14/1 for another surprise in Rotterdam...

Friday 5th March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

• Chardy v Rublev…
• Andujar v Cerundolo…
• 5 tournaments next week…

We had another heartbreaker on Wednesday, with Ons Jabeur narrowly beaten 6-4, 4-6, 7-5 in Doha by a surprisingly in-form Karolina Pliskova.

Observations from this week on the tours…

• The close matches have continued. In Lyon, Camila Giorgi saved two match points in the last round, eventually winning 7-6 in the third

• Two teenagers named Clara are doing well in Lyon, both through to the quarter finals today. Look out for these two moving forward: Clara Burel, 19 (France). And the youngster we mentioned earlier in the week, Clara Tauson, 18 (Denmark)

• In Rotterdam, we targeted the top half of the draw with 28/1 Ones to Watch pick Felix Auger-Aliassime. It wasn’t to be for Felix. But the two biggest names from that side of the draw both fell at the first hurdle, too. The tournament favourite Daniil Medvedev was beaten 2-0 by 7/1 match outsider Dusan Lajovic. And another Top 10 name, Alexander Zverev, was also toppled in straight sets – with Alexander Bublik a 4/1 matchday underdog

We might not be done with the upsets in Rotterdam…

Chardy v Rublev…

Jeremy Chardy v Andrey Rublev has a bit of underdog potential in my opinion. Rublev has been on fire for basically the last twelve months – with lockdown in the middle, of course. But he didn’t exactly make mincemeat of a rusty Andy Murray in the last round (7-5, 6-2). And as noted before, the hard-working Russian sometimes gets a little tight at pressure moments in matches.

Chardy has been clutch on pressure points recently, saving match points already this week. After coming through qualifying with a brace of 2-1 victories, in the main draw, he’s won four sets in a row on a tiebreak, 7-6.

Rublev is aiming to improve all the time. But it’s worth noting that he’s reached this quarter final stage on each of his last two visits to Rotterdam, and failed to reach the semis.

The Frenchman is 6/1 for the win. Rublev won’t surrender much though. As is often the case in situations like this, I want the biggest price I can get for the upset. And 14/1 for Chardy to win 2-1 in the Set Betting looks large to me.

I also want to cover a Tiebreak in the Match, at 7/4 (2.75). With serving at the forefront, and the potential for things to get edgy, we could well see a 7-6 set or two this afternoon.

Play is due to start around 2pm, depending on how long the first match on court goes on for (12 noon start).

Andujar v Cerundolo…

In Argentina, Francisco Cerundolo is looking to emulate his younger brother’s exploits from last week, and claim a maiden ATP Tour title…

Teenager Juan Manuel Cerundolo won ATP Cordoba as a qualifier, triumphing in front of the home crowd as a 100/1+ tournament outsider.

The 22-year-old Francisco has come through qualifying at ATP Buenos Aires this week. Once again there’s a modest crowd allowed into the venue – and the Argentineans can still make a fair bit of noise to cheer on their home player.

Pablo Andujar has been around a long time and is a class clay-court player. Injuries have always been his problem though. The 35-year-old had medical attention in the last round.

Cerundolo hasn’t been wiping anyone out on the scoreboard – three of his five matches this week have gone to three sets. But he keeps digging in and finding a way to win. I can see the improving Argentine youngster finishing the stronger here, and that makes the 2-1 Set Betting option at 7/2+ (4.5+) more appealing to me than Evens (2.0) for the Match Winner.

Ones to Watch

ATP Rotterdam – ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament

Jeremy Chardy v Andrey Rublev
2pm

• Set Betting – Chardy to win 2-1 is 14/1 with William Hill, 12/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, 11/1 Bet365, Sportingbet, Bwin 

• Tiebreak in the Match – Yes is 7/4 (2.75) with Skybet, Bet365 (Over 0.5 Tiebreaks in the Match), 13/8 (2.63) Betway, 6/4 (2.5) Boylesports

ATP Buenos Aires – Argentina Open

Pablo Andujar v Francisco Cerundolo
6pm

• Set Betting – Cerundolo to win 2-1 is 19/5 (4.8) with Coral, Ladbrokes, 15/4 (4.75) William Hill, 18/5 (4.6) Sportingbet, Bwin, 7/2 (4.5) in general

There are five tournaments for us next week. I’ll be in touch over the weekend – most likely Sunday evening – with my first Outright Winner previews.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch