Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019

Rome update – 90/1 Schwartzman in the semi finals…

Saturday 18th May 2019

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • ATP Rome…
  • Djokovic v Schwartzman…
  • Sunday night – next week’s picks…

For the third time in four weeks, we’ve got one of our big price Outright Winner picks into a semi final.

Diego Schwartzman, advised at 90/1 & 66/1 Each Way, is into the final four at an ATP Masters event for the first time in his career.

Yesterday’s 2-0 win over Kei Nishikori was another career first for the Argentinean, beating a Top 6 player for the first time.

Diego is in the ATP Rome semi finals. A 90/1 shot getting to that stage of a tournament is an achievement in its own right.

That’s the good news. The ‘bad news’ is that Diego’s next opponent is World No.1, Novak Djokovic.

Novak had a long, tough match against Juan Martin del Potro last night though – saving match points and coming from behind to win 4-6, 7-6, 6-4 in three hours. There is a chance that Schwartzman could capitalise on any signs of weariness from the Serbian.

Playing with value…

Djokovic is just 1/7 (1.14) to win the semi final today (7pm, live on Amazon Prime Video).

Those super-short odds are too prohibitive for me to advice a straight-up ‘saver bet.’ For example, if you want to protect your original 1 point Each Way bet on Schwartzman, then you’ll need to stake 20 pts on Djokovic to beat him today. That’s too much for me.

If you’re a trader, then Schwartzman is now 25/1 for the title – so from starting odds of 90/1 or 66/1 you do have good room to manoeuvre.

The upshot is that, thanks to the Each Way part of our 90/1 or 66/1 bet offering half the odds for reaching the final, we effectively have 45/1 or 33/1 for Schwartzman to beat Djokovic today. Compared to the match winner price of 5/1 for Schwartzman.

We have backed another excellent value player this week. Diego has shown his best form of the season so far, especially playing outside of South America.

Our man is yet to drop a set this week, with four consecutive 2-0 victories. That may well change this evening. But I expect Schwartzman to give Djokovic a good match. And the upset win is by no means out of the question, especially given the circumstances after the World No.1’s tough match last night.

I’ll be back on Sunday evening with our first picks for next week’s tournaments. And soon we’ll be making an early move or two for the upcoming French Open, too.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch