Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024
Indian Wells - Day 10: Sitting on 80/1 for an 8/1 shot...
Friday 15th March 2024
Welcome to Day 10 of your Indian Wells service…
Marta on the edge of a magic moment…
When it comes to betting on tennis tournaments. We can’t control what happens on the court, or what the bookmakers do…
But we can choose which prices we take…
At January’s Australian Open, I wistfully noted how we’ve had to ‘leave behind’ Jannik Sinner these days. A Ones to Watch regular when he was still available at 33/1 or more for the big tournaments. These days, Jannik uniformly goes off as a favourite at single-figure odds.
Here at Indian Wells, the Aussie Open champ started at 3/1 for the men’s title. Sinner is now through to the semi finals, having taken out our huge 250/1 outsider, Jiri Lehecka.
Ones to Watch is all about the big prices: finding the ‘Next Big Thing,’ before they make it big, and in doing so take all the exciting odds with them – that’s the trick…
Here at Indian Wells, we’ve got Marta Kostyuk running for us at 100/1…
What a price to be on.
And it gets better, with many of you I’m sure also on the 21-year-old at 80/1 to Reach the Final. Or with a 50/1 ticket from the Each Way part of your Outright Winner bet (1/2 odds 1-2 places)…
With the women’s semi finals taking place tonight. We’re facing a classic Ones to Watch situation today…
Sitting on 80/1 for an 8/1 shot…
When it comes to Kostyuk’s match price against world no.1 and tournament favourite, Iga Swiatek. The bookmakers have Marta at 8/1 at best, and 6/1 in general. But the Reach the Final or Each Way place part of our wagers effectively puts us on the young Ukrainian at a whopping 80/1 or 50/1 to win this match…
Again, massive prices on our side. But nothing banked as of yet…
Herein lies the issue. If our tournament pick Kostyuk was today facing a player of similar or lower status/ ranking, then Marta may well have gone off as the Match Winner favourite tonight… and we’d have been able to avail ourselves of some odds-against prices on her semi final opponent, thus guaranteeing us a profit, whatever happens. Ifs, buts, and maybes…
The circumstances being what they are today. Swiatek’s price is so short, her favouritism in the market so heavy…
That it would simply require ‘giving up’ too many of our potential profit points, if we were to try and create a win-win night by backing Swiatek to beat Kostyuk.
For example:
Say you’ve got £10 on Kostyuk to Reach the Final at 80/1. That’s £800 profit should the underdog take out the favourite tonight…
An exciting, tantalising position to be in, for sure.
But the bookies’ prices are clear about the world no.1. They make Swiatek short odds-on to beat our player, at 1/10 (1.1) at best…
Those odds are very prohibitive if you’re trying to construct a no-lose situation from your Kostyuk bets. There's nothing we can do about that.
For example, let’s say you were prepared to give up half of your potential 80/1 Reach the Final profit. That would be 40 points (!) on Swiatek to beat Kostyuk at odds of 1/10… in order to shift just a paltry 4 points profit back your way should our player lose tonight.
As I said at the start of this email. We can choose the prices that we do or don’t take.
Personally, I didn’t come this far – roaring on a 100/1 outsider who no-one else was talking about as a serious trophy threat – just to jump off at the final hurdle…
And in terms of a Reach the Final or Each Way bet, today’s match IS the final hurdle...
The semi final is the ‘money match.’ Win tonight, and Kostyuk gives us a big profit for the tournament (and for the season to date as a whole, for that matter). THAT’S a classic Ones to Watch situation…
It only takes one…
We’ve got our player in the position to do something amazing for us. Not many people following this tournament this fortnight can say today that they’re on a 100/1 shot in the semi final, AND with odds of 80/1 or 50/1 to win the match. A match which our player is priced at 8/1 or 6/1 to win on the day…
We’re in position. We’ve got a ticket for a Big One, in our hands…
Marta is one match away from doing something spectacular for us. And if she doesn’t, then remember: we’ll go again soon. With the Miami Open next week, for starters. And in our Ones to Watch game of backing appealing outsiders at attractive prices, at odds of 100/1 and 80/1… it only takes one, all year…
I’ve already started making notes for Wimbledon and the upcoming spring & summer big events. Plenty to look forward to. But first of all, tonight, if you’re able to – try and get comfy and watch Kostyuk play Swiatek. If you’re on our player at the big odds that we’ve been discussing today, then enjoy having such a huge price on your side…
Wise words…
Of course, we’ll all enjoy it even more, should Marta win. But if she doesn’t, then remember this – a bit of advice once given to me by a dear friend who’s no longer with us. A guy who worked in the betting industry for years, and knew a thing or two about the ups and downs of this game: there’s always tomorrow…
I’ll be back with more over the weekend…
P.S
Want to get in touch? Email me at:
oliver.upstone@oxonpress.co.uk
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone