donaldson, 6-3, 6-1. Lopez only won 7 pts in the 2nd Set (to 27 pts for his opponent). Having back Lopez on the back of some good performances this week, it was frustrating to see him surrender so easily last night.

In Brazil, things went much more to plan with our pick Rogerio Dutra Silva comfortably getting past Nicolas Kicker, 6-4, 6-2. More on Silva in a minute.

Right to avoid the favourites…

Our Outright Winner picks are where we go after the biggest prices and where we will get the biggest profits, long term. I say ‘long term’ and that’s important to remember – we can’t land a 20/1 tournament winner or Each Way payout every week. In the last couple of seasons a handful of results like that has been more than enough to end the year in overall profit.

It’s a game of patience. Of finding value. And of sticking to our guns. Our 18/1 pick Kristina Mladenovic went out in the WTA Acapulco quarter finals last night – but the 7/1 and 8/1 pre-tournament favourites Belinda Bencic (1st Round) and Sloane Stephens (quarter finals) won’t be collecting the silverware this week, either.

We’ll continue to go for players that catch the eye at attractive outsider prices. Next week we have the first Masters event of the year, in Indian Wells. As I’ll report later on today in your additional Ones to Watch EXTRA email, the Masters events have a mouth-watering recent history for big-price ‘shocks & surprises.’

And sticking with the good prices today…

7/2 Set Betting the value in Sao Paulo…

Horacio Zeballos v Rogerio Dutra Silva

ATP Sao Paulo – Brasil Open

Match scheduled: 6.30pm+

Rankings: Zeballos #69, Dutra Silva #106
Head-to-Head: Dutra Silva 5-4

This is a similar situation to yesterday, with a close-looking clay-court match and an Argentinean priced up as the slight favourite to beat a Brazilian in Brazil…

Dutra Silva is once again on the edge of the betting at Evens (2.00), but this time I rate his opponent Horacio Zeballos more than Nicolas Kicker yesterday.

Both men are in their thirties and have met several times before. Overall the head-to-head is 5-4 to Dutra Silva. Zeballos has won the last two (2017), but Dutra Silva won the four previous – and on clay it’s 5-2 to the Brazilian.

In fact, in clay-court meetings in South America, Dutra Silva is 5-0 on the head-to-head.

The 34-year-old Brazilian has never made an ATP final, but with the home crowd on his side and two good results posted already this week – he has a good chance to make it to the semi finals this evening…

Dutra Silva is the 12/1 outsider from the eight players left in the Sao Paulo draw, but Zeballos is next in line at around 10/1 so again there really isn’t much in this.

Form and stats can be read in different ways – Zeballos has just had a very good win over Gael Monfils, but both his victories this week have gone the distance to three sets and that might catch up with the 32-year-old eventually here.

Dutra Silva has yet to lose his serve in two matches this week, which is quite some feat on clay. That might change tonight against this familiar foe, but the Brazilian looks the value here and rather than take Evens (2.00) in the Match Winner betting – I like odds of 7/2 (4.50) in the Set Betting market for Dutra Silva to win 2-1.

These two have a history of close matches with three of the last five meetings going the distance to three sets, and Dutra Silva coming out on top on two of those three occasions.

Odds of 7/2 (4.50) for a three-set win for Dutra Silva look the best way to get value from a close-looking match here, where we favour the slight underdog.

ATP Sao Paulo – Brasil Open

Horacio Zeballos v Rogerio Dutra Silva

BET: Set Betting – Rogerio Dutra Silva to win 2-1 @ 7/2
BOOKIES: 7/2 (4.50) Bet365, William Hill, 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet, 10Bet
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here

There’ll be no Sunday update from me this weekend – Indian Wells doesn’t start until Wednesday, so we’ll take our first look at the Outright Winner betting before then. Both the men and women will be in action and it’s a big tournament with plenty to look forward to…

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch