Tennis Betting Advice - March 2019

WTA Miami Open – two 100/1+ outsiders…

Tuesday 19th March 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • WTA Miami Open…
  • Ones to Watch @ 100/1 and 150/1…
  • Kenin & Collins up for a fight…

Hard Rock tennis…

The Miami Open gets underway today. The women’s 1st Round matches start from 3.30pm, UK time.

This year this prestigious tournament has a new home. Billed as ‘tennis in a football stadium,’ the Miami Open has set up camp inside the all-mod-cons complex of the Hard Rock Stadium, home of NFL side the Miami Dolphins.

Martina Navratilova made a good point the other day. With every tennis court here being brand new, in theory they should all play pretty much the same in terms of pace and bounce.

It’s a new setting for everyone, which can also help to level the playing field. Whether you’re World No.1 or ranked outside the Top 100, this will be your first experience of playing tennis at the Hard Rock venue. The exception being the players that have come through qualifying and had a couple of matches to get used to the conditions. That angle could lead to a couple of upsets in the early rounds, too.

Recent instalments of the Miami Open have produced several big-price finalists. Especially last year, when the women’s final saw 50/1 Sloane Stephens beat 66/1 Jelena Ostapenko. The men’s 2018 final had 80/1 John Isner beating 25/1 Alexander Zverev to claim the biggest title of his career.

Two American winners last year then – a rare coup for the USA these days. Two home players could shake things up again in the women’s event this fortnight…

Ones to Watch at 100/1 and 150/1…

After 18-year-old wildcard Bianca Andreescu won Indian Wells last week, there’s every encouragement to back the youngsters and outsiders here at WTA Miami.

The bookies are a little undecided on Andreescu’s chances. The Outright Winner prices vary from 14/1 to 25/1. After seven tough matches last week to win her first ever Senior title, pulling off the Indian Wells & Miami double would be a quite monumental achievement. Former World No.1 Victoria Azarenka did it in 2016. It’s not impossible. But it’s a big, big ask. I’m happy to look elsewhere…

In the same section in the top half of the draw, Sofia Kenin (100/1) is one to watch. The 20-year-old American has really stepped up & onto the scene this season. Kenin finished 2017 ranked outside the Top 100, ended 2018 just outside the Top 50 – and she’s now up to No.34 and pushing to go higher.

That recent leap has come via a fantastic start to 2019. Sofia – or ‘Sonya’ as she is often known – won Hobart in January for her first WTA title. She backed that up by reaching the Acapulco final at the start of this month, beating Andreescu in the semi finals. Kenin is a real fighter. Winning from behind is no concern for her. She looks to be made of strong stuff. At 100/1, she is well in the bracket as ‘potential shock’ material.

In the bottom half of the draw, Danielle Collins (150/1) is another feisty American who will fight for every ball…

The 100/1+ prices pitch the 25-year-old as a rank outsider. But this is a player sitting at No.26 in the world, who made the semi finals at Miami last year – and the semi finals at the Australian Open this year.

Those big runs were breakthrough moments for the US college champion, yes. But they weren’t flukes. Collins has got game. She blows hot and cold. But if she has one of her in-the-zone fortnights here, she can carve up the draw and take out anyone. The long-shot odds allow for that element of doubt.

Collins is on record as saying she loves playing ‘at home’ in the States. This is the right setting to back her in, especially at a huge Each Way price.

Two tough cookies…

Both Kenin and Collins are tough competitors. They have a habit of rubbing people up the wrong way. Both have been known to offer up the flimsiest of handshakes in defeat. Collins has been seen fist-pumping double-faults from her opponents. Kenin has been warned for her father coaching from the stands. But that’s all okay. Ultimately, they aren’t here to make friends. They’re here to win. And I like that.

Regardless of the odds, make no mistake: these two players both believe they belong on the big stage and should be competing for the Miami Open trophy. That mental edge and self-belief is huge. Just look at Andreescu last week. She believed.

We’ll likely be adding a couple more Outright Winner picks as the draw unfolds. The first few days are quite quiet in terms of the big names being in action, with the seeds (including final seed No.32 Kenin, and No.25 Collins) all having a Bye through to the 2nd Round. But we should get on these two today in order to grab the very best prices.

Today’s Ones to Watch picks are:

WTA Miami – Miami Open

Outright Winner:

BET: Sofia Kenin @ 100/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 100/1 (101.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

BET: Danielle Collins @ 150/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 150/1 (151.00) Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places

Play starts at 3.30pm. I’ll be back tomorrow with more from Miami, including a look at the men’s Outright Winner market.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch