Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022

"I wouldn't have put a dime on him today..."

Monday 21st March 2022

In our Indian Wells men’s preview, we declared that we were ‘Taking on Rafa at 100/1.’ And that’s exactly what we did…

Taylor Fritz overcame the odds to win last night, lifting the biggest trophy of his career.

Less than a year after having knee surgery, the 24-year-old enjoyed emotional celebrations in front of his home Californian crowd…

The American climbs from no.20 to a new career high of no.13 in the world rankings. Beating the likes of Andrey Rublev in the semis, and then Rafael Nadal in the final of this ATP Masters 1000 event, Fritz showed he belongs on the big stage.

It’s a huge step on the journey for Fritz. As a teenager, he featured in our first ever annual Ones to Watch report, ahead of the 2017 season:

Ones to Watch report 2017 - Taylor Fritz

Against all odds…

On Sunday morning, it almost looked like injury was going to put pay to Taylor’s chances at Indian Wells…

At the end of Saturday’s impressive semi-final victory over world no.7 Rublev, Fritz had called for the trainer. He’d felt a sharp pain in his right ankle.

On the day of the final, he cut short his first practice session, yelling out in pain. As he made his way gingerly off court after that brief warm-up, it appeared a very real possibility that the American was going to have to pull out of the final. Indeed, Fritz said some members of his team had strongly advised him to forfeit the match.

A brave and smart move it turned out to be, then – and “incredibly stubborn,” as Taylor put it – to push on and play the final.

Fritz was particularly impressive on the important points, which is a real sign that he’s mentally tough enough to compete at the top table. He came through to beat 21-time Grand Slam champion Nadal, 6-3, 7-6.

On a day when all the pre-match talk had been about the American’s fitness, it was actually Rafa who seemed to be struggling more during the final. The Spaniard’s remarkable 20-match winning streak finally came to an end. And with it, in Fritz, a new name on the ATP Indian Wells BNP Paribas Open trophy.

The look on his face after taking match point says it all…

Taylor Fritz photo

Happy days…

In terms of the Outright Winner betting, Taylor Fritz winning Indian Wells goes down as one of our all-time Ones to Watch greatest hits.

After a run of big-price Each Way runner-up finalists for us this season – Danielle Collins (66/1, 50/1), Cameron Norrie (33/1), Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (30/1, 28/1)…

It felt like we were closing in on a big one. Fritz was a top-price 100/1 with Betfred, and 66/1+ elsewhere.

So far, I’ve heard from Ones to Watch member Charlie P, who had 75/1. Excellent stuff.

Were you on? What price did you get?

Charlie P - Ones to Watch testimonial

“I wouldn’t have put a dime on him today…”

For me, last night was a great reminder of why I love this sport. Anything can happen. Taylor Fritz was the rank outsider. And ahead of the final, the rumour mill was in full spin.

Referring to having seen Fritz pull up in pain in the practice session, Martina Navratilova said that with that injury doubt in mind, she “wouldn’t have put a dime on him.” The rest is history…

Next stop, Miami…

The March fun continues this week, with another big, 1000-grade event. The women’s Miami Open starts on Tuesday afternoon, followed by the men on Wednesday.

I’ll be touch with my first tournament preview and picks by tomorrow lunchtime.

As with Indian Wells, Miami has an exciting recent history for big-odds finalists and champions…


ATP Miami – Hubert Hurkacz champion – 100/1
ATP Miami – Jannik Sinner runner-up – 33/1
WTA Miami – Bianca Andreescu runner-up – 25/1


Didn’t play – coronavirus


ATP Miami – John Isner runner-up – 40/1
WTA Miami – Ashleigh Barty champion – 28/1


ATP Miami – John Isner champion – 80/1
ATP Miami – Alexander Zverev runner-up – 25/1
WTA Miami – Sloane Stephens champion – 66/1
WTA Miami – Jelena Ostapenko runner-up – 50/1


ATP Miami – Kei Nishikori runner-up – 25/1
WTA Miami – Svetlana Kuznetsova runner-up – 100/1

See you tomorrow.

My email address again, if you’d like to get in touch:

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch