Tennis Betting Advice - March 2024
Notes from the tour - week 13...
Wednesday 27th March 2024
When Iga loses…
When Iga Swiatek loses, it tends to be to a big-priced outsider…
The women’s world no.1 has won 22 out of 25 matches this season. Universally going off as a short odds-on favourite. Priced at 1/5 (1.2) or shorter for 21 of those wins. And at 8/15 (1.53) for the other, which was against current world no.4, Elena Rybakina.
Swiatek’s three losses have come at the hands of players outside of the Top 10: Linda Noskova, Anna Kalinskaya, and – most recently, this week in Miami – Ekaterina Alexandrova…
Those three upsets paid out at odds of 9/1, 6/1, and 9/1, respectively.
To put it another way: backing the top-ranked player to always win is certainly no ticket to riches…
I’ve done the maths:
If you’d staked a tenner on Swiatek for each of her 25 matches so far this year. You’d have shelled out £250, and returned £252.60. That’s a £2.60 profit.
On the other hand, if you’d had that same tenner on Swiatek’s opponents, going off as the underdog in the betting every time. Your same £10 level stakes would’ve returned £270, for a £20 profit…
One for the book at 200/1…
When Swiatek first burst onto the scene, the young Pole won the French Open for us as a 100/1 rank outsider…
Here’s a player I like at big Ones to Watch prices for Roland Garros this spring…
JASMINE PAOLINI is having a great 2024 so far. One of the most improved women on the tour in the last couple of seasons. The 28-year-old Italian is up to a new highest ranking of no.14 in the world. On the back of the biggest title of her career, lifting the WTA 1000 ‘Masters’ trophy in Dubai last month.
Jasmine went off as 150/1 shot at that hard-court event in Dubai…
But the career numbers say that clay is Paolini’s best surface…
And that red-dirt pedigree, coupled with her 2024 form and rankings surge, puts the Italian on the Ones to Watch radar for this year’s trip to Paris for the only Grand Slam played on clay: the French Open…
The bookmakers are being a bit shy in pricing up Paolini for the women’s French Open 2024…
As I write, only a handful of firms have got Jasmine on the ante-post, Outright Winner lists for the second Major of the season. Bet365 go 66/1. But there are triple-figure odds available…
And for Each Way betting (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
My advice: getting Paolini in the book as an early-bird French Open pick at 100/1+ feels like good business for us right now. If Jasmine continues to excel, especially as the 2024 clay-court season gets underway after Easter – then this is a price that could drop significantly come May…
Here comes the clay…
The clay-court action gets going next week, with five tournaments on the schedule:
Women
WTA 250 Bogota, Colombia
WTA 500 Charleston, USA
Men
ATP 250 Houston, USA
ATP 250 Marrakech, Morocco
ATP 250 Estoril, Portugal
I’ll be back after the Bank Holiday weekend with more on those tournaments…
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone