Tennis Betting Advice - March 2019
WTA Miami – two 33/1 underdogs…
Monday 25th March 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
March madness continues in Miami…
Exactly a fortnight ago, we started Week Two of Indian Wells by backing Bianca Andreescu at odds 30/1 & 28/1. The 18-year-old went on to win the next four matches and take the title.
Remarkably, the teenager is still going strong in Miami. Andreescu’s overall winning streak is now up to 10 matches in a row. For the second time in this breakthrough month, the youngster is one win away from a quarter final in one of the biggest tournaments on the calendar.
The difference is, this time Bianca is into the last 16 and priced at just 6/1 at best to take the trophy. We got the value in Indian Wells by taking the bigger odds while she was still (relatively) unknown. Our big-price tactic remains the same for Week Two at WTA Miami – see below.
It was a weekend of shocks with the women’s Miami Open draw in particular taking some big hits…
World No.1 Naomi Osaka is out. Serena Williams has pulled out. And reigning champion Sloane Stephens is out, too.
In the men’s event, World No.3 Alexander Zverev flattered to deceive once again, crashing out in the 2nd Round. And while Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are still in the draw, both were far from their best in their latest matches, dropping sets in both cases – both against much lower-ranked opposition.
Our two ATP Miami outsiders have started well. Nick Kyrgios (33/1) has been as entertaining as ever – including an Ace on a cheeky underarm serve last night and a load of trick-shot ‘tweeners in his opening brace of match wins. And along with all the fun & games, Nick has pulled off some absolutely world-class shots. As ever with this big Aussie – if his head’s right, then he’s a serious threat to anyone in the draw.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (33/1) opened with a 2-0 win and is a strong favourite in the betting to get past Leonardo Mayer tonight.
There’s still a lot of tennis to play in Miami, especially in the men’s event which is a day behind the women’s schedule. But as it stands Kyrgios is now down to 10/1 and Tsitsipas is 18/1. Only Djokovic & Federer sit above our men in the revised Outright Winner market.
WTA Miami – two 33/1 underdogs…
A tournament this big gives us plenty of chances to get involved. Our initial two 100/1 outsiders for the WTA Miami title are out (Sofia Kenin & Danielle Collins). But with 16 players a win away from the quarter finals, and plenty of upsets already on the new courts at the Hard Rock Stadium, we’re going in again with two underdogs today…
The consensus is that those new courts are playing pretty slow. That’s backed up by a few wins and good performances in the early rounds by players best known for their clay-court pedigree. These conditions – a higher bounce and more time to construct points – also play into the hands of crafty players. And they don’t come more crafty or skilful than Su-Wei Hsieh…
With ‘Ninja’ Agnieszka Radwanska now retired, World No.27 Hsieh takes up the mantle as the standout what-they-lack-in-power-they-make-up-for-in-skill player. The 33-year-old from Chinese Taipei has a vast array of drop-shots, lobs and slices as well as an accurate and deceptively strong forehand. She’s a tricky opponent and has been in good form this year, downing some big names including World No.1 Osaka here in Miami. And also beating Top 10 players Karolina Pliskova and Angelique Kerber this season.
Caroline Wozniacki presents a tough test this evening but with the Dane still working her way back to full fitness, Hsieh may never have a better chance than this week to make a serious challenge for a Premier Mandatory title. Odds of 33/1 and 25/1+ make her an underdog worth latching onto here.
In the opposite side of the draw, another in-form Chinese player catches the eye at 40/1 and 33/1…
Yafan Wang isn’t getting much attention. But after winning a maiden WTA title in Acapulco last month, the 24-year-old has cracked the Top 50 for the first time. She’s won eight of her last nine matches, including three 2-0 wins in a row here in Miami – one against a Top 10 opponent in Elina Svitolina.
Confidence will be at an all-time high and tonight’s match against a Chinese opponent – higher-ranked and shorter-priced namesake Qiang Wang – looks like a decent underdog match-up to me. The spotlight won’t be on this one and Yafan Wang can continue her 2019 burst by making the quarter finals.
And from then on in this section of the draw, the likes of Venus Williams or Simona Halep might not have a lot left in the tank after playing each other. Both Williams & Halep were sporting bandaged legs yesterday.
We’ve already got two 33/1 shots going for us in the men’s event. We’re adding two 33/1 underdogs to our women’s picks today.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:
WTA Miami – Miami Open
Outright Winner:
BET: Su-Wei Hsieh @ 33/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 33/1 (34.00) Skybet, 30/1 (31.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 28/1 (29.00) BetVictor, 25/1 (26.00) in general
BET: Yafan Wang @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) Boylesports, 33/1 (34.00) Bet365, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Unibet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway
Today’s play starts at 3pm. I’ll be back during the week with more from Miami.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson