Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021

Miami Open - 250/1 Korda into the quarter finals...

Wednesday 31st March 2021

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Miami Open…
  • Men’s Quarter Finals…
  • It’s all about the prices…

I said there’d be some tiebreaks yesterday. The three matches highlighted all featured a 7-6 set…

Roberto Bautista-Agut beat John Isner – 6-3, 4-6, 7-6

Alexander Bublik beat Taylor Fritz – 6-7, 6-3, 6-4

Hubert Hurkacz beat Milos Raonic – 4-6, 6-3, 7-6

Anticipating certain outcomes is one thing. Making a profit from them is another. In yesterday’s markets, the ‘Tiebreak in the Match’ option was odds-on, in all three examples, and that was enough to put me off.

I like to shoot for something bigger. Isner to win the 1st Set by the 7-6 score was my more ambitious selection.

In the Fritz-Bublik match, you could say I talked myself out of a winner by taking Bublik to win the 1st Set, and not the match. As the score-line above shows, he lost the opener, and then came back to win.

Overall, we’ve been doing well with our Miami match picks, with a couple of 2/1 and 3/1 winners last week, along with a 5/1 Set Betting payout.

Korda rises to the occasion…

I’m enjoying watching as much of the Miami Open as possible. That has meant some late nights. And as I always say, the sleep depravation never feels as bad when your player gets the victory…

Last night’s case in point was young Sebastian Korda. Our 20-year-old Ones to Watch pick continues to impress. This time reaching a first ATP Masters 1000 quarter final, and in doing so recording a first win over a Top 10 player, too.

Korda played some exceptional tennis. I lost count of how many times Greg Rusedski said ‘What a great shot’

And Seb dug in brilliantly in the third set. After missing a match point and losing his serve at 5-4 up in the decider, he regrouped brilliantly and maturely, in a situation where many a player might have dropped their head and fallen away.

Final score: Korda beat Diego Schwartzman – 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.

It’s all about the prices…

Next up for the American youngster will be one of the toughest opponents in the game right now, the relentless Andrey Rublev. But no-one is ever unbeatable. And as the prices below show, we’ve got a huge slice of value on our side…

At the start of the tournament, our outsider pick Korda was 250/1 and 200/1. In stark comparison, Rublev was the 4/1 second favourite. That says it all.

Miami Open – Men’s Quarter Finals:

(Pre-tournament Outright Winner prices in brackets):

Daniil Medvedev (5/2) v Roberto Bautista-Agut (33/1)

Jannik Sinner (33/1) v Alexander Bublik (150/1)

Sebastian Korda (250/1) v Andrey Rublev (4/1)

Hubert Hurkacz (100/1) v Stefanos Tsitsipas (9/1)

We’re on two of those quarter-finalists at attractive Ones to Watch prices – and they’re the two youngest men left in the draw, too…

With 250/1 Korda now trading at 50/1. And Jannik Sinner in the book at 33/1, with the 19-year-old Italian now priced at just 7/1 to go all the way.

In the women’s event, we’ve got 25/1 Bianca Andreescu in the quarter finals. The 20-year-old Canadian is now 6/1 for the title.

  • Sinner plays Bublik this evening (match scheduled 8pm+). The bookies have our man priced as the favourite to progress to the semi finals
  • Andreescu plays Sara Sorribes Tormo tonight (midnight+), with our player priced as the match favourite there, too
  • Korda v Rublev will be played on Thursday, with our young gun the underdog

All the Miami matches are being shown live on Amazon Prime Video, and on selected bookies’ websites, including Bet365.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch