Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021

Miami match picks - two 3/1 selections for today...

Wednesday 24th March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Miami Open…
  • Bernarda Pera v Sara Sorribes Tormo…
  • Ernesto Escobedo v Paolo Lorenzi…

Miami match picks – two 3/1 selections for today…

We’re on the lookout for value in all areas of the Miami Open betting. In the Outright Winner department, we’re looking to find a big-price outsider to make a run. And in the match markets, I’ve got our first two selections for you today…

Bernarda Pera v Sara Sorribes Tormo

Match scheduled 3pm+

These two met in Abu Dhabi in January, and played out one of the longest WTA matches you’ll ever see. A three-hour and 24-minute epic, with Sorribes Tormo eventually prevailing 5-7, 6-3, 6-4.

The Spaniard has kicked on since then, going on to reach the quarter finals that week in Abu Dhabi. Then claiming a maiden WTA title in Mexico last at the start of March, and following that up with another semi final.

Soribbes Tormo goes off as the 2/5 (1.4) favourite in today’s match. But Pera has the hard-court game and penetrative forehand to make things tough for many opponents, if only in bursts within matches (she’s been a thorn in Johanna Konta’s side, for example, winning two of their four meetings).

And the American has a habit of playing out long matches. Already this season, five of her eight matches have gone to a deciding set, including that three-hour+ whopper against this afternoon’s opponent.

In the Set Betting market, Sorribes Tormo to win 2-1 at 3/1+ is the price-pick for me.

Ernesto Escobedo v Paolo Lorenzi

Match scheduled 6pm+

These two both came through the Miami qualifying rounds with some impressive wins. But at the odds available, the Italian jumps out as the value in this match-up…

Lorenzi was solid in yesterday’s 6-4, 6-4 win in qualifying, in a match where he was priced as the 6/4 (2.5) underdog. He’s available at 3/1+ to win today, and I like that price.

Yes, Escobedo is the younger man, at 24. But if we’re pricing this up based purely on age, then that would be doing a disservice to the 39-year-old Lorenzi, who is a steady pro and has come through many tough, against-the-odds encounters in his career.

The Italian is also underrated on hard courts. To write him off as a clay-courter is risky – and incorrect. Yes, 495 of his 775 career wins have come on the clay. But 202 hard-courts wins don’t come easy. He knows how to look after his service games and keep the scoreboard close.

And what the stats don’t tell you is that Lorenzi is a tough man to have on the other side of the net. He can win ugly. He’ll grunt after every shot. He won’t give in. The value is with the underdog in this one.

Ones to Watch

WTA Miami Open

Set Betting:

  • Sara Sorribes Tormo to win 2-1 v Bernarda Pera is 10/3 (4.33) with Bet365, BetVictor, 16/5 (4.2) Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Coral, Sportingbet, Bwin, 3/1 (4.0) Skybet

ATP Miami Open

Match Winner:

  • Paolo Lorenzi to beat Ernesto Escobedo is 10/3 (4.33) with Bet365, BetVictor, 16/5 (4.2) Betway, NetBet, 10Bet

Miami matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video, and on selected bookies’ websites, including Bet365.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch