Tennis Betting Advice - May 2019
Ones to Watch in Strasbourg – at 12/1 and 40/1…
Monday 20th May 2019
In your Ones to Watch email today:
The week before Paris…
I find myself writing to you a bit later than planned this Sunday evening. In fact, it’s now Monday…
Play starts in this week’s tournaments from 9am.
The bookies were a little slow in pricing up some of the Outright Winner markets. And there are a few differences in opinion in their prices, too.
You can’t blame them. The week before a Grand Slam is a tough one for backers & layers alike…
To give you a brief example. This time last year, this week’s four tournaments (ATP Geneva, ATP Lyon, WTA Strasbourg & WTA Nuremberg) saw seven of the eight finalists at 10/1+. And no fewer than five out of eight finalists at odds of 25/1 and bigger. The year before, this week on the calendar saw 100/1 and 300/1 runners-up.
With the French Open just a week away, we could see a few whacky results this week. In fact, we should expect them...
Any big names opting to play this week will have more than one eye on Roland Garros and should be avoided at short odds. On the other hand, players lower down the rankings will see this as an opportunity to put some hard-to-come-by silverware on the mantelpiece…
This week’s picks…
We were one set away from a 45/1 Each Way payout last week, with our 90/1 shot Diego Schwartzman pushing World No.1 Novak Djokovic to a deciding set in the ATP Rome Masters semi final.
We’re backing outsiders again today…
The list of previous winners at WTA Strasbourg is made up of powerful hitters. I’ve got seven of the last nine Strasbourg champions in the ‘muscle tennis’ category, including the last five of Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Sam Stosur (twice), Caroline Garcia and Monica Puig.
Two women tick the box as physical players with the desire to do well here. Our picks are in the same half of the draw, but can’t meet until the semi finals…
Two hard-hitting youngsters…
We’ve already seen a handful of first-time tournament winners on the WTA Tour this year, including three teenagers. In the top half of the Strasbourg draw, a 16-year-old from Ukraine by the name of Marta Kostyuk could be the next one to announce herself…
Kostyuk came through qualifying here with two straight-sets, 2-0 wins. That takes her season-to-date record on clay (at all tiers) to won 11 lost 3. Only a couple of players on the tour have won more.
Since the last week of April, Marta has reeled off quarter final and semi final runs at lower-tier ITF events, with three and four-match win streaks.
The youngster can carry that momentum through to this full-level WTA tournament – as an International level event, Strasbourg is in the lowest category of full WTA competitions.
With players in her section of the like of Caroline Garcia prone to slipping up against lower-ranked or unheralded opposition, odds of 40/1 and 33/1 make the 16-year-old Kostyuk One to Watch here.
Secondly, I can’t help but think Sofia Kenin is brewing up for another tournament run. The upcoming French Open looks to be a step too far for the ambitious 20-year-old American. But ‘Sonya’ – as she is known – is a fierce competitor and I’d expect her to give her all this week…
Indeed, Kenin garnered her first WTA trophy in similar circumstances earlier this year, winning WTA Hobart as an 18/1 shot, the week directly before the Australian Open.
Kenin pushed eventual WTA Rome champion Karolina Pliskova to a deciding set last week. Clay isn’t her best surface, but Sonya fits the bill as a powerful hitter able to dictate points and be aggressive on the Strasbourg courts.
With No.1 seed and highest-ranked player on show Ashleigh Barty looking a suspicious 11/4 (3.75) favourite this week, Kenin could prove a major threat in this part of the Strasbourg draw. Barty won the Doubles in Rome and the freshly-minted Top 10 player will surely be keen to keep herself fit for Paris.
At 12/1 Kenin goes in the book, too.
Today’s Ones to Watch picks:
Outright Winner:
WTA Strasbourg – Internationaux de Strasbourg
BET: Marta Kostyuk @ 40/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 40/1 (41.00) Skybet, 33/1 (34.00) William Hill, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook
BET: Sofia Kenin @ 12/1 Each Way
BOOKIES: 12/1 (13.00) Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook, 11/1 (12.00) William Hill, Ladbrokes, Coral
I’ll be back soon with more on this week’s tournaments, our next Rollover bet – and our plan of action for the French Open.
Enjoy the tennis…
Best wishes,
Tom Wilson