Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021

A strange situation in the Doha semis...

Friday 12th March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Semi Finals…
  • Bautista-Agut v Rublev…
  • Cocciaretto v Bouchard…

Don’t get me started on all the close calls we’ve had lately…

Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve endured a stack of narrow three-set matches that have seen our Ones to Watch picks edged out.

This week alone, both Gianluca Mager in Santiago and Jessica Pegula in Dubai lost from winning positions, with multiple match points each.

I always say these things even out over time. I look forward to cheering on a match-point turnover that goes our way.

As for this week’s Outright Winner selections, we’ve got one player standing. Roberto Bautista-Agut is through to the ATP Doha semi finals, after an impressive 2-1 win over top seed Dominic Thiem last night.

Backed at top prices of 20/1 and 16/1 on Sunday night, the Spaniard is now 3/1 for the title. He’s got another tough, high quality opponent today though. And this semi final v Andrey Rublev is a curious one…

A strange situation in the Doha semis…

Rublev has reached the semis without having to hit a single ball.

In the 1st round, the 3rd seed had a Bye. In the 2nd round, his opponent withdrew injured before the match. And incredibly, the same thing happened in the quarter finals. Apparently, that’s the first time that sequence of events has ever happened on the ATP Tour.

So here we are, with the Russian potentially able to lift the Doha title by only having to win two matches, the semi and the final.

The argument that Rublev will be the fresher player today is an obvious one (although he has been playing in the Doubles). The 23-year-old is also reigning champion here in Doha. And Andrey is at a new career high of No.8 in the world, having won the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam last week. The head-to-head is 3-2 to the Russian.

In the case for our man Bautista-Agut, he won this tournament in 2019 – and has been playing very well this week. The world No.13 certainly has a chance this afternoon.

The bookies have Rublev as the 4/9 (1.44) match favourite, with Bautista-Agut at 7/4 (2.75). The match is live on Amazon Prime Video from 3pm, UK time.

Italian the value in Mexico…

I’ve got a straight-up match pick for tonight’s WTA Zapopan semi finals in Mexico.

Elisabetta Cocciaretto has been priced up as the slight underdog to beat Eugenie Bouchard. I’m not so sure about that. The Italian has been in menacing form in the past couple of rounds, finishing strongly with a 6-0 set yesterday…

Cocciaretto is a streaky player, and when she gets on a roll, she really brings the fire. The 20-year-old knocked out top seed Nadia Podoroska, and overall has beaten a higher level of opponent to reach this stage of the tournament.

Bouchard knocked out our pick Kaja Juvan earlier in the week. But I watched that match, and I can tell you that while Bouchard was consistent, there was nothing special going on. Juvan had a very bad day at the office, with her serve the biggest culprit (seven double faults, and just 32% of 2nd serve points won).

The Canadian’s next win was against teenager Caty McNally, who had had a long match the day before.

At Evens and better, the Italian is my pick for this match. Play starts from 1am, UK time, live on Amazon Prime Video. Amazon shows replays too, in case you want to watch it at a more suitable hour.

Ones to Watch

WTA Zapopan (Guadalajara)

Match Winner

  • Elisabetta Cocciaretto to beat Eugenie Bouchard is 11/10 (2.1) with Bet365, William Hill, BetVictor, 21/20 (2.05) Betway, NetBet, 10Bet, Evens (2.0) Boylesports

I’ll be in touch again on Sunday evening, with our first look at the Outright Winner opportunities for next week’s tournaments.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch