Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019
French Open: Adding to the book at 50/1…
Friday 31st May 2019
French Open - Bets of the Day
In your Ones to Watch email today:
Good morning and welcome to Day Six of your French Open 2019 daily service.
I’ll be in your inbox by 8am every morning. And if you have any questions or want to drop me a line during the tournament, I’ll be on hand via email.
You can message me at: tom.wilson@oxonpress.co.uk
Epic encounters…
Yesterday’s big match certainly lived up to expectations, with Naomi Osaka and Victoria Azarenka playing out one of the highest-quality 2nd Round encounters you’ll see at a Grand Slam.
Just like in the 1st Round, Osaka made a slow start and had to come from behind – at times just a couple of points from defeat. But the World No.1 showed her class and played better as the match went on, eventually reeling in Azarenka 4-6, 7-5, 6-3 in a match that fell eight minutes short of three hours.
Maria Sakkari was involved in an even longer match – over three hours – and after blowing a 5-1 lead in the first set, before saving match points in the second, our 50/1 outsider eventually came out on the wrong side of a gruelling 7-6, 6-7, 6-3 score-line. Katerina Siniakova goes through to face Osaka in the next round.
In the Men’s Outright Winner market, we’re on a rank outsider in terms of odds with 500/1 Lucas Pouille our French pick. Pouille’s match with Martin Klizan was suspended due to failing light last night – with Klizan leading 7-6, 2-6, 6-3, 3-1.
Our man is in trouble but it’s not over yet. Pouille is a break behind in the fourth set, but he’s broken the Klizan serve at least once in each of the previous three sets – so the comeback is not out of the question. Some bookies still have Pouille at 150/1 in the Outright market, despite the scoreboard being against him. 888 Sport and Unibet are 600/1.
The match resumes today, second on Court Philippe-Chatrier.
Elsewhere, it wasn’t a good day for our Rollover yesterday with Caroline Garcia losing 1-6, 6-4, 6-4. That’s a disappointing result for the Frenchwoman, especially after winning the first set by such a dominant score.
Day Six…
It promises to be another entertaining day of tennis in Paris…
Stan Wawrinka v Grigor Dimitrov is a classy match-up and should see some fine tennis.
Pablo Carreno Busta has returned from injury and stormed through the first two rounds with a couple of 3-0 wins. The 3-0 Carreno-Busta score is the 11/4 (3.75) favourite in the Set Betting market. But the ever-unpredictable Benoit Paire could have something to say about that…
Paire came through a five-set marathon in the last round. The flamboyant Frenchman will either be cooked – or inspired by the crowd to deliver another down-to-the-wire battle.
In the Women’s, we have an interest in three matches…
Adding to the book at 50/1…
We’re on Jo Konta (40/1 or 33/1) and Marketa Vondrousova (40/1) in the Outright Winner market. And Karolina Pliskova forms one half of our 50/1 Name the Finalists pick, with Osaka.
Konta is an 8/13 (1.62) favourite against Victoria Kuzmova today.
Vondrousova is 8/15 (1.53) to beat Carla Suarez Navarro.
Pliskova is also favourite to reach the 4th Round today, at similar prices. However, she’s up against the very much in-form Petra Martic…
This should be a quality match with both players having superb clay-court seasons. Pliskova won Rome this month and is on a seven-match winning streak. Martic won Istanbul in April and has won nine of her last 10 matches on clay.
In the head-to-head, Pliskova won the most recent meeting (on hard courts) in Miami in March. But going back to 2013 and 2009, the overall match-up is 3-1 to Martic.
These two are in the Top 3 on the French Open website’s ‘Infosys Leaderboard’ – where a variety of statistics and performance data has been combined to generate a rating for each player.
With both women in such good form, it makes sense to back Martic as a kind of ‘saver bet’ for our big-price Name the Finalists pick that features Pliskova.
Rather than take the best price 6/4 (2.50) for Martic to win the match today, I prefer a Win Only bet on the Croatian at 50/1 or 40/1 in the Outright Winner market…
The winner of this match will be the favourite in the next round against either Kaia Kanepi or Veronika Kudermetova. And after that, a place in the quarter finals or beyond could see the winner play one of our other picks from this half of the draw, where we have Konta and Vondrousova running for us.
We’re on the search for an outsider winner at fancy odds in this wide-open looking Women’s French Open, and with Martic playing the tennis of her life right now (age 28), the World No.31 is well worth adding to the book.
With Pliskova the favourite to get through today, I’m recommending Martic as a Win Only bet (1 point stake) at 50/1 or 40/1, rather than doubling the stake by betting Each Way.
Play starts at 10am with Pliskova v Martic first on the main court, Philippe-Chatrier.
Today’s bet:
Women’s Outright Winner:
BET: Petra Martic @ 50/1
BOOKIES: 50/1 888 Sport, Unibet, Betfred, 40/1 general
I’ll be back tomorrow at 8am with your Bets of the Day for Saturday. We’ll be looking to get the Rollover running again soon, too.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson