Tennis Betting Advice - March 2019
9/1 Andreescu in the semi finals…
Friday 1st March 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
9/1 Andreescu in the semi finals…
For the fifth week running since the Australian Open, we’ve got a player into a semi final.
This week’s most promising pick has proved to be 18-year-old Bianca Vanessa Andreescu, who we backed at the start of the week for WTA Acapulco at 9/1 Each Way.
The teenager came into the tournament on a seven-match streak, and that run is now up to 10 wins in a row after three straight 2-0 victories in Mexico this week. Bianca needs one more win to land us the place odds, and two more for the full 9/1 (10.00) payout…
Andreescu is now down to 5/2 (3.50) at best to take the title.
The bookies make our player an 8/11 (1.73) favourite to beat Sofia Kenin in tonight’s semi final (2am, UK time – live on BT Sport). Her opponent is 6/5 (2.20).
Kenin is a familiar name. The 20-year-old American was a 100/1 pick for us just last week in Dubai – blowing three match points for a chance to reach the quarter finals.
The American has had a funny run through the Acapulco draw this week. She has lost a stack of service games, yet has managed to get herself back in contention in each match once the ball’s in play from her opponent. Kenin has also had some help along the way. Her first two opponents retired without completing the match – one of them being our 75/1 outside bet Katie Boulter, who fell ill.
Then last night, Kenin had to come from a break of serve down in all three sets before eventually battling past Victoria Azarenka, who also served for the match at 5-4 in the final set. That match lasted over two and a half hours. Either Kenin’s name is on the trophy – or she’s about to run out of lives.
Andreescu had a tough one last night too, with her 7-6, 6-1 win over Saisai Zheng just nudging past the two-hour mark.
Stick or twist…
Last week we had a 33/1 teenager in the WTA Budapest semi finals. On that occasion, Anastasia Potapova went in the semi as the underdog. With her opponent odds-on for the win, committing a large chunk of our potential payout to a large ‘saver bet’ didn’t appeal to me (otherwise I would have emailed you).
This evening I’m reluctant to place an official ‘saver’ but for a different reason. At 9/1 Each Way, Andreescu isn’t one of our larger-price picks. As such there aren’t as many points to play with in terms of juggling the books.
There’s also the possibility that any match bet could end up being void tonight (depending on your bookmaker’s rulebook), if either of these players were to come a cropper through injury, fatigue or heat-induced illness.
If you do want to protect your original stakes on Andreescu, then the match betting move would be to stake the same size total stake on Kenin to beat her at Evens+ (2.00+).
Those of you who prefer to trade your Outright Winner positions have a decent price switch to work with, with 9/1 Andreescu now as short as 2/1 (3.00) for the title.
For me – I’m letting this one ride, as they say.
The bigger picture is, if we keep getting players into quarters & semi finals as we have been, then we’re going to come out well in the long term – when one of our players makes it the full way to the trophy podium.
That’s my take on things today. I’ll be back next week ready for the first Masters event of the season, Indian Wells in California. That starts on Wednesday, so there’ll be no Sunday night Outright Winner preview from me this weekend.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson