Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022
WTA Miami - Ones to Watch at 50/1 and 80/1...
Tuesday 22nd March 2022
The WTA Miami Open starts this afternoon. In recent years, this event has seen plenty of women reach the final at attractive odds. Last season, we were on the runner-up…
2021:
WTA Miami – Bianca Andreescu runner-up – 25/1
2020:
Didn’t play – coronavirus
2019:
WTA Miami – Ashleigh Barty champion – 28/1
2018:
WTA Miami – Sloane Stephens champion – 66/1
WTA Miami – Jelena Ostapenko runner-up – 50/1
2016:
WTA Miami – Svetlana Kuznetsova runner-up – 100/1
Miami Open women’s – Ones to Watch…
Here are my selections for today…
Top half of the draw:
Big names in the top section include no.1 seed Aryna Sabalenka (12/1 – 20/1), 15th seed Elina Svitolina (50/1 – 66/1), and 6th seed Karolina Pliskova (28/1 – 33/1) – all players that I’m on record as placing in the unreliable/ ‘hard to trust in’ category. Indeed, those three established names didn’t win a single match between them at Indian Wells last time out. That said, it would be remiss of me to not mention that the Miami day-one Outright Winner odds for those three women are actually a bit bigger than I was expecting to see. As ever with the women’s game, it’s a case of who will burst into form – and it can come at any time…
DANIELLE COLLINS is a top-price 33/1 with a couple of firms. She withdrew injured in Dubai last month, and then pulled out of Indian Wells. The American has gone well coming in cold before though – not least at the start of this year: Danielle made the final in her very first tournament appearance of 2022, which just so happened to be the Australian Open. Collins made the semi finals here at the Miami Open back in 2018. Hard courts are the place to best follow her. And after showing what she can do Down Under, a big run in the USA is well within the world no.11’s capabilities – fitness permitting, of course.
Once again, ANETT KONTAVEIT is sure to have plenty of backers. And this time, I’m one of them…
The Estonian was 9/1 second-favourite at Indian Wells, falling in the 3rd round in an epic three-set tussle against an inspired Marketa Vondrousova. This week, Kontaveit is a bit bigger in the betting, a top-price 14/1 for the Miami Open (Betfred, Skybet, Ladbrokes & Coral), and 12/1 in general.
Long-time readers will know I’m a big fan of Anett; she’s a very likable character, and a great ball-striker. You may also remember that I have had a couple of doubts about her in previous years – namely regarding mental strength, and consistency. She’s improved on both counts. Kontaveit has become a winning machine in recent months – reaching a remarkable five finals in her last eight tournaments (all on hard courts). She is still searching for a first title at WTA 1000 or Grand Slam level. This week presents another chance to put that right…
I get the feeling that, the way Kontaveit has been playing for some time now, a really big piece of silverware could be on the way soon. She made the semi finals in Miami in 2019, only beaten by the champ Ash Barty, who isn’t here this week.
Bottom half of the draw:
Talking of form players on the WTA Tour, JELENA OSTAPENKO is another name to look out for. And at standout odds of 40/1 and 33/1, the 2018 Miami Open runner-up is one to watch this week…
The Latvian has a habit of striking it big. Again, long-time followers will have memories of Ostapenko’s 100/1 win at the French Open in 2017. Her 2018 Miami run saw Jelena start the tournament at 50/1. And more recently, the 24-year-old won the WTA 500 title in Dubai as a 40/1 shot.
That Dubai streak was bookended by semi finals in both St Petersburg and Doha; on both occasions, Kontaveit was the only woman able to stop her. Ostapenko is an outsider with great credentials here. You never quite know what she’s going to do, but big Each Way prices make following her worth the risk.
Looking back at my WTA Indian Wells picks, one name that I believe warrants following again here in Florida is our Ones to Watch in 2022 teenager, CLARA TAUSON (80/1, 60/1, 50/1)…
The 19-year-old Dane is definitely on my radar for a player that could suddenly ignite and put together a breakthrough run at a big tournament. At Indian Wells, Tauson ran into eventual champion and new world no.2, Iga Swiatek, in the 3rd round. Clara gave a very good account of herself that day, winning the opening set in what was a high-quality match. As with so many youngsters and rising stars in recent years, we should continue to back Tauson while the odds are in our favour. 50/1 certainly fits the bill in that department.
Clara could get a second go at Swiatek here, with a potential 4th-round clash on the cards. The Polish star was a deserved winner in the Indian Wells final at the weekend, and has now won two out of two WTA 1000 titles this year – both times managing to frank single-figure favouritism in the betting (13/2 and 8/1). Iga is 9/2 (5.5) in general here and 5/1 (6.0) at best. But the March ‘sunshine double’ of winning Indian Wells & Miami back-to-back is notoriously hard to do. Teenager Tauson could be the one to take advantage of any drop-off from the new world no.2.
Last but not least, MARKETA VONDROUSOVA at 50/1 also fits the bill as an outsider with vast potential…
I’m losing count of how many times I’ve called the talented left-hander ‘enigmatic’ – but it’s true. Watch Vondrousova play and you’ll likely witness a mixture of breath-taking shots from the young Czech – mixing sublime drop-shots with swinging forehands and easy power. Yet simultaneously, a relaxed on-court demeanour that’s either a world-class poker face, or a strange blend of nerves and devil-may-care attitude. Either way, it all adds up to make the 2019 teenage French Open finalist a One to Watch regular, frequently threatening a big run at chunky, outsider prices. Indeed, Vondrousova was a 40/1 runner-up for us when making her maiden Grand Slam final at Roland Garros.
Last week, the current world no.33 took out Kontaveit at Indian Wells. Marketa has made the quarter finals here in Miami before (2019). With age very much on her side, the 22-year-old has a chance to go deep again this time. Paula Badosa (16/1 – 14/1) is a big name that will get most of the attention in this section of the draw. But at the prices, the Czech outsider is my one to follow. Odds of 50/1 will do nicely.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
WTA Miami – Miami Open presented by Itau
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Play starts at 3pm, when bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets for the day.
I’ll be back tomorrow with a first look at the men’s Miami prices.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson