Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021

ATP Miami Preview - including 33/1 and 200/1 picks...

Tuesday 23rd March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Miami Open…
  • Outright Winner picks…
  • Ones to Watch at 200/1…

Miami men’s – Outright Winner preview…

As with the Grand Slams, tennis’ big boys have had a stranglehold on the Masters 1000 events for years.

This week’s Miami Open is no exception. Ten of the last 15 Miami titles have gone to Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer.

But things are different this year. For the first since Paris 2004, a Masters event will take place without any of Djokovic, Federer, or Rafael Nadal in the field.

That has to add some juiciness to our approach to the men’s Miami Open 2021 tournament. Along with these recent Outright Winner prices from here in Florida:

  • 2019 – John Isner runner-up @ 40/1
  • 2018 – John Isner won @ 80/1
  • 2018 – Alexander Zverev runner-up @ 25/1
  • 2016 – Kei Nishikori runner-up @ 25/1

As with yesterday’s Miami women’s preview, I’m looking to latch onto a big-price player to make an outsider run…

The bookies are no mugs, though. They’re going to have priced up in the knowledge that Djokovic, Federer & Nadal aren’t playing. But no-one knows who’s going to win…

Former Miami champion Andy Murray has also pulled out. And reigning US Open champ Dominic Thiem has decided to give Miami a miss, too.

Top half: Ones to Watch at 33/1 and 200/1…

In the top half of the draw, Daniil Medvedev is the tournament favourite at 5/2 (3.5). Without the traditional household names here, it’s all on the new world no.2 to deliver. He’s got the mental strength and consistent game to do so. But I’m not going to be backing a 5/2 favourite here.

Felix Auger-Aliassime is on the radar at 50/1+. A regular name in Ones to Watch, the youngster made the Miami semi final in 2019, the last time the tournament was held, and the first time it was played at the new Hard Rock Stadium venue.

Jannik Sinner at 33/1 feels like the real deal and ready to claim a big trophy. Another Ones to Watch in 2021 repeater, Sinner looks a good price compared to the like of Alexander Zverev at 15/2 (8.5), and fellow Next Gen players Stefanos Tsitsipas (9/1) and Rublev (4/1). When the first Masters or Major title comes, we won’t see 33/1 again.

Nikoloz Basilashvili at 200/1 and 150/1. Unlike Aslan Karatsev (see below), there’s been no massive drop-off in Basilashvili’s price, despite a big win last time out. The Georgian was a 250/1 trophy winner at ATP Doha at the start of the month. He’s a classic streaky player, and when he hits a hot run, Basilashvili is one to keep onside – especially at giant odds like these.

Other men worth talking about in this top half of the draw include:

David Goffin 50/1 – won an ATP 250 title last month, former Miami Open semi-finalist (2016).

Grigor Dimitrov 50/1 – also shown glimpses of his best recently.

Taylor Fritz is as big as 250/1 and 200 with some firms. He’s never been past the 2nd round in Miami, but the 23-year-old American has been playing well recently, reaching the semis in Doha, and has the serve to win himself plenty of points on these hard courts.

Former champ and 2019 finalist John Isner is 50/1 – 90/1, but I feel like he’ll have to turn back the clock to do anything here. Big John is now 35 years of age, and has been struggling to win back-to-back matches since last autumn. He’s always played his best tennis in the States, though.

Bottom half: Ones to Watch at 28/1 and 200/1…

Continuing the Russian theme, with Medvedev as the tournament favourite, Andrey Rublev is the big one in the bottom half of the Miami draw, and just 4/1 for the trophy. He’s a relentless competitor, making the quarter finals or better in eight of his last 10 hard-court tournaments. That 4/1 price doesn’t do anything for me though, especially considering Medvedev would be the favourite in an all-Russian final, owing a dominant 5-0 head-to-head over his younger compatriot.

Aslan Karatsev is the man of the moment. A 1,000/1+ surprise package at the Australian Open, where he made the semi finals on his main-draw debut. The 27-year-old Russian then went all the way at Dubai last week, winning a maiden ATP title, at 33/1 (and beating our 33/1 pick Dan Evans, 2-1 in the 1st round). This time, Karatsev is half the odds, at 16/1, despite this being a bigger tournament. (Evans is 66/1 in general, and could meet Medvedev in the 4th round.)

Next Gen star Stefanos Tsitsipas is 9/1 at best, and 7/1 in general. I want bigger. He’s made Masters 1000 finals before, but back then the prices were different – 80/1 when runner-up at Toronto 2018, for example. I’d rather try and find the next young gun to break through…

Sebastian Korda could make a run at 200/1+ here. The 20-year-old American is up to a high of no.87 in the world, and it’s all upside for him at the moment. Seb has got a great head on his shoulders, and possibly, the world at his feet in terms of a future big-time tennis career.

Korda reached a debut ATP senior-level final here in Florida at the start of the year, finishing runner-up at Delray Beach. That form line marks him out as a dark horse for me. In a year or two from now, we might be talking about this guy in the same breath as Medvedev, Zverev & co. Let’s try and get him while the huge odds are still there.

While Korda is on our current Ones to Watch in 2021 list, Denis Shapovalov is a former OTW name – and still searching for a first truly big breakthrough moment…

The prodigiously talented Canadian left-hander has worked on his fitness, and is increasingly looking equipped to mix it with the big boys. Being gifted is one thing, the art of becoming a consistent performer is another. The 21-year-old is still very young though, and I can see him doing great things in his career. Ranked no.11 in the world, Shapovalov is up there with the best already, and looks here to stay, injury permitting.

He reached the semi finals here in Miami at the Hard Rock venue in 2019, and was also a semi-finalist on hard courts in Dubai last week. Denis needs to start making more finals. Why not now, at 28/1 and 25/1, in this open-looking Miami field. Shapo’ has reached two ATP finals so far, including an 80/1 runner-up finish at the Paris Masters in 2019.

Ones to Watch

ATP Miami Open

Outright Winner picks – Each Way

  • Jannik Sinner is 33/1 with Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Betfred, Boylesports
  • Nikoloz Basilashvili is 200/1 with Betfred, 150/1 Bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, William Hill, BetVictor, 888 Sport, Boylesports
  • Sebastian Korda is 250/1 with Bet365, 888 Sport, 200/1 Skybet, BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports
  • Denis Shapovalov is 28/1 with Skybet, 25/1 in general

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Play starts in the men’s 1st round from 2pm Wednesday, UK time.

I’ll be back throughout the next two weeks with plenty of updates and match picks for Miami.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch