Tennis Betting Advice - March 2021
Sunday Night Club – with a 40/1 shot in Marseille…
Sunday 7th March 2021
In your Ones to Watch email today:
I feel like we’ve been on the edge of something good lately. We ended last week with yet more match-point drama…
Friday’s two featured matches turned a profit, but it could’ve been more. In Rotterdam, Jeremy Chardy and Andrey Rublev played out not one but two Tiebreaks. And Chardy was not far off landing the big 14/1 underdog pick for the 2-1 Set Betting score. Rublev edged it 7-6, 6-7, 6-4 – and went on to win the tournament.
We got the 2-1 score over the line later on Friday evening, in Buenos Aires. With Francisco Cerundolo following the script and finishing strong against Pablo Andujar, 1-6, 6-3, 6-2.
It was good to land a modest win on one of the Cerundolo brothers. After winning a stack of matches each on the lower-tier circuit, the young Argentinean pair announced their main-tour ATP breakthrough in the first two clay-court tournaments of the season, both held in their homeland…
First, 19-year-old Juan Manual Cerundolo won ATP Cordoba as a 100/1 qualifier. Then 22-year-old brother Francisco reached the ATP Buenos Aires final, at 66/1, also after coming through qualifying.
Elsewhere, in Lyon, another youngster we looked at last week made their first Senior final…
The exciting 18-year-old Clare Tauson came through qualifying, then knocked out the No.1 seed in the 1st round of the main draw, and went all the way to lift a maiden WTA title. The Danish teenager won a total of seven matches in Lyon last week – without dropping a single set. Tauson is most definitely one to watch from now on.
Sunday Night Club…
Onto our Sunday Night Club now, with a first foray into next week’s tournaments and Outright Winner markets….
There are five events on the schedule:
ATP 250 – Marseille - indoor hard
ATP 250 – Santiago – clay
ATP 250 – Doha – hard
WTA 250 – Zapopan – hard
WTA 1000 – Dubai – hard
Look for Jabeur in Dubai…
WTA Dubai is the first ‘Masters’ 1000 event of the year. This the highest grade of event, behind the Grand Slams…
This one started today, and as I write to you this evening, the day’s final match is still in play – so there are no Outright Winner prices to refer to. Monday’s action starts from 6am onwards, so the Outrights will be out of bounds for the day then, too.
We’ll get involved in Dubai when we can get to the markets. But I can tell you now that the player I’m naming is Ons Jabeur. The Tunisian was a 20/1 pick in Doha last week. If we can get around that price again or better, I’ll be happy. Jabeur is already through to the 2nd round, having won her 1st round match earlier today.
Continuing our Ones to Watch plan of attack – going after appealing outsiders at attractive Each Way prices. Here are my initial price picks for this week’s other tournaments, before a ball is hit…
14/1 Juvan in Mexico…
I like to look at a tournament draw-sheet before I know what the odds are. The names I circled for WTA Zapopan in Guadalajara, Mexico were Leylah Fernandez, Marie Bouzkova, Nadia Podoroska, and Kaja Juvan…
The first three all appeared in our pre-season Ones to Watch in 2021 report. You won’t get any big prices for them this week. Podoroska is top seed, and 7/1. Teenager Fernandez is just 5/1 with Bet365, and Bouzkova is an 11/2 (6.5) favourite.
Clearly, I like all three players. But not at those prices. To make my point, last time we backed Bouzkova, she was 33/1 at the Phillip Island Trophy in February (runner-up). Marie was runner-up at this venue when the Zapopan tournament was held in 2019 as a lower-tier WTA event.
The 20-year-old Juvan is the one I like more this time, seeing as odds of 14/1 are available in the early prices – making Kaja by far the biggest price of the four young women on my shortlist. The Slovenian youngster is slowly but surely on the up, currently at a career high of No.91 in the world…
Juvan has played 10 matches so far in 2021, and the only three defeats all came against high-calibre opponents: French Open champ Iga Swiatek, Australian Open finalist Jen Brady, and teenage star Coco Gauff. Barring the potential-filled Fernandez (who looks a very short price), there’s no-one in that ilk in this week’s Mexican field.
ATP picks – at 20/1, 28/1, and 40/1…
At ATP Doha the story is all about the return of Roger Federer. The great man is making his first appearance on tour for over a year. He last played at Doha in 2012 (semi final). Odds of 4/1 might do it for some people, but not for me. The 39-year-old is simply too short for my tastes, and especially in the circumstances.
Two men that I like at more enticing prices are Roberto Bautista-Agut at 20/1, and Dan Evans at 28/1.
Bautista-Agut often starts the season well, and it’s been the case again in 2021, with the consistent Spaniard reaching the ATP Montpellier final last month. His last two titles have come in this part of the world; Bautista-Agut won here in Doha in 2019, and in Dubai in 2018.
Evans has finally got the monkey off his back by winning a first ATP title, and the 30-year-old Brit will be chomping at the bit to test himself against Federer again. Dan has made the semi finals or better in each of his last three ATP tournaments, feats that have helped him crack the world’s Top 30.
The ATP Marseille field has plenty of names that could go well in these indoor hard-court conditions. Single-figure quotes are of little interest to me, though. The likes of Ugo Humbert, and Ones to Watch in 2021 name Jannik Sinner, are both in that category, priced around 7/1 each. With the favourites Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas closer to 3/1.
Instead, with surprises looking never far away on the tour right now, I want to take the chance to get behind another OTW 2021 listed player, at a big price. With the 21-year-old Emil Ruusuvuori flagged up in that report as one to follow in particular on indoor hard courts. The Finnish rising star finished last season with an ATP semi final indoors, and he has the big serve and groundstrokes to go one better at an event like this soon. Odds of 40/1 appeal this week.
I’m also backing Ruusuvuori to win his 1st round match on Monday, at odds of 8/11 (1.73) to beat Yoshihito Nishioka.
Ones to Watch
Outright Winner picks – Each Way:
WTA Zapopan (Guadalajara)
ATP Doha (Qatar ExxonMobil Open)
ATP Marseille (Open 13 Provence)
Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places.
Match Winner:
As well as looking out for Ons Jabeur in Dubai, I also want to make sure we don’t miss any tasty Outright Winner prices in the clay-court tournament in Chile, ATP Santiago. That will be on my list on Monday and Tuesday, so I’ll keep you posted.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson