Tennis Betting Advice - March 2022

Withdrawals galore - and a semi-final opportunity...

Thursday 31st March 2022

Withdrawals galore…

Players have been dropping like flies in Miami.

Long-term member L.J writes in to voice their frustration:

“Hi Tom. This is an absolute joke, all these players pulling out of Miami, never known anything like it. This is a top event, so no reason to be saving themselves for another day, as the French is months away. I really think the authorities should look into this, as it is becoming a recurring theme. This behaviour didn't happen until quite recently, players in the 70's would never quit because they had a twinge or two, these modern day prima donnas need to have a good look at themselves. And of course it doesn't help us in our punting endeavours. What do you think about it, Tom, I'm sure you're not happy with it? Maybe you could have a chat about it in your next post. I think we have lost four of your selections, but might get our money back on Berrettini. Best regards, L.J.”

On the subject of withdrawals & in-match retirements, I’m working on an article for you, which will focus on the bookies’ terms & conditions and tennis betting rules. More on that soon.

In terms of how the Miami Open has been shaping up, two players in particular have found themselves benefitting from the glut of withdrawals and retirements…

In the women’s tournament, Jessica Pegula is into the semi finals – but has only had to ‘win’ two matches to get there. Her Last 16 opponent Anhelina Kalinina pulled out after losing the first set, 6-0. Then, in the quarter finals, one of the top names in the draw, Paula Badosa, pulled up feeling unwell when 4-1 down in the opening set.

Pegula was 33/1 on day one. The American is now 7/1 for the trophy – but we don’t really know how well she’s playing, as the last two matches have been pretty much non-events.

In the men’s, 500/1 rank outsider Francisco Cerundolo is into the ATP Miami semi finals… having never won a single hard-court match at tour level before last week.

To be fair to the upcoming 23-year-old Argentinean, he’s been playing well – with more court time under his belt than Pegula. But the fact remains, Cerundolo has had a helping hand or two along the way…

In the 2nd round, he took on one of our picks, Reilly Opelka, who ambled around looking fairly unhappy for a set and half, before chucking in the towel with the score at a resounding 6-1, 3-1 to the underdog.

Cerundolo then posted a good victory over Gael Monfils (the Frenchman himself no stranger to injuries and withdrawals). In the Last 16, Francisco made the most of an ailing Frances Tiafoe, ending up a convincing 6-2 winner in the final set, with Tiafoe wincing between points and conversing with the courtside physio.

Then… in yesterday’s quarter-final, the world no.103 was granted yet another break, with hot young property Jannik Sinner retiring with foot blisters at 4-1 down in the first set.

A semi-final opportunity…

When it all shakes down, it means that Cerundolo is into the semi finals of this prestigious ATP 1000 ‘Masters’ event – by far the biggest (and most lucrative) tournament result of his young career. The man he’ll face in the semis: our Ones to Watch pick, Casper Ruud

Ruud had a big win last night, turning over the odds to beat world no.4 Alexander Zverev in three sets. Having taken out Cameron Norrie in straight sets in the last round (the Brit had his left leg heavily taped up and was clearly not at full speed – can you see the theme here?). From odds of 22/1 and 20/1 when we got him in the book this week, Ruud is now trading at 3/1 for the title.

Is this the Norwegian’s moment? It’s certainly on paper as good an opportunity as the 23-year-old could hope for. Casper is no.8 in the world, compared to Cerundolo at no.103.

Ruud has come close at this level before, reaching the semi-final stage at Masters 1000 events three times. Last season, in both Monte Carlo and Madrid, where we were on him at odds of 100/1 and 66/1, respectively. And in Rome in 2020, we had Casper in the book as a 150/1 shot – only beaten in the semis by an imperious Novak Djokovic.

  • Going into tomorrow’s big match in Miami, the bookies have our man Ruud as a heavy 1/6 (1.17) favourite to beat Cerundolo and reach the final. Doing so would ensure a half-the-odds payout from our 20/1+ Outright Winner bet. With that in mind, you may wish to cover some of your Miami stakes by having a ‘saver bet’ on Cerundolo to beat Ruud at 4/1 (5.0) in the Match Winner market. I’ll leave that decision up to you

After a big win in Indian Wells last time out, these two March events in the USA have provided us with plenty of entertainment, as well as profit. And with 20/1 Ruud in the semi finals on Friday, and 33/1 Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter finals v tournament favourite Daniil Medvedev today (6pm), we’re not done in Miami yet…
Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch