Tennis Betting Advice - March 2025
A 20/1 shot for today - and a rare thing...
Tuesday 11th March 2025
It doesn’t happen very often. But we had a ‘wipeout’ night with our picks last night. With three players all losing in straight sets. The one lady left running for us at Indian Wells is Marta Kostyuk, at 66/1 or 50/1…
Talking of rare things. Here’s something else you don’t see much: a price freeze…
Right now, price rises are coming at all of us - left, right, and centre. Just this week alone I’ve received two ‘delicately’ (ahem) worded letters through the door, informing me of bills going up in April. And don’t even get me started on Thames Water…
And aside from household bills and utilities, this month I’ve already seen two betting tipsters hitting my inbox to announce they are raising their prices - one by almost double…
I’d like to take this opportunity to remind you that here at Spa Publishing Group (and formerly under Oxfordshire Press), we have not, and will not be, slapping you, the loyal and valued member, with any ‘mid-term’ price increases.
You’ll pay the membership rate you’re on from the day you joined, for as long as you stay with us. And we thank you for your continued support.
Back to the tennis in California now…
One area we have yet to get involved in at Indian Wells is the top half of the men’s draw…
No.1 seed Alexander Zverev was sent packing early on, and right now, this segment looks the most ‘up for grabs’ of any in the tournament.
Tommy Paul (current best Each Way price 20/1) and Daniil Medvedev (13/2 or 6/1 for the title) will slug it out tonight for a place in the quarter finals. And whoever wins that one will be a favourite against Marcos Giron (50/1) or Ones to Watch youngster, Arthur Fils (33/1).
Medvedev holds a 3-1 head-to-head record over Paul, and the Russian has got to the final here two years running - although he’s yet to actually lift the trophy. Daniil’s form has been a bit off for a while now. I’ve not seen anyone else mention it, but maybe that’s partly because in January, he became a father for the second time.
If Medvedev is distracted or not fully in the zone tonight, then a consistent hitter and keen runner like Tommy Paul will be a tough opponent - with the American crowd firmly behind Tommy, too.
In the very top section of this side of the draw, Tallon Griekspoor (20/1) is the man who took out Zverev. He’s up against surprise package Yosuke Watanuki (100/1, ranked no.349).
The victor of that one will play the winner of this evening’s exciting-looking clash between HOLGER RUNE (20/1) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (17/2 or 8/1)...
Tsitsipas is getting a bit of hype and positive news lately, having turned around a career slump - winning the ATP 500 event in Dubai last time out, as a 25/1 shot. The world no.9 brings a seven-match winning streak into today’s battle with world no.13 Rune. But I think it really will be a battle…
Rune has been one of the leading lights in my Ones to Watch player lists for a few years now. You may remember we successfully backed the Dane at 33/1 at the Paris Masters back in 2022. More recently, we were on the talented 21-year-old at ATP Acapulco the other day, only for Holger (and several other players) to be struck down with food poisoning that week.
The youngster has bounced back with two match wins so far here in Indian Wells.
And as well as his energetic style, and significant fighting spirit - in my opinion Holger is one of the best in-the-moment ‘match play’ players in the game right now - Rune also holds a 3-0 head-to-head record over Tsitsipas…
That past winning record may give the already naturally confident Rune a mental edge/ boost going into this evening’s contest.
You could also argue that Tsitsipas will feel he can turn this head-to-head around; on paper, the Greek player is the man in form.
But Stef is the favourite, Holger is the underdog - and here at Ones to Watch, when it comes to the tournament markets, we deal pretty much exclusively in the latter category…
Rune’s best career results to date have come at Masters 1000 level. These Indian Wells conditions look well-suited to his game. The same could be said about Stefanos. But at twice the odds to win the trophy, we’ll take the younger man.
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Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
ATP Indian Wells - BNP Paribas Open
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
Bookies will take down Outright markets during the day’s play (from 6pm, UK time).
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I’ll be back on Thursday with more player notes for you.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone