Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022
ATP Miami - Casper for the conditions at 20/1...
Tuesday 29th March 2022
Week two of the Miami Open is shaping up to be good. As with Indian Wells earlier this month, we’ve seen some intriguing contests and epic battles – with match points saved in several matches…
Not least 2021 Miami men’s runner-up Jannik Sinner. He saved three match points in his first match last week. And then fended off FIVE of them in the next round. How much energy have those two three-set fights taken out of the young Italian? And remember, Jannik pulled out of Indian Wells through illness last time out.
Today’s opponent is Nick Kyrgios – 33/1 on day one, now 7/1 at best, after showing some absolutely world-class play in the opening rounds. As ever, the question with Nick: how long can he hold it all together? The bookies have the Aussie as the 4/9 (1.44) favourite to beat Sinner. My take here is that I hope they play out a classic – and wear each other out…
Casper for the conditions at 20/1…
Today is ‘Super 16’ day in the men’s event, with eight Last 16 matches all on the Tuesday schedule – and quarter-final places up for grabs…
In the bottom section of the Kyrgios-Sinner part of the ATP Miami draw, the one I like from the remaining prices is CASPER RUUD at 20/1+. One of our Ones to Watch in 2021 alumni, the 23-year-old Norwegian is now a Top 10 player, sitting at no.8 in the world.
My key reasoning for making this bet today is the way the courts have been playing here at Miami 2022. Time after time over the past few days, I’ve seen player interviews and match reports, where the courts are being described as ‘slow.’
Daniil Medvedev says: “They are really slow courts here.” Indian Wells champ Taylor Fritz repeated that assessment almost word-for-word after his match on Monday.
Slow hard courts can play into the hands of clay-court specialists. Casper Ruud = check. He’s won seven ATP titles so far in his promising young career, and six of them have come on clay.
From the tennis I’ve seen, the other note to take from the slow conditions is that players with the pure power to hit through the court are doing well. Cases in point being the likes of Carlos Alcaraz and Kyrgios in the men’s; Petra Kvitova, Naomi Osaka, and our 33/1 pick Danielle Collins in the women’s. Ruud also ticks the box in the power department: he possesses a monster forehand.
Casper can look after his service games, too. In the opening rounds, he’s won two out of two matches in straight sets – and is yet to face a single break point.
The final piece of evidence to get us in action today is Ruud’s head-to-head against this afternoon’s opponent, Cameron Norrie. The results book has it as 2-0 to the Norwegian, and perhaps most tellingly of all, both victories came on hard courts, and just last year.
Also in the book…
In the top half of the men’s draw we have two Ones to Watch picks still standing. 50/1 youngster Jenson Brooksby has earned himself another shot at a big name. The 21-year-old American takes on Medvedev this evening. The upset is 4/1.
Reigning Miami champion Hubert Hurkacz (33/1) is priced as the favourite to beat the big-serving South African, Lloyd Harris.
In the women’s, we have the aforementioned Danielle Collins. The American is already assured of a new career-best ranking next week. She’ll want more though. If you’re able to stay up late tonight, Osaka v Collins at Midnight should be good. All the matches are live on Amazon Prime Video. You can also watch via live streaming on bookie websites such as Bet365.
From top prices of 33/1, 28/1 & 25/1 when we backed her on day one, Collins is now 9/1 in the Outright Winner market. As ever with our selections, the goal is to get a big Each Way price in the book for an exciting run – and we’re doing okay on that front once again here in Miami.
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Miami – Miami Open presented by Itau
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Play starts at 4pm, when bookies will take down their Outright Winner markets for the day.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson