Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019
Three big ones for Rome – and a Rollover…
Wednesday 15th May 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Ones to Watch at 50/1, 66/1 and 90/1...
After 20/1 Daniil Medvedev in Barcelona, we weren’t far off getting another big price in a final last week. Our 25/1 pick Sloane Stephens made the semi finals in Madrid, only losing to Kiki Bertens who went on to lift the trophy.
The French Open at the end of the month is coming up fast. The clay action continues this week with both the men and women taking part in big events in Rome.
Two players that made the Rome finals two years running – Alexander Zverev and Elina Svitolina – are already out. The upset hunt is on. I’m back from my travels and ready to go in with three big-odds picks for us this week…
This week’s picks…
Play continues from 10am so we’ll get straight into our Outright Winner picks. In the men’s, I like the fancy prices available for Diego Schwartzman (90/1) and Borna Coric (66/1). Both are very good on the clay with excellent movement and agility. And both look a little underrated here.
Schwartzman is in the top half of the draw but can’t meet World No.1 and last week’s Madrid champion Novak Djokovic (2/1) until the semi finals. Until then the diminutive Argentinean – at 5’7”, famed as the shortest man on the tour – has a winnable looking route through to the quarter finals. A bit like David Goffin, when Diego is on his A-game he is a strong threat at the top level, despite seemingly always the underdog. All 17 of his career ATP & ITF titles have come on clay.
Coric is in the bottom half and that could mean having to beat Roger Federer (14/1) and 15/8 (2.88) tournament favourite Rafael Nadal. That’s how it looks on paper. But tennis tournaments aren’t played on paper…
Reigning champ Rafa has lost three semi finals in a row this clay season – which is ‘poor’ form by Nadal’s crazy-high standards. Federer hasn’t won a clay title since 2015. Coric has beaten both men before, including a 2-2 record v Nadal and winning two of his last three meetings with Federer. Any meeting in Rome this week would be a first-time encounter on clay. At 22 years of age, Coric is one to watch at big tournaments this season and beyond – especially at nice Each Way prices.
In the women’s, our recent 50/1 French Open ‘One to Watch’ pick Anett Kontaveit is also a top price 50/1 for WTA Rome and can follow up on previous quarter final (2017) and semi final (2018) runs here.
The 23-year-old Estonian went out in the 1st Round in Madrid last time out, but successfully came through her opening match in Italy this week. That two-sets-to-one victory – where she came back from a set down – could be the spark that sets Kontaveit back into the form that saw her make the Stuttgart final before Madrid, and the Miami semi finals before that. Again, this is a young & improving player to follow right now at attractive prices.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner:
ATP Rome – Internazionali BNL d’Italia
BET: Diego Schwartzman @ 90/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 90/1 (91.00) 888 Sport, Unibet, 66/1 (67.00) Bet365, Boylesports
BET: Borna Coric @ 66/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 66/1 (67.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 50/1 (51.00) Ladbrokes, Coral, 888 Sport, Unibet, NetBet, 10Bet
WTA Rome – Internazionali BNL d’Italia
BET: Anett Kontaveit @ 50/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 50/1 (51.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 25/1 (26.00) in general
The Rollover – bet No.7…
At the start of April we kicked off our new Rollover bet. The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark. I believe that’s an achievable target. We’re not reaching for the stars. And this new feature adds some extra excitement to our weekly tennis coverage.
After bet No.6 won last week, the Rollover stake stands at £50.49. That goes on our next selection, with the match scheduled for around 1pm this afternoon at WTA Rome…
Rollover bet:
Somewhat surprisingly, this price looks a little big for the World No.1. Osaka beat Cibulkova 2-0 in Madrid last week. The 21-year-old Osaka now holds a 3-0 career head-to-head over the 30-year-old Slovakian, and Naomi is yet to drop a set v Dominika in those three matches.
Osaka went on to lose in the Madrid quarter finals, having served for the match. She admitted that the battle for the World No.1 spot had got to her a bit there. But this 2nd Round match won’t have as much pressure; Osaka needs quarter final or better here to guarantee top seeding at the French Open – so in my opinion any nervy moments are more likely to come ahead of that specific match.
Osaka is 4/9 (1.44) with Betway, 2/5 (1.40) with Bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, BetVictor.
I’ll be back during the week with more from Rome.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson