Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019

French Open: Opportunity for Jo at 40/1…

Thursday 30th May 2019

French Open - Bets of the Day

In your Ones to Watch email today:

  • Outright Winner pick at 40/1…
  • The Rollover…
  • Play starts 10am…

Good morning and welcome to Day Five of your French Open 2019 daily service.

I’ll be in your inbox by 8am every morning. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.

You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk

The draws are taking shape…

Yesterday saw two strong performances from two of our Women’s picks from the Czech Republic…

Marketa Vondrousova won the battle of the teenagers on Court 7, with the 19-year-old Czech beating 18-year-old Russian, Anastasia Potapova in straight sets, 6-4, 6-0.

Vondrousova played better in the 2nd Round than in the 1st, so that’s a good sign. In the Outright Winner market, our 40/1 Each Way pick is now 25/1 at best and around 20/1 in general.

Karolina Pliskova is looking in ominously good form. The big-serving Czech won 2-0 again, with her match scores in the first two rounds being 6-2, 6-3 and 6-2, 6-2. And with pre-tournament second favourite Kiki Bertens pulling out yesterday evening (illness), the bottom half of the draw has just got that bit simpler for Pliskova.

However, next up for Karolina is a big match. The in-form Croatian, Petra Martic stands between her and a place in the 4th Round. That could be a class match and we’ll look at it tomorrow.

In the Name the Finalists market, Pliskova forms one half of our 50/1 selection. Naomi Osaka is the other part of that bet. She’s also got a tough one next, with the World No.1 taking on Victoria Azarenka this morning (10am). That should be a good match, and I’ll be watching for sure.

Opportunity for Jo at 40/1…

After Angelique Kerber, Caroline Wozniacki and Petra Kvitova went out in the 1st Round, we can add Bertens and Bianca Andreescu to the list from round two. All were down to injury or illness to varying degrees.

That’s five big names out of the draw. Between them, those players accounted for two winners and a runner-up from the last five Grand Slams, the French Open second favourite, this year’s Indian Wells champion and three Top 10 players.

The fallout means the draw now looks that bit more promising for several players further down the list. In particular, the withdrawal of Bertens means Johanna Konta now won’t have to face the World No.4 in the next round, with World No.46 Viktoria Kuzmova the immediate benefactor of Kiki falling ill.

If Belinda Bencic fails to get through her 2nd Round match when it resumes today (level at 4-4 v Laura Siegemund in the final set when play was suspended last night), this section of the draw will look even more appealing…

Konta was 50/1 at the start of the tournament. With Bertens and Kerber out of the bottom half of the draw – and Konta playing well in the opening two rounds – odds of 40/1 and 33/1 are still available and that looks an opportunity to grab some value…

Regardless of the draw-sheet, Jo is in fine form right now and having her best ever clay-court season. Despite her high-profile status over here as the British No.1, Konta looks to be flying under the radar a bit in the French Open betting.

So far on clay in 2019, Jo has a 12-3 match win-loss record (80%). She’s reached two finals, finishing runner-up at odds of 10/1 in Rabat and 66/1 in the big Premier 5 event in Rome.

During this impressive run, Konta’s only defeats have come to two other in-form players that we’re already involved with for the French Open – Karolina Pliskova and Maria Sakkari – along with reigning Roland Garros champion Simona Halep.

After Konta’s 2nd Round match went the distance yesterday, eight of her 15 matches on clay have gone to three sets. Having, taking the positive from this, Jo has won all eight in the deciding set and that’s a big tick when it comes to physical conditioning and mental resilience.

Plotting the route…

Konta is now 11/2 (6.50) in general to win the 3rd Quarter. If she gets to the quarter final, the likely opponent would be one of Sloane Stephens, Garbine Muguruza or Elina Svitolina…

Those three are all higher in the rankings and shorter in the betting than Konta. But Jo has a 2-0 head-to-head record v Stephens (12/1 for French Open), including a win over the American on clay in Rome this month.

The head-to-head with Muguruza (18/1) is 2-2 and all four encounters have gone to a final set, with the last two coming at Grand Slams with one win apiece.

Svitolina (18/1) has a 4-0 record v Konta in her favour. But with the big-name withdrawals we’ve already seen in mind, it’s worth pointing out that the World No.9 arrived here with questions over a knee injury – and the Ukrainian has yet to get past the quarter final hurdle in any Grand Slam.

Konta has made semi finals at the Australian Open (2016) and Wimbledon (2017). Until this week she’d never won a match at the French Open…

In tennis you never know when the breakthrough is going to come. Aged 28 and ranked No.26, the facts are that Konta is showing her best ever clay-court form right now. Should she get past Kuzmova in the 3rd Round, odds of 40/1 or 33/1 will give us plenty to work with as the tournament progresses.

  • Konta is in the 3rd Quarter of the draw. In Q4 we have Vondrousova (as well as Pliskova in the Name the Finalists market). Konta can’t meet either of those two until the semi final stage, meaning this selection fits in well with our existing picks

Thursday matches…

A couple of our other Outright Winner picks are in action today.

We have 50/1 shot Maria Sakkari up against Katerina Siniakova.

And in the Men’s, our 500/1 and 300/1 outsider pick Lucas Pouille takes on Martin Klizan in the final match on the Thursday schedule on the main Philippe-Chatrier court. That’s a big billing for the French player, and I think it will work in his favour. The French players have been doing well so far this week, and the crowd will be 95% (if not more) for Pouille.

Elsewhere, exciting matches on Day Five include Aryna Sabalenka v teenager Amanda Anisimova and Daria Kasatkina v Monica Puig. All four of those players have featured in our various Ones to Watch lists in recent times. Both of those matches look like they could genuinely go either way.

And with things kicking off with Osaka v Azarenka at 10am, today should be an entertaining one.

Today’s bet:

Women’s Outright Winner:

BET: Johanna Konta @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 888 Sport, Unibet, 33/1 Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, BetVictor, Betway, Boylesports, NetBet, 10Bet

Latest odds here

  • Each Way terms: 1/2 odds 1-2 places
  • Note: Unless otherwise stated, our Outright Winner bets are 1 point Each Way (total stake 2 pts), and all other bets are 1 point to win

Our 5/1 Match Winner acca didn’t go our way yesterday. But at shorter prices our Rollover selections came in…

The Rollover – bet No.3…

Alongside our daily & tournament picks, we’ll be looking to profit from the French Open with our Rollover bet…

The aim is to roll a £10 stake over with match winner selections, cashing-out when we get to the £100 mark.

  • The Rollover advice will always be to bet with bookies that void match bets for uncompleted matches. That way we’ll never lose our stake/ rollover pot due to a match retirement. Find out more about bookies’ rules here

After yesterday’s £15 Treble won at 9/20, we have £21.75 going on today’s selections:

Rollover bet:

  • TREBLE – Caroline Garcia to beat Anna Blinkova, Madison Keys to beat Priscilla Hon & Borna Coric to beat Lloyd Harris @ 2/5 (1.40)

Garcia made the WTA Strasbourg final last week and the World No.22 has won five of her last six matches. Blinkova is ranked No.117 and had a very long match in the 1st Round. Garcia won their only previous meeting (2-0 on hard courts, 2018).

Keys is World No.14 and had a comfortable 6-1, 6-2 win over a player ranked No.70 in the 1st Round. Today’s opponent Hon is No.132 and the American is a strong favourite to beat her today.

Coric could be on course for a quarter final showdown with Novak Djokovic. The Croatian is the same age as today’s opponent (22), but there is a big gap in class here and the World No.15 can move into the 3rd Round with a win over No.90 Harris.

The Treble pays around 2/5 (1.40) with Bet365, BetVictor, Boylesports, Betway.

Latest odds here

I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Friday.

Enjoy the tennis…

Best wishes,

Oliver Upstone

Tom Wilson

Ones to Watch