Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021
Miami Open - 250/1 Korda into the quarter finals...
Wednesday 31st March 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
I said there’d be some tiebreaks yesterday. The three matches highlighted all featured a 7-6 set…
Roberto Bautista-Agut beat John Isner – 6-3, 4-6, 7-6
Alexander Bublik beat Taylor Fritz – 6-7, 6-3, 6-4
Hubert Hurkacz beat Milos Raonic – 4-6, 6-3, 7-6
Anticipating certain outcomes is one thing. Making a profit from them is another. In yesterday’s markets, the ‘Tiebreak in the Match’ option was odds-on, in all three examples, and that was enough to put me off.
I like to shoot for something bigger. Isner to win the 1st Set by the 7-6 score was my more ambitious selection.
In the Fritz-Bublik match, you could say I talked myself out of a winner by taking Bublik to win the 1st Set, and not the match. As the score-line above shows, he lost the opener, and then came back to win.
Overall, we’ve been doing well with our Miami match picks, with a couple of 2/1 and 3/1 winners last week, along with a 5/1 Set Betting payout.
Korda rises to the occasion…
I’m enjoying watching as much of the Miami Open as possible. That has meant some late nights. And as I always say, the sleep depravation never feels as bad when your player gets the victory…
Last night’s case in point was young Sebastian Korda. Our 20-year-old Ones to Watch pick continues to impress. This time reaching a first ATP Masters 1000 quarter final, and in doing so recording a first win over a Top 10 player, too.
Korda played some exceptional tennis. I lost count of how many times Greg Rusedski said ‘What a great shot’…
And Seb dug in brilliantly in the third set. After missing a match point and losing his serve at 5-4 up in the decider, he regrouped brilliantly and maturely, in a situation where many a player might have dropped their head and fallen away.
Final score: Korda beat Diego Schwartzman – 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.
It’s all about the prices…
Next up for the American youngster will be one of the toughest opponents in the game right now, the relentless Andrey Rublev. But no-one is ever unbeatable. And as the prices below show, we’ve got a huge slice of value on our side…
At the start of the tournament, our outsider pick Korda was 250/1 and 200/1. In stark comparison, Rublev was the 4/1 second favourite. That says it all.
Miami Open – Men’s Quarter Finals:
(Pre-tournament Outright Winner prices in brackets):
Daniil Medvedev (5/2) v Roberto Bautista-Agut (33/1)
Jannik Sinner (33/1) v Alexander Bublik (150/1)
Sebastian Korda (250/1) v Andrey Rublev (4/1)
Hubert Hurkacz (100/1) v Stefanos Tsitsipas (9/1)
We’re on two of those quarter-finalists at attractive Ones to Watch prices – and they’re the two youngest men left in the draw, too…
With 250/1 Korda now trading at 50/1. And Jannik Sinner in the book at 33/1, with the 19-year-old Italian now priced at just 7/1 to go all the way.
In the women’s event, we’ve got 25/1 Bianca Andreescu in the quarter finals. The 20-year-old Canadian is now 6/1 for the title.
All the Miami matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video, and on selected bookies’ websites, including Bet365.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson