Tennis Betting Advice - March 2019

This week’s picks – at 16/1 and 20/1…

Sunday 31st March 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • March madness delivers again…
  • Ones to Watch this week…
  • WTA Monterrey & WTA Charleston…

We didn’t end up on the winning players in Miami. But at the prices we go for, the occasional ‘big one’ is enough to keep us in good spirits. Thanks to Bianca Andreescu (28/1 or 30/1) at Indian Wells, we came out of the March ‘Masters’ double-header with a good win in the bag.

The Miami Open delivered once again on the outsider prices, albeit not for my picks. Roger Federer won the ATP event at 7/2 (4.50), but apart from that it was all bigger prices. John Isner was the 40/1 men’s runner-up. Ashleigh Barty won the WTA Miami title (28/1), for the biggest trophy win of her career to date – beating 16/1 Karolina Pliskova in the final.

The ATP Tour is on hold for the Davis Cup this coming week. But the women are in action with two WTA tournaments, in Monterrey, Mexico (hard court) and Charleston, USA (clay)…

Ones to Watch in Charleston & Monterrey…

Starting with the ‘green clay courts of the WTA Charleston event, we’re sticking with a player who made the Indian Wells semis for us at a big price. Belinda Bencic is on a roll in recent months, working her way back up the rankings after a tough couple of years with injury. She’s Top 20 again now and on course to go higher. Few points to defend in the tournaments to come = playing with little pressure.

The 22-year-old from Switzerland is a former semi-finalist here in Charleston (2014). With an understandable post-Indian Wells dip behind her – losing in her opening Miami match after a 12-match winning streak – Bencic can get straight back to business this week and looks to have a decent draw in the bottom half.

Last year’s beaten finalist Julia Goerges is at a similar price to 16/1 Bencic and in the same quarter of the draw. But the German lost her only previous clay-court meeting v Belinda. And Goerges has been out-of-sorts in recent tournaments, only once managing to win back-to-back matches in five events since the start of the Australian Open.

Charleston is a Premier level event. Down at WTA Monterrey – which is a smaller-scale tournament, graded International level – I like Alison Riske at 20/1

The 28-year-old American is the archetypal hit-or-miss type of player on the women’s tour: going big on her shots and brilliant when on fire, but ropey for large spells in between. Catching her at the right tournament on the right surface is key. This out-of-the-limelight event could fit the bill, along with a draw-sheet that for the most part is far from scary.

Riske likes to use pace and that fits in with her ‘streaky’ nature – when her game is all clicking into place, she can look very impressive both on serve and in play. Riske has already made one final on hard courts this season (WTA Shenzhen). Last year she ran into the eventual champion Garbine Muguruza. The Spaniard is a 4/1 second-favourite to defend her trophy. She can’t face Riske until the semis. The tournament favourite is Angelique Kerber at a top price of just 5/2 (3.50) in the opposite side of the draw.

Twelve months ago, we backed Sachia Vickery here at 25/1 and she made the semi finals. Her form has been poor for quite some time now – Vickey is 66/1 this week – and my take is that Riske will take out her fellow American in the 1st Round. That would see Riske’s 20/1 price drop and the rest of that segment of the draw looks very winnable for Alison up to the semi final stage (and even then, that’s assuming Muguruza has a good week). This situation is about as much as you can ask for with an outsider bet…

Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:

WTA Charleston – Volvo Car Open

Outright Winner:

BET: Belinda Bencic @ 16/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 16/1 (17.00) Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

WTA Monterrey – Abierto GNP Seguros

BET: Alison Riske @ 20/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 20/1 (21.00) Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts on Monday from 3pm (UK time) in Charleston, and 5pm in Monterrey.

I’ll be back over the next few days with more from this week’s two WTA tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch