Tennis Betting Advice - May 2018
4/1 for John to serve it up…
Thursday 10th May 2018
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Big win for Kyle…
Sloane Stephens had one of her off days yesterday, but we finished the day in profit thanks to a superb win for Kyle Edmund…
Edmund beat the struggling Novak Djokovic 6-3, 2-6, 6-3 to land odds of 13/5 (3.60) and 5/2 (3.50), and one of the biggest wins of his young career.
Our Outright Winner outsider pick for Madrid, John Isner at 50/1 or 40/1 Each Way, got off to a good start with a 7-6, 7-6 win over fellow American, Ryan Harrison.
Isner served a brutal 22 Aces in the match, won 88% of his 1st Serve Points and didn’t face a single break point. If he can keep that up on his side of the net then big John will be a tough opponent for anyone…
4/1 for John to serve it up…
I’ve got one match in my sights today and that’s Isner v Pablo Cuevas (3.30pm) – with a place in the ATP Madrid Masters quarter finals up for grabs.
Our man John Isner is 4/5+ (1.80+) to win the match, and that’s a price I’m happy to go with first and foremost.
The American is ranked No.9 in the world compared to his Uruguayan opponent at No.47. And while Cuevas has the clay court pedigree, Isner possesses the power to hit through him. Cuevas will be energetic & workmanlike but I believe Isner has the weapons to take him out.
ATP Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open
Match Winner:
BET: John Isner to beat Pablo Cuevas @ 10/11
BOOKIES: 10/11 (1.91) William Hill, 5/6 (1.83) BetVictor, Boylesports, 4/5 (1.80) Bet365, SunBets, Betway
STAKE: 1 pt
Latest odds here
The second bet I like is at more attractive odds, with Isner available at around 4/1 (5.00) to win the first set by the 7-6 (tiebreak) score.
This is an option with plenty of stats and evidence behind it…
Neither man has lost a single service game so far this week. The two sets that Cuevas has lost have been by the 7-6 score, and in both those there were no breaks of serve.
Four of the last five sets that Isner has played on clay have been decided by a tiebreak, and overall 7 of his last 10 matches on the ATP Tour have seen at least one 7-6 set.
Standing 6’10” tall and with one of the all-time most lethal serves to his name, I make no apologies for concentrating on big John here. In six of his last 10 matches the first set score has been 7-6. And in five of those six first set tiebreaks, Isner has come out on top.
Cuevas has also been looking after his serve nicely so far this week, serving 23 Aces across two matches (Isner had a 1st Round Bye so has only played one match) – and the Uruguayan has also won 80%+ of 1st Serve Points.
The bookies make it odds-on for a Tiebreak in the Match, and 2/1 (3.00) at best for the First Set to go that way. Considering Isner’s recent record and the fact that Cuevas has lost each of his last three tiebreaks, including two here in Madrid, the best price option stands out as the 7-6 First Set Score to Isner at 9/2 (5.50).
If you get the chance to follow the match in-play and the service games are flying by, Isner to win the second (and/ or third) set at around 4/1 each would be a decent tactic, too. Pre-match though the first set market is the one we have to work with and Isner is the pick for a small stake.
ATP Madrid – Mutua Madrid Open
John Isner v Pablo Cuevas:
BET: First Set Score – Isner 7-6 @ 9/2
BOOKIES: 9/2 (5.50) Boylesports, 4/1 (5.00) Bet365, 7/2 (4.50) Skybet, SunBets, Ladbrokes, William Hill
STAKE: 0.5 pt
Latest odds here
I’ll be back at the weekend – if not before – depending on how things are shaping up in Madrid.
Enjoy the tennis...
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson