Tennis Betting Advice - March 2026
Ones to Watch this week at 14/1 and 55/1...
Monday 30th March 2026
We had a near miss in Miami last week. Our 80/1 Each Way pick Arthur Fils ran out of steam in the semi finals. Beaten by a fellow Ones to Watch name from recent seasons, Jiri Lehecka (who had gone off at 150/1).
The star-name favourite Jannik Sinner ended up winning the trophy in confident style, beating Lehecka 2-0 on Sunday night. In doing so, Sinner became the first man since Roger Federer to sweep up the March ‘Sunshine Double’ in Indian Wells and Miami.
I was a bit gutted by that Fils result. But if we’re getting 80/1 Each Way shots into semi finals, one match win away from big payouts - then we’re doing plenty right.
Five tournaments across the ATP & WTA Tours for us this week, all on clay. We’re concentrating on three of them with our Outright Winner selections today. Play starts from 4pm UK time…
ATP Houston has been bossed by Americans in recent years. The last four winners have all been Americans, with three of the last four finals being all-USA encounters. On that note:
Jenson Brooksby was a winning 12/1 pick for us here 12 months ago. He goes off at 16/1 to defend his title, although he has a tough-looking draw, and is yet to really hit his stride in 2026
Tommy Paul (4/1) is getting back to his best after injury slowed him down last summer. He was impressive in Miami last week (had match points v Fils in the quarter finals). Paul was a semi-finalist in Houston last season
Frances Tiafoe (8/1) has also played some good ball recently. And he has a great record here on the quirky clay courts of Houston: reaching the final three times in a row, with one trophy to his name
Other USA names on the list here include youngsters Alex Michelsen (11/1) and Learner Tien (12/1). With Brandon Nakashima at similar odds.
This is one of those rare situations, though, where I actually like the favourite. BEN SHELTON has played Houston just once before, in 2024, and he won it. Ben has spoken recently about coming out the other side of a tough patch of form. And I like his booming, loopy lefty serve on a court/ playing surface like this.
Shelton is 10/3 (4.33). And with my stats showing that favourites are actually having a good time of it so far in 2026, a couple of multiples would’ve already gone in this term, and a treble appeals this week with odds of 43/1 - 55/1 available (see below) for Shelton along with this duo:
WTA Charleston - JESSICA PEGULA at 5/2 (3.5). Reigning champ and world no.5 is in consistent winning form this season, reaching at least the quarter finals in 5 out of 5 events played
WTA Bogota - CAMILA OSORIO at 11/4 (3.75). One of the best ‘favourite tournament’ records you’ll see here: Osorio’s recent record at home in Colombia at WTA Bogota reads: winner - winner - semi-final - winner
As I say, this is an unusual tactic for us. But these three have appealing credentials this week. And 55/1 for the Each Way treble at Ladbrokes & Coral sounds very much like the kind of odds we like.
And back in our normal territory of solo, outsider selections…
Charleston is the biggest tournament of the week - graded WTA 500 - and two upcoming American players also catch the eye.
IVA JOVIC is a standout Ones to Watch youngster for this year. The 18-year-old world no.16 has gone in the book a couple of times for us recently, and at 14/1 in general here, she has the chance to showcase her game once again - and continue to make her mark on the sport that promises so much for her.
On the opposite side of the Charleston draw, HAILEY BAPTISTE at 40/1 or 33/1 is playing some great power-tennis at the moment, including a breakthrough quarter-final run at last week’s big WTA 1000 in Miami, as well as a semi-final streak at Abu Dhabi last month. A run to the Last 16 at the French Open in 2025 also suggests Hailey can deal with clay courts…
Indeed, both Jovic and Baptiste have positive career match win-loss records on clay. And like teenager Iva, 24-year-old Hailey arrives here holding a new career-best world ranking (no.33).
What’s more, the ‘green clay’ of Charleston isn’t quite the sloppy or sludgy stuff you might see in Europe or South America, and these two American players can be expected to deal with the conditions - maybe better than the bookmakers are forecasting.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ones to Watch picks:
See above for full details
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
ATP Houston - Ben Shelton
WTA Charleston - Jessica Pegula
WTA Bogota - Camila Osorio
Outright Winner – Each Way (1/2 odds 1-2 places):
WTA Charleston - Credit One Charleston Open
Iva Jovic @ 14/1 William Hill, Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway
Hailey Baptiste @ 40/1 William Hill, BetVictor, Betway, 33/1 Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, Ladbrokes, Coral
Play starts today from 4pm UK time, at which point bookies will suspend the Outright Winner market for the day.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
P.S
Follow our WhatsApp channel for service updates to your phone.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Oliver Upstone