Tennis Betting Advice - March 2018
WTA Indian Wells - 28/1, 80/1 and 150/1 picks...
Wednesday 7th March 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
WTA Indian Wells – Outright Winner betting...
Event: WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Date: 7th - 18th March
The women’s Indian Wells event starts this evening (first match 7pm UK time), and as promised we’re taking our first look at the Outright Winner betting today...
Last year this tournament saw 100/1 Elena Vesnina beat 50/1 Svetlana Kuznetsova in the final.
The current crop of top players are all pretty closely bunched together in the betting (see table below).
Returning stars like Serena Williams (14/1), Maria Sharapova (28/1) and Victoria Azarenka (50/1) are all somewhat unknown quantities with little-to-no recent competitive court time to go on.
There’s every reason to attack the bigger prices in the Outright list here...
The top of the market looks like this:
The bookies can’t split Halep, Wozniacki and Svitolina all at 9/1, and there’s not much difference in the prices for fellow Top 10 players Kvitova, Kerber and Muguruza either.
One of those big names may well win it, but the prices don’t appeal to me and at those odds it’s very much a case of ‘pick one.’
Whereas at the bigger end of the spectrum we can spread our stakes across three players at much more attractive Each Way prices...
28/1, 80/1 and 150/1 Each Way picks...
I’m going for three outsiders:
Barbora Strycova @ 150/1
Having studied the draw, it wouldn’t take many ‘upsets’ for Barbora Strycova to find herself in the quarter finals...
The World No.25 is seeded here, meaning she gets a bye in the 1st Round. After that in Strycova’s section Johanna Konta (best results two quarter final runs from 11 tournaments since Wimbledon) and Kuznetsova (returning from injury for first appearance of 2018) are the seeded players in her path.
Strycova won her only previous meeting with Konta, on hard courts in Japan last year.
The Czech player has a temper on her and blows hot and cold, but at genuine rank outsider odds of 150/1 she could string a few wins together and prove value here.
Julia Goerges @ 28/1
Strycova is in the top half of the draw, which is Halep’s side. My other two picks are in the bottom half where Wozniacki is the highest seeded player and the likes of Kerber, Svitolina and Serena Williams also lurk...
Julia Goerges is 12th seed and also has a 1st Round bye. The German has been one of the form women on the tour for a few months now – she was a 7/1 winner for us at the WTA Elite Trophy in Zhuhai towards the end of last season, part of a 15-match winning run that saw her win three titles in a row.
Goerges has also made a semi final and quarter final so far this season, and her game really has stepped up a level in the latter part of career. At 28/1, she ticks the box as a best-of-the-rest pick from outside of the Top 10.
For 2018 to date, from players with 10+ matches to their name, Goerges is ranked No.1 on the WTA Stats for Service Games Won (85%), 1st Serve Points Won (75%) and for Most Aces, too.
She could meet Serena for a place in the quarter finals but there really is no guaranteeing that Williams will get that far – her coach has already stated that the remaining three Grand Slams are Serena’s three real goals for 2018.
Svitolina could wait in the quarter finals, but it’s worth knowing that Goerges has a 2-0 head-to-head there including a win on hard courts in North America last year. She has the power to mix it with the big guns.
Daria Kasatkina @ 80/1 or 66/1
My other pick is a young Russian who featured in our Ones to Watch in 2017 list. Daria Kasatkina has started the season in promising form with semi final run in St Petersburg, followed by an impressive run to the Dubai final as a 40/1 underdog, where she beat Muguruza in the semis.
Still only 20 years old, Kasatkina looks to be growing in confidence with a positive on-court demeanour, smiling and joking with her coach, rather than beating herself up – and her game is improving with each season.
Seeded No.20 and priced as big as 80/1 and 66/1, Kasatkina also has a 1st Round bye and can take advantage of an area of the draw where Sloane Stephens is 13th seed but short on confidence and form since winning the US Open.
Wozniacki lurks before the quarter final stage but again the recent head-to-head is in our player’s favour, with Kasatkina beating the World No.2 (who was then No.1) in St Petersburg just last month.
For small stakes, these three players are my pre-tournament picks in the Women’s draw.
WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
BET: Julia Goerges @ 28/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 28/1 (29.00) Boylesports, Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Betway, BetVictor
STAKE: 0.5 pt – Each Way (total stake 1 pt)
BET: Daria Kasatkina @ 80/1 or 66/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 80/1 (81.00) Boylesports, 66/1 (67.00) Skybet, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Betway
STAKE: 0.25 pt – Each Way (total stake 0.5 pt)
BET: Barbora Strycova @ 150/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 150/1 (151.00) Boylesports, Bet365, Skybet, Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power
STAKE: 0.25 pt – Each Way (total stake 0.5 pt)
I’ll be back tomorrow with our preview and picks for the Men’s Indian Wells event.
Enjoy the tennis...