Tennis Betting Advice - March 2023
The season starts now (with a 50/1 shot)...
Thursday 2nd March 2023
March is here, and I for one am glad about that…
I took a day yesterday to get this week’s blows out of my system. I’d love to say that a flurry of losing bets is just water off a duck’s back after all these years. But that would be a lie. I’m not sure we’ve ever had a week where all five of our tournament picks were sent packing in the very 1st round. But that’s what transpired over the last few days.
I could write a whole essay on near misses, bad performances, match points won or lost, and ones that got away - for February alone. But that’s not the best use of time and energy. There’s only one direction to go in, and that’s forwards…
The season starts now…
If you’ve been with Ones to Watch for a year or more, then you’ll know all about why we like March so much. There are two events on the tennis calendar this month - and they’re biggies…
First up, starting next week, we have Indian Wells in California. The first men’s ATP ‘Masters’ 1000 event of the year, and the second WTA 1000 tournament of the season.
That’s swiftly followed by a trip to Florida for the Miami Open. Once again, both the men and women will be in action, in this high-status 1000-grade combined ATP & WTA tournament.
Indian Wells & Miami are colloquially known as ‘the Sunshine Double.’ And even if the weather isn’t always glorious unbroken sunshine (it can get windy at both venues), these two large-scale tournaments are always bright spots on the calendar…
Some refer to these events as the ‘Fifth Majors.’ And I’d say that’s a fair statement. With seven rounds in the draw, and nearly a fortnight per tournament. Only the full 128-player, two-week Grand Slams hold more prestige and weight than Indian Wells and Miami.
Both are played in vast, impressive stadiums. With ‘Tennis Paradise’ situated in the Californian desert for Indian Wells, and the Miami Open moving to the Hard Rock Stadium a couple of years back.
Massive prices in March…
As well as being two top-quality tennis tournaments for us to get excited about. The main reason we look forward to the March Sunshine Double so much is for the betting. With a heap of recent history that all points to the same thing, both for the overall results and for our own Ones to Watch picks: massive prices…
Here’s a list of some of the biggest-odds finalists from recent seasons…
Last 5 years – Indian Wells & Miami:
ATP Indian Wells – Taylor Fritz champion – 100/1 (OTW 100/1 winner)
ATP Miami – Casper Ruud runner-up – 40/1 (OTW backed 22/1 Each Way mid-tournament)
ATP Indian Wells – Cameron Norrie champion – 66/1
ATP Indian Wells – Nikoloz Basilashvili runner-up – 100/1
WTA Indian Wells – Paula Badosa champion – 40/1
WTA Indian Wells – Victoria Azarenka runner-up – 33/1
ATP Miami – Hubert Hurkacz champion – 100/1
ATP Miami – Jannik Sinner runner-up – 33/1 (OTW Each Way payout)
WTA Miami – Bianca Andreescu runner-up – 25/1 (OTW Each Way payout)
Didn’t play – coronavirus
ATP Indian Wells – Dominic Thiem champion – 80/1
WTA Indian Wells – Bianca Andreescu champion – 100/1 (OTW backed 30/1 Each Way mid-tournament)
ATP Miami – John Isner runner-up – 40/1
WTA Miami – Ashleigh Barty champion – 28/1
WTA Indian Wells – Naomi Osaka champion – 125/1
WTA Indian Wells – Daria Kasatkina runner-up – 80/1 (OTW Each Way payout)
ATP Miami – John Isner champion – 80/1
ATP Miami – Alexander Zverev runner-up – 25/1
WTA Miami – Sloane Stephens champion – 66/1
WTA Miami – Jelena Ostapenko runner-up – 50/1
WTA Indian Wells – Elena Vesnina champion – 100/1
WTA Indian Wells – Svetlana Kuznetsova runner-up – 50/1
That’s quite the stack of outcomes. With few bigger or better than our 100/1 winner on Taylor Fritz last March. The California native became a great friend of ours (although he doesn’t know it). With Taylor lifting the biggest trophy of his career to date at Indian Wells last season…
This year, there’s no chance that Mr Fritz will be anything near 100/1 or 80/1. My guess would be more like 20/1 and 16s. We’ll see next week…
There are a couple of moves I want to make today though…
The rise of Taylor Fritz…
Fritz has just achieved a new career-high ranking, starting March at no.5 in the world. He’s the first American male player for some time to threaten the very top of the rankings in this way.
The 25-year-old has started 2023 in good form, yet I feel he’s still flying under the radar somewhat. Granted, Taylor’s recent participation in Netflix’s Break Point series has raised his public profile and no doubt brought him (and his girlfriend) a stack of new social media followers. But while he’s very much respected in the sport, I get the feeling that not many people are really talking-up Taylor’s chances for the Majors…
We’ve been tracking Fritz as a Ones to Watch player since he was a teenager. Last year’s Indian Wells win was no flash in the pan. Winning a first ATP 1000 title was a logical and aimed-for next step in his progress towards the two ultimate goals for any top-level professional: the no.1 ranking, and a Grand Slam trophy…
Fritz is looking good in 2023. At the time of writing, he’s into the quarter finals at the ATP 500 event in Acapulco, following on from winning the ATP 250 title at Delray Beach last month.
The American has a 14-3 match win-loss record in his favour this season. Including 12-2 on hard courts, his top surface, on which he’s won three of his five career ATP Tour titles - including Indian Wells, and then Tokyo and Delray Beach, within the last twelve months. The other two both came on grass at Eastbourne…
If you can see where I’m going with this, then the following picks need little in the way of further elaboration. Let’s get Taylor Fritz in the book at big prices for Wimbledon and the US Open this summer.
Two big prices for the summer ‘Slams…
At respective odds of 40/1 and 33/1 in general for the two summer Grand Slams at Wimbledon and the US Open, Fritz looks good value to me.
Yes, he’s an outsider behind the likes of world no.1, Novak Djokovic. But consider this: Fritz is ranked no.5 in the world, yet there are 12 men ahead of him at shorter prices in the betting for both Wimbledon and the US Open 2023. I reckon there are opportunities for us here…
Last summer we were on Taylor at 100/1 in SW19, and that really was a case of what could’ve been, with the American edged out in the quarter finals in a five-set classic by Rafael Nadal… only for the Spanish great to then pull out injured and not play the semis, handing Nick Kyrgios a pass through to the Wimbledon final.
Fritz has the serve and weapons to deliver on grass, and if he stays fit, then this year might be his best chance yet at Wimbledon. Odds of 50/1 and 40/1 are bigger than I would expect.
Going back to Indian Wells and hard courts, there’s a link we’ve discussed before when it comes to that Californian event producing US Open champions of the near future…
The above list of recent big-price Indian Wells winners includes the likes of Naomi Osaka, Bianca Andreescu, and Dominic Thiem. All of whom went on to win a maiden Grand Slam title at the US Open, a year or two after triumphing at Indian Wells. Fritz at 33/1 looks a great Ones to Watch candidate for New York this year.
So, the messages for today are:
A tough recent run of results for us, but lots to look forward to - with Indian Wells & Miami on the way this month.
And let’s get Taylor Fritz in the book at big early-bird prices for Wimbledon & the US Open.
Ones to Watch picks:
I’ve listed below the best prices with bookies who’s online rules state that Outright Winner bets will be void if the player doesn’t take part in the event.
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Wimbledon 2023 – Men’s
US Open 2023 – Men’s
I’ll be back next week, as we head to Indian Wells…
Enjoy the tennis…