Tennis Betting Advice - March 2019

WTA Indian Wells picks – at 11/1 and 100/1...

Wednesday 6th March 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Indian Wells...
  • Play starts 7pm...
  • Outright Winner picks...

Go big at Indian Wells...

Some tournaments lend themselves to shocks and surprises. Indian Wells is one of them…

The punishing conditions in the Californian desert… scorching heat, blustery winds… the large draw, with the top seeds having to play more matches than usual to navigate a route to the final…

It all adds up to prime outsider betting territory. Which is what you & I specialise in with our Ones to Watch picks.

The ‘March madness’ starts at 7pm, live on BT Sport. And that’s just for the WTA Indian Wells event. The men get underway on Thursday with ATP Indian Wells at the same venue. After that we have the Miami Open, with the men & women in action again.

These two annual March events are the two biggest tournaments outside of the four Grand Slams. In recent years, the prices have been big, too…

In the women’s events alone, we’ve seen:

  • WTA Indian Wells 2018 Final: N.Osaka 125/1 beat D.Kasatkina 80/1
  • WTA Indian Wells 2017 Final: E.Vesnina 100/1 beat S.Kuznetsova 50/1
  • WTA Miami 2018 Final: S.Stephens 66/1 beat J.Ostapenko 50/1
  • WTA Miami 2016: Runner-up – S.Kuznetsova 100/1

Those prices are huge.

Last year we were on Kasatkina in Indian Wells at 80/1 Each Way, for a 40/1 place payout.

We’re going after the big prices again today...

This week’s picks – at 11/1, 100/1 and 100/1...

Just like a Grand Slam, Indian Wells is a 128-name draw, meaning seven rounds are required to win the trophy. The only difference being that the 32 seeded players get a Bye through to the 2nd Round.

With an event of this scale, there are several players that could tick a few boxes as potential Outright Winner selections. And barring any withdrawals, the top 28 women in the world rankings are all here from day one, so there are plenty of big names to contend with too.

In the top half, reigning champion Naomi Osaka leads the way, with a new coach on board. Last year Osaka broke through to win at 125/1 here, paving the way for a US Open triumph (50/1) and the World No.1 spot. This time she goes off as an 8/1 joint-second favourite.

The other players at single-figure prices are in the bottom half, with Serena Williams the outright market leader at 6/1 and Simona Halep at 8/1.

Just behind those, the form player from the star names is undoubtedly World No.3, Petra Kvitova (11/1). Rejuvenated since coming back from a horrific hand injury a year ago, the Czech is looking ominous this season: Sydney (won), Australian Open (runner-up) and most recently Dubai (runner-up). Overall, Kvitova has won 17 out of 21 matches so far in 2019.

The 3rd seed here, Kvitova has the mental strength, big-match nous and current-form confidence to prove the best of the Top 10 players at Indian Wells. In her section of the draw (Quarter 2) the likes of 15th seed Julia Goerges (66/1), 9th seed Aryna Sabalenka (20/1) and 8th seed Angelique Kerber (16/1) have all been uncharacteristically lacklustre in recent weeks.

In the bottom half, we’re going after the more exotic prices with two outsider selections...

Dayana Yastremska (100/1) is precisely the type of player we should be backing at big prices in the women’s events. The 18-year-old plays no-fear attacking tennis, she’s well up for the fight and she wants to be in the big-time. One of our Ones to Watch in 2019 names, Yastremska has already lifted a WTA trophy this year. And she is genuinely capable of taking out any of the top players on hard courts right now. The young Ukrainian is in Quarter 3 of the draw.

And down in Quarter 4...

Qiang Wang (100/1) is also on our 2019 list. The 27-year-old is up to a career-high No.18 in the rankings after a stellar second half of 2018 that saw the Chinese player finish the campaign with a run of: Semi Final, Final, Semi Final, Semi Final, Final, Semi Final.

Perhaps understandably after that burst of successful activity, the new season started with a bit of a slump. But after splitting with her coach, Wang is now showing signs of getting back to business and moving forwards again. Her 2019 form has got progressively better: 1st Round, 3rd Round and then a Semi Final last time out... and that Semi came right here at Indian Wells last week in the lower-tier ‘Challenger’ event, which is in itself a decent quality tournament these days.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:

WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open

BET: Petra Kvitova @ 11/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 11/1 (12.00) Bet365, 10/1 (11.00) NetBet, 10Bet, 9/1 (10.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Skybet

BET: Dayana Yastremska @ 100/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 100/1 (101.00) Skybet, 80/1 (81.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 66/1 (67.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, NetBet, 10Bet

BET: Qiang Wang @ 100/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 100/1 (101.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, 80/1 (81.00) Skybet, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

We’ll look at the Men’s draw tomorrow, with the ATP event getting underway on Thursday evening.

The Women start today (7pm), and those three above are my Outright Winner picks: Kvitova as the most likely of the big names, and Yastremska and Wang as two big-price outsiders...

Enjoy the tennis...

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch