Tennis Betting Advice - March 2023
Indian Wells - 40/1 and 50/1 shots to add to the book...
Monday 13th March 2023
We’re into week two of Indian Wells, and the Last 16 line-ups will get completed tonight…
With the quarter finals, semis, and finals still to come. It’s about to be ‘business time’ in both the men’s and women’s events. We’re adding three players to the book at good-looking prices today…
From our initial, day-one picks. We have three of our six players still in the running – all in the men’s event:
The 2021 champion Cameron Norrie (33/1) pulled off a great comeback victory last night, clawing his way back from a set and 1-4 down against an inspired Taro Daniel. Cam dug in to win 6-7, 7-5, 6-2, and book his place in the Last 16. Norrie has now won 11 of his last 12 matches at Indian Wells. The bookies now make our man 16/1 in general to go all the way this week – with Unibet a current best price of 20/1.
Our two 50/1 shots, Hubert Hurkacz and Tommy Paul, can both still be backed at that top price today (Bet365, Skybet, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Betfred, Betway). They play each other in the 3rd Round this evening, so we’re guaranteed a 50/1 shot through to the Last 16 there.
40/1 and 50/1 shots to add to the book…
There’s still a lot of tennis to be played at Indian Wells 2023. And there are still plenty of big prices around…
Despite quite a few shocks in the early rounds. With seeded players and star names such as Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud dumped out in the men’s. And recently in-form women such as Victoria Azarenka and Donna Vekic knocked out in week one, too. As well as some very particular and tricky playing conditions, with swirling wind and slow courts creating a conundrum that some top players find hard to crack…
I reckon the scene is still laid out for some upsets this week. Yes, the biggest names are still there at the top of the betting. Namely, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka in the women’s, with plenty of other proven contenders in the field, too. Daniil Medvedev and Carlos Alcaraz in the men’s, to name just two. But as we discussed at length in the build-up to this month’s ‘Sunshine Double’ in the States, Indian Wells and the Miami Open have a long track record for producing surprises. And surprises mean big prices…
One I want to add to the men’s today is CRISTIAN GARIN. A former Ones to Watch name when he was younger, the Chilean is still only 26 years of age. And his current ranking of no.97 doesn’t reflect his true ability. He struggled for form after lockdown, as well as having injuries to contend with. But I’ve always had in my mind a quote from one of Cristian’s coaches last summer, who said that he really believed Garin has the skills and mindset to go all the way to the top (you can read the article on the ATP website here).
With these tricky playing conditions in the Californian desert, on some gritty, hard-to-hit through Indian Wells courts, we’ve seen a few clay-courters making hay in the early rounds. Cristian Garin is one of them: all five of his ATP titles to date have come on clay. He’s played 10 won 8 on hard courts so far in 2023 though, with 5 of those match wins coming here at Tennis Paradise… Garin came through qualifying, and then the first three Rounds proper, and is now 10 out of 10 for sets of tennis won on these courts since last Tuesday.
Odds of 50/1 appeal as an Each Way, outsider price for us here, with many firms going that price in today’s Outright Winner market. And Betfred have stuck their neck out at 150/1, and Unibet are even bigger, at 180/1.
In the top half of the women’s draw, the ominous presence of world no.1 and reigning WTA Indian Wells champ Iga Swiatek as the clear 6/5 (2.2) favourite for the trophy means the odds remain high for many of the other contenders on this side of the draw-sheet. The two I like can’t face the prolific Pole until the semi-final stage, however. And anything can happen between now and then…
MARKETA VONDROUSOVA and KAROLINA MUCHOVA are two players we have backed before at big odds. And both fall into the category of being somewhat enigmatic: truly gifted and unique players, if only they can stay fit and ‘in the zone’ long enough to deliver on the big stage, time and time again…
At an event like this one and at odds of 40/1 or 33/1, we’d take this week as a one-off performance party – and not worry about their long-term form.
The signs are certainly there from week one here in Indian Wells, with both women getting my underdog antenna twitching on these courts and in this field: Muchova has won more matches in her career on clay courts than hard courts; Vondrousova was a teenage 40/1 French Open finalist for us. And both have the all-round game to deliver on all playing surfaces: dangerous first serves, groundstrokes with meat, and the magic added ingredient of ‘wand like’ qualities when it comes to racket skills such as lobs, slice, and drop-shots. All of which can make them menacing outsiders over the next few days here at Indian Wells…
If both win their matches this evening, then Vondrousova and Muchova would meet in the Last 16. And if happens, that match-up would give us a player in the Quarter Finals at an attractive price. Muchova is short odds-on to beat Martina Trevisan today. While Vondrousova is also priced as favourite, to beat the recently back from injury Ons Jabeur. And Jabeur’s latest quotes don’t inspire much confidence in the Tunisian’s current form and state of mind. This from the official WTA website:
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Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places)
ATP Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open:
WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open:
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Play starts from 6pm, UK time. Bookies take down the Outright Winner markets during play.
Indian Wells is being shown live every evening on Amazon Prime Video.
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Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson