Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022

Indian Wells - back the underdog in the match of the day...

Thursday 17th March 2022

We had five men in the Round of 16 at Indian Wells. After last night’s action, we have two through to the quarter finals…

Reilly Opelka was edged out in two tiebreak sets by tournament favourite, Rafael Nadal, 7-6, 7-6.

John Isner was beaten 6-3, 7-6, by Grigor Dimitrov – the man who took Novak Djokovic’s place in the draw.

Jannik Sinner withdrew through illness. Nick Kyrgios moves into the quarters on a Walkover.

The two success stories potentially brewing for us:

Cameron Norrie continued his underdog run as he bids to defend his ATP Indian Wells title. He was triumphant here at 66/1 last year. We took similar odds last week. Cam is now 16/1.

In the quarter finals, Norrie is priced as an 11/5 (3.2) outsider to beat Ones to Watch in 2022 youngster, Carlos Alcaraz. (From 28/1 on day one, the prodigious Spanish teenager is now just 4/1 to lift a maiden Masters 1000 trophy.)

For the second day running, Taylor Fritz showed his grit and came through in a final-set tiebreaker. Beating a resurgent Alex De Minaur, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6.

From odds of 100/1, 70/1 & 66/1 when we got the American in the book last week, Taylor is now 11/1 in the Outright Winner market.

Our man is priced as a favourite to keep the run going and reach the semi finals for the second year in a row, with the bookies making Fritz 4/7 (1.57) to beat Miomir Kecmanovic.

“I want it so bad…”

Fritz is a California native. The 24-year-old makes no secret about his desire to do well at his ‘home’ event. Taylor’s post-match comments from yesterday show he’s determined to succeed here…

“It’s so special to be back in the quarterfinals after such a good run last year. I want it so bad … I’ve said it a million times: this is like my home tournament so having a good week there’s really no place I’d rather do it than here … I love playing here so much.”

We’ve also got a big-odds outsider in the women’s quarter finals…

Ahead of the 3rd round, we backed Veronika Kudermetova at odds of 50/1, 40/1 & 33/1. The 24-year-old scored an underdog victory in the Round of 16, taking out Marketa Vondrousova. Our pick will need to defeat another favourite this evening, as she faces reigning WTA Indian Wells champion Paula Badosa (7.30pm, UK time).

In this morning’s Outright Winner betting, the bookmakers have Kudermetova as the outsider of the six women left in the event, trading at 22/1.

In the matchday market, Veronika is 7/4 (2.75) to overcome fellow 24-year-old Badosa. It should be a good contest. Expect some fierce hitting from both women. They’ve met three times in the past, and Kudermetova has won all three.

As the reigning champ and higher-ranked player, world no.7 Badosa is the understandable favourite going into today’s match. But our underdog has a very real chance. And here at Ones to Watch, that’s just the kind of position we like to be in…

Rafa v Nick…

Away from our tournament picks, there’s no doubting what the box-office match of the day is at Indian Wells…

Rafael Nadal v Nick Kyrgios could be a cracker.

There’s plenty of ‘previous’ between these two. But behind the Aussie’s theatrics, there’s also a genuine respect for Rafa’s greatness. That is by no means is to suggest that Kyrgios will roll over here, though. Far from it. Indeed, Nick is one of the few younger-generation names that speaks openly about his true belief that he can beat the Big Three. He’s not all talk, either. On hard courts, Kyrgios’ head-to-head v Nadal is level at 2-2.

The Spanish superstar is on an 18-match winning streak in 2022. But the 35-year-old has shown some minor signs of slowing down here at Indian Wells – despite still finding a way to win each time, thus far. Nadal came from 2-5 down in the final set against one of the American youngsters that we’ve been following, Sebastian Korda.

After beating our man Opelka yesterday, Rafa said that he’s been experiencing some pain in his left foot. His current remarkable 18-match comeback run came after foot surgery.

If there’s a chance that Nadal won’t be at full strength this evening, then we have to back an in-form Nick Kyrgios to show no mercy. The 26-year-old Australian certainly looks in the mood right now. Odds of 2/1+ for the upset will do for me.


Ones to Watch picks:

ATP Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open

Match Winner:

  • Nick Kyrgios to beat Rafael Nadal @ 9/4 (3.25) Boylesports, 11/5 (3.2) BetVictor, 2/1 (3.0) Skybet, Bet365


Nadal v Kyrgios is scheduled for 10pm, UK time.

All of the Indian Wells matches are being shown on Amazon Prime Video.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch