Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021

Miami match picks - and 500/1 if you can get it...

Thursday 25th March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Sevastova v Gauff…
  • Pironkova v Sabalenka…
  • One to Watch: Lorenzo Musetti…

Bernarda Pera must be sick of the sight of Sara Sorribes Tormo…

For the second time this season, those two played out an epic three-set battle – with Sorries Tormo just pipping her opponent to the post.

After a three-hour+ marathon in Abu Dhabi, yesterday’s encounter went the distance again, with the Spaniard saving two match points and coming from 1-5 down in the final set. Eventually prevailing 6-2, 2-6, 7-5 in two hours & 46 minutes.

  • There have now been 20 WTA matches this season where a player has saved match point and gone on to win. Sorribes Tormo has done it twice

Yesterday’s result landed odds of 3/1+ for our 2-1 Set Betting pick. I’ve got two more contenders in that market today…

Miami Open match picks…

I’ve spoken several times in the last few months about the ‘2-1 route’ in women’s tennis. There are only two ways to win a match, 2-0, or 2-1. And in the women’s game especially, we see plenty of topsy-turvy encounters with snaking scoreboards…

The Set Betting options are always going to come out at bigger odds than the straight-up Match Winner, and that pushes the door slightly ajar for us in the hunt for value – if we can pinpoint the right player in the close-looking matches.

Two that stand out for me today with three-set potential:

Anastasija Sevastova v Coco Gauff

Match scheduled 12.30am+

Real possibilities for a rollercoaster score-line here – double faults, match points, multiple breaks of serve, the lot…

A remarkable seven of Gauff’s last nine matches have ended up going all the way to three sets. The 17-year-old has all the talent, but is not yet fully consistent.

Sevastova has creativity and battling qualities, which makes her fun to watch. She beat Gauff 6-3, 5-7, 6-4 at the US Open last year. And although no-one seems to be talking about it, I could see another 2-1 upset coming along tonight. Three of the Latvian’s last four matches have gone to three sets. Sevastova has done well on North American hard courts before, with two quarter finals & a semi final at the US Open.

Gauff is the 1/2 (1.5) match favourite, and around 3/1 (4.0) to win 2-1. Everyone knows how good the American teenager is, and I feel she’s being a little overrated in the betting. Which is understandable considering the amount of casual money that must come in for her whenever she plays these days.

Sevastova is 7/4 (2.75) for the upset. If she pulls it off, I can really see it needing the full three sets – and with a fair bit of drama. As the underdog of the four options, Sevastova to win 2-1 at 5/1 appeals to me.

Tsvetana Pironkova v Aryna Sabalenka

Match scheduled 6pm+

Pironkova took out our 150/1 teenager Marta Kostyuk last night. The Bulgarian remained steadier and more accurate with her shots than the freewheeling 18-year-old, and on this occasion that tactic paid off. Pironkova edged it 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, in a match that saw each player break serve eight times…

Despite coming out on top in the end, Pironkova gave away more than twice as many break points as Kostyuk, 21 to 10. If she coughs up that many today, then Sabalenka will knock her off the court. The Belarusian loves nothing better than attacking a slow second serve or a short ball – in fact, she knows no other way to play.

The problem with Sabalenka though, like so many win-or-bust power-hitters in the sport, is keeping up the consistency levels. Aryna usually finds a way to win against lower-ranked opponents these days, but not without a few issues on the way. Having had a Bye in the 1st round as the no.7 seed, I could see this one panning out with Sabalenka shaking off a little rust, before eventually finishing the stronger. Odds of 3/1+ for the 2-1 win make the cut for me.

500/1 if you can get it…

I’m keen on following the big prices at Miami this year. If we could get a big run out of one of our 100/1+ selections, I’d be happy. And it could make for some fun and exciting evenings in front of the box, too…

A youngster to add to the book today is Ones to Watch in 2021 name, Lorenzo Musetti.

The Italian teenager has electrifying shot-making skills, and this season, the 19-year-old looks one to follow whenever the big prices are available. Pretty much every main-level tournament is new ground for him, and most of the established players have yet to face him – meaning the element of surprise is there…

Musetti has already beaten Grigor Dimitrov and Diego Schwartzman this month – both former Grand Slam semi-finalists, and past and current Top 10 players, respectively.

Nothing’s out of the question when an exciting youngster is having their breakthrough year. And this report (from of how the courts are playing in Miami this week suggest that players with clay-court nous, like Musetti, might be able to make hay here:

‘According to players on the ground, the court is high-bouncing, on the slow side, and the lively balls fluff up with each passing point. So far, players who can manufacture their own pace and spin have been well-served.’

If you have an account and can get it, Unibet and 32RedSport (the same sportsbook) have 500/1 on offer for Musetti. Elsewhere in the Outright Winner markets, Lorenzo is 200/1 and 125/1. I’d say anything 100/1 and better is worth taking for a long-shot selection here, putting us firmly on the side of speculation and potential.

  • You might also want to follow Musetti in the match-day markets. He’s 4/9 (1.44) in general to beat Michael Mmoh tonight. And in the 3rd Quarter Winner market, he’s 18/1 with Bet365 and Betway (eg. to reach the semi finals)

Ones to Watch

WTA Miami Open

Set Betting:

  • Anastasija Sevastova to win 2-1 v Coco Gauff is 5/1 (6.0) with Bet365, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Coral, NetBet, 10Bet, Sportingbet, Bwin
  • Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-1 v Tsvetana Pironkova is 17/5 (4.4) with Ladbrokes, Coral, 10/3 (4.33) Skybet, Sportingbet, Bwin, 16/5 (4.2) Betway, Boylesports, 3/1 (4.0) Bet365, BetVictor

ATP Miami Open

Outright Winner – Each Way:

  • Lorenzo Musetti is 500/1 with Unibet, 32RedSport, 200/1 Betfred, 125/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, 888 Sport, Betway, Boylesports, Skybet

Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.

Miami matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video, and on selected bookies’ websites, including Bet365. Play starts from 3pm.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch