Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024
Indian Wells - Day 1: Women's picks at 50/1 and 150/1...
Wednesday 6th March 2024
Welcome to Day 1 of your brand new, DAILY Indian Wells service…
I’ll be in your inbox around lunchtime every day, for the full 12 days of the tournament…
The men and women are both here in the Californian desert, at the place they call ‘Tennis Paradise’…
The Indian Wells Tennis Garden will see the opening 1st round matches take place this evening. With play starting from 7pm, UK time.
Let’s get started…
As ever, our modus operandi in the tournament Outright Winner markets is as follows:
We back appealing outsiders, at attractive Each Way prices…
And we’ve already got one in the book…
SORANA CIRSTEA was advised in yesterday’s email – a dangerous outsider with a history of outperforming her odds at this venue, and in WTA 1000 ‘Masters’ events played on hard courts.
We took standout prices of 200/1 for the Outright Win and 150/1 to Reach the Final. Or 150/1 Each Way available in general (1/2 odds 1-2 places).
If you’re not on Cirstea yet, any triple-figure price you can get is worth taking – and there’s plenty of 100/1+ about for the Romanian.
Women’s Outright Winner market…
The top of the betting holds no surprises whatsoever. Women’s world no.1 Iga Swiatek won this title in 2022, in a stellar season in which she won a total of eight tournaments. Swiatek is the 11/4 (3.75) favourite here.
The Pole has a tough draw though. And she’s closely followed in the betting by January’s Australian Open champion, world no.2 Aryna Sabalenka, priced at 10/3 (4.33).
World no.3 and teenage US Open champ Coco Gauff is flying the flag for the USA at 13/2 (7.5). And just above of Coco in the bookies’ price list, world no.4 Elena Rybakina at 6/1 (7.0) at best and 11/2 (6.5) in general.
The bookmakers are very clear about that quartet being the new ‘Big Four’ in women’s tennis right now. The next name on the list is world no.5 Jessica Pegula – and there’s a big gap between the top four and Pegula’s price, at 25/1. While world no.6 Ons Jabeur, who has been struggling mentally and physically on court since a second heartbreaking defeat in the Wimbledon final, is right out at 50/1.
If we consider the remainder of the women’s Top 10, then that also includes our recent 33/1 Each Way runner-up at the Australian Open, Qinwen Zheng. The Chinese star has been rising fast through the rankings over the past six months or so. She’s now up to no.8, and goes off at odds of 28/1 here. I feel there’s a slight slump in her level post-Australia, though. And despite her success and progress, the 21-year-old still gets involved in too many three-set scraps for my liking…
In a big tournament like this, you need to perfect the art of winning well in straight sets, preserving energy for when things get really serious, deep in week two.
World no.9 Maria Sakkari also has a bad habit of failing to close out matches. A recent change of coach is yet to convince me that the Greek player is over her problems. Maria is on record as saying she struggles with the pressure of being a top player. That’s not a good sign. To be fair, Sakkari has credentials as an outside chance here, having reached the WTA Indian Wells semi finals last year, and the final the year before. The 28-year-old is 66/1 for a reason though, and I can’t trust her right now.
That leaves us with two Top 10 names left to consider – and this is where I become more interested…
‘The enigma’ MARKETA VONDROUSOVA continues to dumfound. One week she appears injured or out of the sorts. The next time you see her, the Czech left-hander looks like a world-beater. Having won Wimbledon for us at big odds last summer, Marketa owes us nothing. And we’re well in credit on the world no.7, having also profited from her 40/1 run to the French Open final back in 2019. Still just 24 years of age now, Vondrousova is in many ways an archetypal Ones to Watch pick: a dangerous outsider, not often in the headlines, but with the talent to beat anyone, anytime…
Odds of 50/1 appeal to me here. Vondrousova got to the WTA 1000 Dubai quarter finals last month. And here at Indian Wells, Marketa has made the Last 16 or better in four out of five career visits – including one quarter final appearance. She has the game and skills to go all the way. It’s just a matter of catching her when it all clicks. The 50/1 Each Way price allows us to take that risk.
The other Top 10-er worthy of our support here is JELENA OSTAPENKO. The 100/1 French Open 2017 winner is another Ones to Watch alumni who falls into the good day/ bad day category. So far this season, the world no.10 has certainly been more hit than miss…
Ostapenko has powered back into the Top 10, winning two of the five WTA tournaments that’s she competed in in 2024. Overall, the big-hitting 26-year-old Latvian is played 20 won 16 this year – that’s an 80% match win-rate, all on hard courts, which demonstrates some valuable consistency.
Add in the fact that the Indian Wells draw has thrown Jelena into the same side as Swiatek, with Ostapenko holding a very noteworthy 4-0 career head-to-head against the world no.1. And odds of 33/1 – 25/1 make Ostapenko a standout ‘best of the rest’ pick for me here.
From further down the rankings and the field, as well as Sorana Cirstea. Other big-odds outsiders with could-come-through potential on my shortlist include our Aussie Open breakout star and Ones to Watch in 2024 teenager, Linda Noskova (66/1). She could meet Swiatek again in the early rounds. Call me bloody-minded, but I was hoping for more like 100/1+ again for Noskova…
Mirra Andreeva is another teenager from our pre-season 2024 Report, but once again, the bookies are keeping her close; I’d want more than 40/1 for the 16-year-old. Although of course, that price would not be sniffed at should she go on and win a maiden WTA title next weekend…
I can’t complain about odds of 400/1 for Diana Shnaider, though. Another Ones to Watch in 2024 youngster, the 19-year-old Russian has started the season well, winning her first senior title (WTA 250 Hua Hin, Thailand – hard courts – at 40/1). The standard of opposition is tougher in her path through the draw at this WTA 1000 event, though. Shnaider is capable of pulling off a shock or two, and maybe we should look to follow her that way, on a match-by-match basis.
Liudmila Samsonova (50/1) remains dangerous, but hard to catch right (another of those)…
We can’t back them all…
But one big-hitting, huge-odds name in the bottom side of the draw does appeal to me here…
The resurgent DAYANA YASTREMSKA has been a Ones to Watch regular since before the pandemic. The Ukrainian is still only 23 years of age now, and after January’s impressive run to the Australian Open semi finals, where she went off as a whopping 500/1 rank outsider. It’s looking like her very best tennis might be on the way soon…
Yastremska looks a lot more mature on court these days. She used to be a bit salty in her no-look ‘handshakes’ at the net. She just wanted to win, at all costs (like Sofia Kenin). The young Ukrainian has had to grow up fast, and whenever I’ve seen her play lately, the world no.31 is a much warmer and more smiley figure at the end of the match – win or lose.
There’s no doubt that despite her slight frame, Dayana possesses the shot-making power and ball-striking ability to take the racket out of her opponents' hands…
It was a long time ago now, but Yastremska holds a 3-0 head-to-head record against Sabalenka – who probably hits the ball harder than anyone right now, including some of the men…
They haven’t met on court since 2020, when Dayana beat Aryna 2-0 on hard courts in Adelaide. Since then, Sabalenka has won two Grand Slam titles, and reached no.1 in the world. They could meet in this section of the Indian Wells draw though, and an on-song Yastremska could spring an ambush with her own hard-and-fast style of play.
Odds of 150/1 (and 100/1 to Reach the Final) certainly catch the eye for a player who recently made the final four at a Major. Perhaps the presence of Emma Raducanu as a potential early opponent is a factor here, too. But if there’s any British bias involved there, then it’ll play into our hands in terms of price.
Today’s matches…..
There are 32 matches on the Day 1 schedule tonight. We’re easing our way into the match betting markets with these three men’s 1st round selections – all strong contenders to be long matches, with close scoreboards, and potential three-set battles…
Andy Murray v David Goffin
The head-to-head is 7-1 to Murray (6-1 for completed matches), but he’s not the player he once was. Goffin is also approaching veteran status these days, but may be the sharper from the off tonight having come through qualifying. Murray averages around an hour a set these days, and keeps on getting into three-set marathons. Three of Goffin’s last four matches have gone to a deciding set, too…
Thanasi Kokkinakis v Marcos Giron
Giron brings the US form, having made the final in Dallas and semi finals in Delray Beach last month. Kokkinakis brings the big serve: there have been tiebreak, 7-6 set scores in five of his 10 completed matches this season…
Christoper Eubanks v Brandon Nakashima
The head-to-head in this all-American match-up is tied at 2-2, and this one could be close. Eubanks has a big serve as his key weapon. When fit, Nakashima has the superior movement and foot-speed. All four of their previous meetings have featured a tiebreak, with the two most recent encounters both going all the way to three sets…
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Ones to Watch picks – Indian Wells:
See above for full details
WTA Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Indian Wells – BNP Paribas Open
Men’s 1st Round matches:
Total Games markets available with all major bookmakers.
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Play starts from 7pm, UK time. Some bookies may take their Outright markets down for the night a little earlier (Bet365’s website says 6pm).
I’ll be back tomorrow lunchtime with your Day 2 email.
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone